Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 1:18 AM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the
  week. Winds and seas will be highest on Wednesday and Thursday.
  Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should
  avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

- Minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores including Waveland
  and Shell Beach is expected on Wednesday afternoon between Noon
  and 8PM. This could result in upwards of 1 foot of water
  inundating low-lying roads near Shoreline Park and Venetian
  Isle. Additional minor coastal flooding could occur on Thursday
  afternoon, but confidence is lower in the tidal forecast at this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

After starting out on the chillier side with temps in the low 40s
in parts of the Florida Parishes and southern MS, we`ve quickly
warmed up into the 70s. Highs will be near average in the mid to
upper 70s as strong diurnally driven warming and fair skies
prevail. Min RH values are well into the upper 20s and 30s across
the area indicating quite dry conditions for our area, but
fortunately winds are just weak enough to mitigate more critical
fire weather conditions.

The shortwave mid-upper ridge overhead will quickly depart, and
another subtropical jet streak will advance across the Gulf
tonight into Wednesday. This will transport mid- upper moisture
and cloud cover from Texas over the northern Gulf coast into
Wednesday which will temper some of the more strongly diurnal
temperature fluctuations we`ve seen today. Additionally, the
pressure gradient will tighten on Wednesday along the southern
flank of the strong eastern CONUS surface high as weak pressure
falls occur in the southeast Gulf. This will strengthen the
easterly fetch into the northern Gulf coast with a slightly more
southerly component to the wind direction allowing gradual
moistening of the area. Winds will increase especially for the
southshore with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

The key difference in the forecast from prior days is that model
guidance has shifted the tightest part of the pressure gradient
axis on the southern flank of the surface high farther offshore.
This affects multiple variables in the forecast leading to
lowering of PoPs and weakening of peak winds midweek into the
weekend. The predominant mode of convection will be induced by
afternoon heating along the coastal areas if any at all as the
forecast wholesale is much drier than prior days for the latter
half of the week.

By the weekend, a large upper ridge will be dominating much of
the central and eastern CONUS as a train of larger troughs
approach the west coast and lead us into a more active pattern for
next week. This will also mean high temperatures warm back above
average into the 80s once again. Latest ensemble guidance has
continued to support a deepening trough across the western CONUS
to start next week with most members indicating this trough will
lift through the central plains and midwest. If this were to
transpire, the main forcing and environment favorable for severe
weather would remain well to our north and west with the only
precipitation coming from leftover convection along a decaying
front. Something to watch, but no clear indication of any severe
weather potential for our area at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions through this cycle. Again the main story through
the aviation forecast period will be the persistent easterly flow.
Terminals along the coast will likely hang on to moderate easterly
flow with some gusts in excess of 20 knots. Inland, a bit weaker,
but some gusts 15-20kt will be possible during peak afternoon
heating before the atmosphere decouples allowing winds to relax
around or shortly after sunset. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A strong area of high pressure positioned across the eastern U.S.
will provide a persistent easterly fetch across the coastal waters
through the entire week. This will keep marine weather conditions
hazardous for inexperienced mariners and operators of small crafts
through much of the week and small craft headlines are already in
effect. The highest winds and seas are likely to be on Wednesday and
Thursday where sustained winds will be 20 to 25 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots, especially east of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Wave heights in the unprotected open waters will also approach 7 to
10 feet during the peak of these winds. Hazardous marine conditions
are likely to persist through Thursday before gradually relaxing on
Friday and into the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens.

While the strongest part of the easterly fetch has trended farther
offshore, PETSS guidance still continues to support minor coastal
flooding across east-facing shores of St. Bernard, eastern
Orleans, southeast St. Tammany, and Hancock County on Wednesday
afternoon. We will see how this tidal forecast verifies and this
will provide greater confidence on whether coastal flood headlines
will be needed also on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$