Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 3:57 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Freeze Warning remains in effect for portions of central
VA and the interior MD eastern shore this morning, with additional
Frost/Freeze headline potential tonight/Thu AM.

2) Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures
Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average but still seasonable,
followed by a well above normal period Monday- Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Freeze Warning remains in effect for portions of central
VA and the interior MD eastern shore this morning, with additional
Frost/Freeze headline potential tonight/Thu AM.

Strong high pressure (~1037mb) is centered across central NY
state, with a W-NW flow aloft in association with a subtle upper
level trough off the mid-Atlantic and NE coast. The sky is
clear, and conditions are quite dry with RH values still at or
below 50% over most of the region. Winds are fairly light
inland, but the airmass is still well mixed and temperatures
remain above freezing area-wide thus far. The Freeze Warning
remains in effect over portions of central VA to the N and W of
metro Richmond, and over the interior of the MD eastern shore.
Given the dry airmass, no frost is expected this morning even
within the Freeze Warning. Given the very low dew pts, still
expect to see at least some areas drop as low as freeing or
slightly below through 7 AM as the sfc high slowly builds to the
east and ridges S into the local area. Farther south, expects
min temps to fall into the mid 30s by sunrise, with areas closer
to the coast staying much warmer (bottoming out in the 40s) due
to a persistent NE wind off the water. Very dry with full
sunshine expected today, but high temperatures will be about 10
degrees below average inland, and ~15 degrees below normal
closer to the coast. RH values today will again be quite dry
well inland while the cool onshore flow will allow fro somewhat
higher values closer to the coast. Overall, Fire WX concerns
today are not high enough to warrant any IFDs given that the
places with wind closer to the coast will see higher RH values
while the drier inland zones will generally have winds at or
below 10 mph. By tonight, models remain consistent with the
strong sfc high building east and becoming centered along the
coast of New England, ridging down into the Carolina coastal
plain. This setup will favor better radiational cooling and less
mixing overnight for inland areas. In addition, the onshore flow
will bring somewhat higher dew pts along the eastern 1/2 of the
area, and with decoupling inland, T/Td depressions and high RH
is likely. Therefore, frost formation is likely for much of the
region with lows in the low-mid 30s. Will allow the current
Freeze headlines to expire before issuing any additional
products, but given a consistent model trend, headlines are
probable for inland areas. Lows are marginal, so right now it
would appear that this would most likely be handled with Frost
Advisories, though some localized Freeze Warnings in the
piedmont and the MD eastern shore are possible- will allow the
dayshift to make the call.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next
week. Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average
but still seasonable, followed by a well above normal period
Monday-Wednesday.

After a cold start, temperatures rebound closer to average
Thursday as the sfc high gradually weakens and shifts farther
off the coast. The next upper level trough moves from the upper
midwest to eastern Canada and New England Fri into Sat, with a
weakening cold front dropping S into the mid-Atlantic. This will
bring more clouds Saturday, but most models keep the area dry
(as does the NBM). Temperature warm into the 70s for most areas
Friday, but then will cool off a bit by Sunday on the ern shore
and near the coast as the low level flow turns back to onshore.
Beyond that, next week will be very warm with highs well into
the 80s, possibly around 90F Tue-Wed. The already dry
conditions will very likely worsen as rain chances are basically
zero through the middle of next week, with 00Z/08 GFS/ECMWF/CMC
ensembles showing less than a 50% chc for 0.50" of total
rainfall through the end of next week as the SE upper ridge
continues to keep any significant rain chances N and W of the
region.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail for the next several days. Mainly
SKC today and this evening, with some stratocumulus potentially
moving into SE VA and NE NC overnight. CIGs would likely be low
end VFR to MVFR is this scenario does occur. Otherwise, gusty NE
winds continue along the coast, especially at ORF/ECG, while
winds inland will be E-NE at 10 kt or less. Diminishing winds
tonight all areas.


Outlook: Somewhat elevated E-NE winds at ORF/ECG Thursday, but
easterly winds will be less than 10 kt elsewhere. Dry with VFR
conditions through Saturday- there is a weakening cold front
Saturday that will bring some clouds, but rain chances look very
limited.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds remain elevated this morning and into the afternoon before
the gradient starts to relax later today and into tonight.

- Elevated seas will maintain SCA on the ocean from tonight through
at least late Thu night/Friday, and possibly into the upcoming
weekend.

Strong high pressure (~1035 mb) is set up across the eastern Great
Lakes, while an area of low pressure is east of the Florida
Peninsula in the north Atlantic. The gradient across our area
remains tightened, and with the high pushing down a good amount of
cold air, winds remain strong across the local waters this morning.
Marine observation sites are measuring 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30
kts across the Bay, with winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to ~30 kts in
the southern coastal waters. Winds are a touch weaker in the
northern coastal waters, but still remain within SCA criteria. Seas
have started to come up, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft (lowest in
northern waters, highest in southern waters). The aforementioned
high will shift offshore today and tonight, but remain stretched
across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, which will maintain a NE wind
across the local waters. The gradient will begin to relax during the
day today, though SCA winds and wind gusts are still expected across
the Lower Bay and southern coastal waters through at least the
afternoon due to a channeling effect. While winds will start to come
down today into tonight, seas will remain elevated due to the long
fetch of NE winds. There is a good chance that seas across the
southern waters over perform, as that is common in this NE wind
regime. The prolonged period of ENE winds will keep seas elevated in
the coastal waters and mouth of the Chesapeake Bay through at least
Friday, so the SCA has been extended through then, and may need to
be extended into the early weekend even as winds turn offshore
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
     064-068-069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$