Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 3:39 AM

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
327 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

* Although somewhat stable conditions will prevail today across PR
  and the USVI, some passing showers will move across the windward
  and the USVI at times, followed by limited afternoon convection,
  which will promote a limited risk of flooding across PR`s
  northwest quadrant this afternoon.

* Afternoon convection affecting PR`s western locations will
  result in a limited to elevated risk of flooding each day.

* We have a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents along
  most beaches in PR and the USVI today, with the risk becoming
  high along the north- and east-facing beaches of PR from
  Thursday onward.

* Coastal sites in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands can
  expect breezy winds each day.

* Near to above-normal heat indices will prevail through at least
  Thursday, especially at coastal and urban sites, where elevated
  heat indices will increase the risk of heat-related impacts,
  especially for individuals outdoors without adequate hydration
  or cooling.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

Calm weather conditions prevailed tonight under a southeast wind
flow. Some showers moved inland across the south and east coasts
of PR, brushing the northern US Virgin Islands, but without
leaving significant rainfall. Most of the islands were under
mostly clear skies, allowing radiational cooling overnight, so
minimum temperatures dropped into the mid and low 70s along
coastal sites and into the low and mid 60s along mountain sites.

A somewhat stable atmosphere will build over the Northeast
Caribbean as a weak mid- to upper-level ridge finally sets aloft.
Meanwhile, the surface high pressure over the central Atlantic
will hold an approaching frontal boundary off to the northwest of
the region, maintaining a southeast wind flow that will turn
breezy at times, especially along the coastline of PR and the
USVI. Model guidance continues to indicate the potential to
observe above-normal maximum temperatures each afternoon,
resulting in warmer to locally hot indices, especially at urban
and coastal sites.

Under the aforementioned weather pattern, we can expect
occasional showers to be advected across the windward areas of PR
and the USVI, followed by better afternoon convection across the
interior and western portions of PR. Keep in mind that this
activity will maintain a limited to elevated risk of flooding
across these locations each day.


&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

Conditions will remain near seasonal values for this time of year on
Saturday. Periods of passing showers are expected during the morning
hours across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
followed by afternoon convection over western Puerto Rico. At this
time, limited ponding of water is expected across western Puerto
Rico on Saturday.

Beginning Sunday, conditions will gradually become more unstable as
an approaching deep-layered trough, combined with above-normal
moisture, supports increasing shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. Model guidance continues to suggest a transition
toward a wetter and more unstable pattern.

At this time, the wettest period is expected from Monday into
Tuesday, when widespread showers and thunderstorms will be more
likely. However, given the extended forecast range, confidence
remains moderate regarding the magnitude of the potential flooding
and lightning threats.

By midweek, conditions should gradually return to near-normal for
this time of year, although lingering moisture may continue to
support scattered shower activity across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will continue from the
southeast at 5 to 10 knots through 08/13z. After that, we expect
winds between 10 and 20 kt with sea breeze variations. Some
SHRA/+SHRA will move across the windward terminals (IST/ISX/JPS),
then between 08/15-23z SHRA/+SHRA, and some isolated TSRA will
form near JBQ, and possibly near JSJ. Winds will turn calm to
light and VRB aft 08/23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

Moderate to locally fresh southeasterly trades will continue through
at least tonight. Thereafter, a broad surface high pressure
extending from the Central Atlantic will promote moderate trades
across the regional waters through the weekend. A 2 feet long period
northeasterly swell will spread across the local waters from late
today through Thursday, and will be followed by a 4 feet northwest
to north swell from Friday onward. These swells will keep seas
around 4 to 6 feet in general, and small craft should mainly
exercise caution across the Atlantic waters and local passages.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 323 AM AST Wed Apr 8 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail across most local
beaches. However, a small, but long period northeasterly swell will
arrive late today and linger through Thursday. This could increase
the risk of life-threatening rip currents across the northern and
eastern beaches of the islands. Another swell, from the north to
northwest is expected to spread across the Atlantic waters and
passages from Friday onward, keeping an elevated threat for life-
threatening rip currents through the weekend.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$