Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 2:39 AM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local Nor`easter Conditions through Thursday, resulting in
  Gale Force Winds Across the Coastal Waters through Tonight
  and Life Threatening surf zone conditions through the End of
  the Week.

- Gusty Winds Along the NE FL Coast/St Johns River Wind
  Advisory.

- Red Flag Warning for Inland Southeast GA this Afternoon

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong onshore winds; Coastal Wind Advisory

- Red Flag Conditions for inland SE GA

- Life-threatening Surf Zone Conditions

The second punch of strong northeasterly winds will unfold today as
strong ridging wedges southward down the eastern seaboard further
tightening the gradients. Winds will be stronger today compared to
yesterday with better mixing anticipated. That said, sustained winds
are likely to reach Wind Advisory levels for areas along the I-95
corridor and along the St Johns River basin. Peak winds are expected
between 1 PM and 5 PM this afternoon and gusts over this period may
register in the 45-50 mph ranger at the beaches. The current Wind
Advisory will be expanded slightly inland after 9 AM and last
through Midnight tonight. Gradients will slowly relax but breezy to
gusty winds are expected at the coast through the early hours
Thursday.

In addition to the wind, the convergent onshore flow will send
shallow inverted troughs inland which will advect scattered to
numerous showers off the Atlantic inland with best chances of a
quarter to half inch of rainfall will be along the NE FL coast.
Instability will be generally below 500 J/kg and focused in the
lower levels which should limit the potential for t`storms to
isolated at best today and tonight.

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies and the onshore flow will keep
temperatures on the cooler side again today with highs only
reaching the low 70s this afternoon. Inland lows will be similar
to this morning especially across SE GA and Suwannee Valley
where a drier airmass resides and reading will be in the low mid
50s. Warmer lows are expected across NE FL, reading in the low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Conditions Gradually Easing Each Day
- High Risk for Rip Currents & Elevated Surf Persist at Beaches

Though onshore flow continues during this period, overall trend will
be a gradual relaxation of the pressure gradient throughout both
Thursday and Friday as high pressure weakens to our north and
coastal troughing accordingly. With this trend will also come more
consistent breaks in cloud cover across the region, and therefore a
warming temperature trend as well. The only significant
hazards/concerns during this time frame will be beach/coastal
hazards which are likely to continue, specifically high risk of
dangerous rip currents and as well as surf heights in the 7-10 foot
range. High temps will remain in the 70s on Thursday with breezier
flow continuing, bumping up to the mid to upper 70s east and low 80s
west by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming Temperatures & Fair/Dry Conditions Throughout the Long
Term Period

Drier and fair weather is expected throughout the entirety of the
weekend and into at least early next week as high pressure re-
establishes to our north on Saturday, slowly sliding off the US east
coast early next week. Ridging will also remain firmly in place
aloft, increasing subsidence and therefore unfortunately favoring a
dry period for drought conditions to continue. Ridging aloft with an
overall weaker flow favors temps above normal throughout the long
term period, especially inland as flow direction will remain
primarily onshore.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Waves of showers through the rest of the morning hours and through
the period will lead to periodic visibility restrictions and cloud
bases falling to MVFR levels. Northeasterly winds will become gusty
areawide this morning between 11z-13z as a reinforcing wind surge
reaches the forecast area with gusts up to 40 knots at airfields
near the immediate coast (KSSI/KSGJ) this afternoon and up to 35
knots at the Jax Metro airfields this afternoon. Peak winds are
expected between 18z-23z with only a gradual decrease in after 00z
this evening. Between 06z and 12z, there may be strong northeasterly
low level wind shear up to 40 kts, mainly at inland airfields where
surface winds have trended calm.

&&

.MARINE...

A reinforcing surge of northeasterly winds today will continue
frequent gale force gusts across the waters through Tonight while
waves of numerous showers and isolated storms remain possible as
coastal trough develop and push eastward across the waters.
Northeast winds will slowly decrease Thursday into Friday and more
so Friday into the weekend. Like winds, seas will lower through
Friday bu anticipate elevated seas to linger through the weekend,
especially offshore.

Rip Currents and Surf:

The reinforced surge of onshore winds will keep a high risk of
rip currents through Thursday. As the strongest winds during
this event arrive today breakers will rise to 10-13 feet. The
surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-threatening
to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high
breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Northeasterly wind event continues today across the region, with
more cloud cover and scattered showers across northeast FL with more
breaks in the clouds across southeast GA on average. Along with
breezy conditions persisting area-wide, much better mixing with
lower daytime RH will result in conditions NEAR Red Flag Warning
across southeast GA, as well as areas of high dispersions. Gradual
clearing Thursday and through Friday will allow patchy/areas of high
dispersions to spread across the entirety of the area, even as the
stronger onshore winds subside. MinRH values are likely to remain
below 35 percent across interior GA during this time frame. Onshore
winds continue to subside by this weekend, with drier conditions
spreading inland as well as elevated dispersions likely to continue.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
over night next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  49  75  51 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  68  59  69  62 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  70  59  73  58 /  50  30  30  10
SGJ  73  62  73  63 /  70  50  50  20
GNV  73  58  76  56 /  50  30  30   0
OCF  74  61  77  59 /  60  30  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight
     for FLZ024-132-137-225-425.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ038-124-125-
     138-233-325-333-433-533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight
     for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.
     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for GAZ132>135.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470-
     472-474.

&&

$$