Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 6:33 AM

AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
532 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the
  week. Winds and seas will be highest today and Thursday.
  Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should
  avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

- Minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores and tidal lakes is
  expected during high tide cycles today and especially Thursday
  afternoon. This could result in upwards of 1 foot of water
  inundating low-lying roads.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Another cool morning across the northshore with temperatures here
at ASD dropping into the upper 40s, which again similar to the
last couple of days is a bit cooler than NBM guidance has
suggested. Already made adjustments through sunrise this morning,
however, even then it may not be enough based on trends over the
last hour or so.

Today there will be a subtle H5 impulse located over the region,
which may help spark some shower and thunderstorm activity
offshore within the moderate easterly (more moist) surface flow.
Any shower activity should stay confined to coastal Louisiana or
points south over the open waters. The persistent to strong
easterly flow will help pile water onto eastern facing shores.
This will cause some minor coastal flooding this afternoon around
noon through the afternoon hours, especially for the more
vulnerable locations of Shell Beach and Waveland.

Going into Thursday the upper flow transitions quickly to a dry
northwest flow and back to a zonal flow leading to slightly warmer
temperatures overnight and during the day. At the surface, the
moderate to strong easterly fetch over the northern Gulf
continues. At this point with water pushing into the lake
additional coastal flood advisories were needed during high tide
on Thursday for eastern facing shores as well as lakeshores around
the tidal lakes during the late morning and into the afternoon
hours. There does appear to be at least a subtle uptick in rain
chances on Thursday, mostly along and south of I10. The overall
QPF signal is weak so lower end POPs for now along the immediate
coast should suffice with the best potential being during the
afternoon hours.

Going into the weekend the surface fetch does slightly weaken and
tides do quickly decrease limiting the need for additional coastal
flood headlines. Upper heights rise as an H5 ridge builds over the
western Gulf early in the weekend. This will continue to help
temps increase just a bit with some locations warming back into
the 80s to round out the short term period. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

By the second half of the weekend, any residual coastal flooding
should be easing. While winds over the coastal waters will remain
elevated, we will be moving into more of a neap tide cycle with
smaller tide ranges between the astronomical high and low tides.
Current probabilistic guidance indicates the 90th percentile
forecasts barely reaching HAT levels (meaning the normal highest
astronomical tides of the year), which is below flood stage at most,
if not all sites.

No significant changes look to be on tap from previous thinking in
the longer term forecasts. The local area will be under the
influence of at least weak ridging aloft with warmer than normal
temperatures and no significant rain chances. Any disturbances
moving through the midlevel flow look to ride the periphery of the
ridge, with any associated surface fronts stalling well before
reaching the local area. (DM)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions through this cycle. Again the main story through
the aviation forecast period will be the persistent easterly flow.
Terminals along the coast will likely hang on to moderate easterly
flow with some gusts in excess of 20 knots. Inland, a bit weaker,
but some gusts 15-20kt will be possible during peak afternoon
heating before the atmosphere decouples allowing winds to relax
around or shortly after sunset. (Frye)
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A strong area of high pressure positioned across the eastern U.S.
will provide a persistent easterly fetch across the coastal waters
through the week. This will keep marine weather conditions hazardous
for inexperienced mariners and operators of small crafts. Small
Craft Advisories are already ongoing at this time. The highest winds
and seas are likely to be Today and Thursday where sustained winds
will be 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, especially east of
the mouth of the Mississippi River. Wave heights in the unprotected
open waters will also approach 7 to 10 feet during the peak of these
winds. Hazardous marine conditions are likely to persist through the
end of the week before gradually relaxing into the upcoming weekend
as the pressure gradient weakens slightly. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ058-060-069-070-076>078-080-082-084-087.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$