Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Tue Apr 7, 2026 11:39 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1037 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Key Messages:

* There is a moderate to high (30-70%) chance of showers and
  isolated thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday. The best rain
  chances will be Thursday and Friday.

* Near normal temperatures through late week with above normal
  temperatures by the weekend.

* A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Wednesday
  night.

* Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide late
  Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A series of weak mid to upper level disturbances will result in
unsettled weather with more beneficial rain possible across Deep
South Texas through late week. Light rain has started to develop
along the the lower Texas Coast this evening. Brownsville radar
currently indicates a large area of light rain developing near the
coast, which is in good agreement with the latest HRRR guidance.
There is a low (10 to 30 percent) rain chance overnight, mainly near
the coast. CAM guidance continues to suggest that rain showers with
isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the region
on Wednesday. There is a low to moderate (20 to 40 percent) rain
Wednesday then decreasing into early Wednesday night. A more potent
shortwave swings through the area Thursday into Friday. This will
lead to a moderate to high (40 to 70 percent) chance of rain showers
and thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday. Rain chances continue
into Saturday with moderate (30 to 50 percent) chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. A low (20 to 30 percent) chance of rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms linger into Sunday, mainly across
the ranchlands and the Gulf waters. Otherwise, drier conditions look
to return Sunday into Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a
general thunderstorm risk for both Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall
amounts between Wednesday through Saturday are expected between 0.25
and 1 inch, based on the latest NBM DESI and WPC guidance. Some
higher rainfall amounts (1 to 2 inches) will be possible, especially
across portions of the Rio Grande Plains.

Near normal temperatures are expected for tonight with lows falling
into the 60s area wide. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s, except for the mid 70s along the beaches.
Temperatures will steadily warm through the rest of the week into
the weekend as the onshore flow continues.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches overnight
with a moderate risk on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A coastal
Flood Statement may be needed for Wednesday morning into the
afternoon due to high tide levels combined with the persistent
onshore flow and long period swells.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Light east winds with cloud decks between 3500 to 6000 feet
prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Generally VFR
conditions are expected through late evening. Ceilings will likely
lower later tonight, after 06Z. There is a moderate (30 to 50
percent) chance of MVFR ceilings overnight into Wednesday morning.
MVFR ceilings may linger across the Rio Grande Valley in the
afternoon, especially at MFE. Will include PROB30s for periods of
SHRA`s and lower ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Moderate east winds and seas between around 4 feet prevail along the
Lower Texas Coast late this evening. Generally favorable conditions
are expected tonight through Thursday. Slightly adverse to adverse
conditions may develop Thursday night into the weekend as the
pressure gradient strengthens. Elevated winds and seas will likely
lead to exercise caution to low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions
as early as Friday on the Gulf waters. There is a low (20 to 30
percent) chance of rain tonight through Wednesday night and a
moderate (40 to 60 percent) rain/thunderstorm chance Thursday
through Saturday. Rain chances decrease by Saturday night with a
return of dry weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  66  79  69 /  10  30  30  20
HARLINGEN               80  62  81  64 /  10  20  30  20
MCALLEN                 82  66  83  69 /   0  20  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         82  64  81  68 /   0  10  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  71  76  71 /  10  20  30  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  67  79  68 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$