Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 2:51 AM

AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
144 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Moderate rainfall chances this weekend

- Increasing temperatures rest of the week

- Potential minor coastal flooding daily

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A mid-level trough over the Southern Plains is progged to translate
eastward through the rest of the week. Leaving a northwesterly flow
in its wake. The next chance for some rain across South Texas will
be this weekend as a shortwave moves across the region combined with
PWATs that are progged to exceed the 75th percentile with the GEFS
ensemble mean around 1.50". Currently have forecasted a low chance
for precipitation beginning on Thursday increasing to a moderate
chance by Thursday night through Friday then decreasing to a low
chance through Sunday. Daytime highs currently hovering around the
mid 70s to low 80s will persist for the rest of the work week before
trending up with highs into the 90s out west by late this
weekend/early next workweek. Tonight our northern counties will say
goodbye to lows in the 50s as nighttime temperatures slowly creep up
to near or around 70 degrees by early next week across the region.

Minor coastal flooding will continue to be an issue along the Middle
Texas Coast this week as recent observations have revealed water
reaching or nearly reaching the dunes during high tide. Guidance has
not had a good handle on the inundation. In addition, tidal levels
are progged to slowly increase in response to persistent onshore
flow and long period swell. P-ETSS guidance has been underdone over
the last few days with predicted levels around 1.5 ft MSL but levels
have been running around 1 ft MSL above predicted so expect periods
of minor coastal flooding during times of high tide to continue
through late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist over the next couple of
hours. MVFR ceiling are expected to creep in from the west over
sites LRD,COT, and eventually making it to ALI. This is expected
to persist through the morning and portions of the afternoon in
some spots (COT and LRD). Elsewhere VFR conditions will persist
through the TAF cycle with relatively light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

An onshore gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze will become moderate
to fresh (BF 4-5) late this weekend. Low rain chances over the
waters increases to a moderate chance Thursday through Saturday as a
shortwave moves across South Texas and interacts with above normal
moisture.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A mid-level disturbance and abundant moisture will lead to a low
chance for precipitation on Thursday, increasing to a moderate
chance by Thursday night through Friday then decreasing to a low
chance early Saturday through Sunday. Light winds and elevated RH
values are progged through the rest of the week with a window of
increased winds Saturday. Elevated fire weather conditions are not
expected throughout this forecast period as ERC values hover around
the 30th percentile and Min RH values generally around 40-60%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  67  80  67 /  10   0  40  60
Victoria          81  61  82  64 /  10   0  40  40
Laredo            81  68  81  67 /  20  10  60  50
Alice             81  64  82  65 /  20   0  40  50
Rockport          79  68  80  69 /  10  10  30  60
Cotulla           81  64  81  67 /  10   0  40  40
Kingsville        79  65  81  65 /  20   0  40  50
Navy Corpus       76  69  78  69 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$