Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 6:09 AM

AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Key West FL
557 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...Corrected the direction of the swell...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane
  across the forecast area today and tonight.

- Coastal Flood Statements are out for the Middle and Upper Keys
  because of a strong northwest swell.

- Breezy conditions expected tomorrow night. Medium to high
  confidence that breezy to windy weather will last through at
  least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
A messy weather pattern will greet those across the Florida Keys
this morning. A frontal boundary is slowly moving across the Keys
coastal waters, providing a source of lift for the moisture-rich
environment. Last night`s KKEY sounding sampled an environmental
PWAT above the 90th percentile for the day, which is corroborated
by GOES-East derived precipitable water. While moisture and a
source of lift are present, the front has lost most of its
characteristics. Breezes across the Keys are northeasterly along
the reef and in the bayside waters. A clear difference in dew
point is not obvious over Southern Florida compared to the Keys.
The front is a lingering boundary that will allow showers to wax
and wane across the Florida Keys today and tonight. Expect another
damp and humid day.

The slow nature of the front does cause a couple of issues.
Gale force breezes are present along the Florida Peninsula, which
are responsible for the elevated swell in the western waters.
Fresh to strong breezes are expected to reach the Florida Keys
waters sometime on Thursday, and breezy conditions may start as
early as Thursday evening. Drier air will struggle to filter into
the Florida Keys. Statistical guidance suggests dew points will
stay closer to the upper 60s through Saturday. Numerical model
soundings suggest that a dry air mass associated with higher
pressure over the eastern United States will take until Sunday to
Monday to reach the Keys. After the dry air moves in, there is
medium to high confidence that drier, breezy to windy conditions
will persist through at least early next week. The trend of
persistent blocking patterns continues.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle and Upper
Keys. From synopsis, a stalled frontal boundary near the Florida
Keys is responsible for the slow moving showers across the Keys
coastal waters. Seas will be elevated in the western marine zones
due to a northwest swell. While light to gentle breezes will
prevail through tonight, the front is forecast to move south of
the Keys by tomorrow morning. Dry air and fresh breezes will surge
in behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming
TAF period. Lingering boundaries in the vicinity of the island
chain may allow showers to form near the Keys. There is medium
confidence in a cloud line developing near the terminals in the
afternoon. VCSH is included to account for this scenario.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  71  82  72 /  40  40  30  20
Marathon  82  71  81  73 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$