Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 3:12 AM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy conditions will continue through Thursday.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue
  through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Currently at the surface, a broad area of high pressure sits over
the eastern seaboard, while a surface low continues to develop east
of Florida along the stalled frontal boundary. As this low pulls
away to the northeast today and Thursday, a moist airmass will
continue to stream into the Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic
along and north of that stalled front. This setup will result in
continued breezy and rainy conditions, with scattered to numerous
showers in the forecast for today and Thursday. Despite the high
rain chances, the precipitation is forecast to be rather light,
with 48-hour QPFs of around a half an inch or less across west
central and southwest Florida, with the greatest rain chances and
QPFs generally over the interior. That said, a few lucky spots
could see slightly higher totals if deeper convection manages to
push far enough west into the forecast area. With the cloudy skies
and breezy northeast winds, temperatures will remain several
degrees below normal this afternoon, then temperatures will
gradually warm up Thursday through the weekend as sunshine starts
to return.

Friday through early next week, the surface ridge will settle south
into Florida, bringing drier and sunnier conditions, with highs
warming back up into the mid to upper 80s by the start of next
week. After some slight chances of rain Friday, rain chances
during the weekend and early next week are forecast to be near
zero.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Cloudy and at times rainy conditions will continue today, with
MVFR and perhaps some IFR level stratus expected through at least
the mid morning hours. Although ceilings should begin to improve
after around 14z, some periods of mainly MVFR conditions could
continue to impact area terminals throughout the day. Chances for
rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon and early evening, with rain moving east to west across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High pressure north of the waters and a developing area of low
pressure southeast of Florida are keeping breezy northeast winds
in place, with Small Craft Advisory conditions lasting through
Thursday night, and occasional periods of gusts up to near gale
force possible. Rain chances will also remain elevated today and
Thursday. Winds and seas will slowly improve Friday through the
weekend, although easterly surges will bring winds back up to
cautionary or perhaps advisory levels each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

No humidity concerns as deep moisture produces scattered to numerous
showers and a few storms today and Thursday. Breezy winds will
produce high dispersion indices each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  67  81  65 /  50  30  40   0
FMY  82  67  82  67 /  50  30  50  10
GIF  76  65  79  63 /  60  30  60  10
SRQ  79  66  81  65 /  50  30  40   0
BKV  77  61  80  59 /  50  30  40   0
SPG  79  69  82  68 /  50  30  30   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$