Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 6:27 AM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
609 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High Surf Advisory issued for the beaches of Georgetown County
SC and New Hanover County NC. A Fire Danger Statement has been
issued for much of northeast SC today. Cool, dry, and breezy
conditions will continue today. Updated aviation discussion
with 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated fire weather conditions continue today.

2) Hazardous marine conditions will persist through the end of
the work-week with leftover NE-E swell continuing into Sat.

3) Hazardous surf conditions today thru Thu followed by a slow
subsiding trend Fri into the weekend.

4) Below normal temperatures through Thursday night.
Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Elevated fire weather conditions continue
today.

Very dry air exists over the Carolinas, sourced from high
pressure over the northeastern US. PW values are forecast to
drop to around the climatological minimum for this data at
0.22". An increased pressure gradient between strong high
pressure to our north and a frontal boundary well offshore will
maintain elevated winds. Gusts this afternoon will peak near
20-25 mph. This, combined with minimum RH in the mid 20%s to
around 30% will lead to increased fire danger through early this
evening. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for most of
northeast South Carolina, excluding coastal areas where onshore
flow will keep minimum RH in the low to mid 30%s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Hazardous marine conditions will persist
through the end of the work-week with leftover NE-E swell
continuing into Sat.

See Marine Section below for details.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Hazardous surf conditions today thru Thu
followed by a slow subsiding trend Fri into the weekend.

Prolonged and strong northeast winds will lead to elevated
surf conditions along the coasts of both Southeast NC and
Northeast SC. Wave/swell direction will remain from the NE thru
ENE, affecting all area beaches. Portions of the ILM CWA Beaches
will likely observe 6+ foot surf conditions, (head high plus),
on a consistent basis today and continuing into much of Thu.
Particularly the E to ESE facing beaches of Georgetown County
SC and New Hanover County NC. This may need to be expanded into
Horry County SC and/or Pender County NC based on buoy obs,
lifeguard and surf reports later today. Six+ foot surf on a
consistent basis will require the issuance of a High Surf
Advisory which will run from 6am Wed thru 8 pm Thu for NH and G
Counties for the time being.

The large surf conditions will result in elevated rip current
risk today thru Sat across all beaches, with high rip risk
mainly occurring along E-SE facing beaches. In addition, strong
north to south longshore currents will also occur along those
same E/SE facing beaches due to the strong and gusty NE winds
thru Thu.


KEY MESSAGE 4... Below normal temperatures through Thursday
night.

Unseasonably cool airmass remains in place due to high pressure to
the north through tomorrow night. The coldest temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the upper 30s inland. Elevated winds
around 10 mph will maintain low level mixing. Despite the cold
temperatures, winds will be too high to consider the potential for
frost.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Northeasterly winds will gust up to 25 knots today,
potentially higher near the coast. A surface trough
approaching the coast could bring a brief period of MVFR
tonight.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR through the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... A wedge of high pressure has moved into the
Carolinas. The gradient between high pressure over the interior
of the region and a lingering frontal boundary offshore will
continue to produce strong winds offshore through Thursday.
Winds will peak this morning with gusts up to 40 knots possible.
Gale conditions will continue through tonight. Probabilities
hint at gusts becoming less frequent late tonight into Thursday,
but cold air advection over the relatively warmer waters should
produce an effective mixing environment. By late this morning,
seas are expected to build up to 6-9 feet with little change
anticipated through early Thursday.

Thursday through Sunday night...Thursday thru Friday will
feature the center of the expansive sub 1040mb high moving
offshore from the NE States. This will result in a slow
weakening of the wedge of high pressure across the Carolinas,
especially during Fri which in turn will result in the slow
relaxation of the sfc pg across the area waters. Looking at
strong SCA conditions, from both winds and seas, Thu thru Thu
night...and the SCA during Fri into Fri night, mainly from the
seas given the long NE fetch from which the seas have been
building upon. SCA conditions, from leftover seas, should cease
during Fri night, or daybreak Sat the latest. This will leave a
favorable boating weekend as the center of high pressure affects
the local waters Sat with light winds. Backdoor cold front Sun
should remain just north of the area waters at its most southern
point late Sun. Seas still remain elevated Sat but do further
subside going into Sun, and mainly comprised of an ENE-E swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$