Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 7:03 AM

AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
654 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Low RH values and breezy conditions will yield an elevated
  fire danger today and Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement is in
  effect for most of the forecast area today.

- 2) There is a High Risk of rip currents at all area beaches
  today and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low RH values and breezy conditions will yield an
elevated fire danger today and Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement is
in effect for most of the forecast area today.

As high pressure continues to build into the area, drier air
will be advected into the region. Dew points this afternoon are
forecast to dip into the upper 20s far inland, with 30s
elsewhere west of I-95. With high temperatures in the upper 60s
to low 70s forecast, minimum RH values will be in the low 20s
across Jenkins/Allendale/Screven Counties, with <30% elsewhere
west of I-95. While RH values are expected to remain elevated
along the immediate beaches, across Charleston/Coastal
Colleton/Berkeley Counties RH values could drop as low as 30%
away from the beaches. Breezy NE winds are expected today as the
high pressure builds into the region, with gusts generally
20-25 mph. The highest gusts are expected along the immediate
coastline, where gusts could approach 30 to as high as 35 mph.
The combination of the gusty winds, the low RHs, and dry fuels
will create an elevated fire danger today. A Fire Danger
Statement is in effect for most of the forecast area from 11 AM
this morning through 7 PM this evening.

Lake Moultrie: Breezy northeast winds will strengthen early this
morning, becoming sustained near 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.
A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for Lake Moultrie, valid
through noon today. Winds will remain breezy throughout the day, but
below Lake Wind thresholds.

Conditions look to improve on Thursday, with RH values slightly
higher than today and lower wind gusts as well. However, far
inland zones could see near critical RH/wind gusts and an
additional Fire Danger Statement cannot be ruled out.


KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a High Risk of rip currents at all area
beaches today and Thursday.

Strong NE winds and building swells will result in a High Risk
for rip currents at all area beaches today and Thursday. High
Risk for rip currents will likely continue into Friday at all
area beaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prevailing VFR through the 12Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
Gusty NE winds will surge this morning to 10 to 25 knots, with
gusts to 30 knots possible. Wind gusts could reach as high as 35
knots at KJZI. Gusts will diminish around sunset at all
terminals, with sustained winds remaining around 10 knots
through the overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR, with breezy NE winds continuing into
Thursday before weakening overnight into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Strong NE winds will continue through the week as a wedge of
high pressure begins to move off the northeast coast, with seas
remaining unsettled and hazardous. The strongest winds are expected
today as the pinched gradient is tightest, leading to Gales across
all waters. Did upgrade the Charleston Harbor to a Gale Warning as
it is looking that at least the mouth of the harbor will see gales
into the earl afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) needed
once the winds decrease out of gale strength. The breezy winds will
lead to impressive wave heights, near 8 feet along the coast and up
towards 16 feet ~40-60 nm out in the zone from Savannah to Altamaha
Sound.

Thursday - Sunday: While the general trend is for winds to decrease
overnight into Thursday, which would allow for the gales to expire
as currently planned, some model guidance continues to suggest that
gales may linger into Thursday afternoon. Latest 00Z models indicate
the risk is generally near 20+nm out in the waters from South
Santee, SC to Savannah, GA. The potential for gales diminishes
greatly by Thursday evening and once the Gale Warnings come down,
they will need to be replaced by SCA`s. Winds will likely come down
below SCA thresholds on Friday, but seas could remain quite elevated
through Saturday. Models are indicating another surface high
pressure may form Saturday into Sunday off the northeast coast,
though winds do not appear to be as strong as the current system.

High Surf: With very strong northeast winds across the coastal
waters, seas are building quickly this morning. 5+ ft breaker waves
in the surf zone continue to be expected, especially for the beaches
south of Charleston County, and there remains a High Surf Advisory
in effect from 8 am Wednesday through 8 pm Thursday. At least minor
beach erosion can be expected with the combination of strong and
persistent northeast winds with 5+ ft breakers in the surf zone.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ048>051.
     Lake Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ045.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ330.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$