Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 7:24 AM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
616 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Key Messages:

* There is a moderate to high (30-70%) chance of showers and
  isolated thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday. The best rain
  chances will be Thursday and Friday.

* Near normal temperatures through late week with above normal
  temperatures by the weekend.

* A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Wednesday
  night.

* Minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide late
  Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A series of weak mid to upper level disturbances will result in
unsettled weather with more beneficial rain possible across Deep
South Texas through late week. Light rain has started to develop
along the the lower Texas Coast this evening. Brownsville radar
currently indicates a large area of light rain developing near the
coast, which is in good agreement with the latest HRRR guidance.
There is a low (10 to 30 percent) rain chance overnight, mainly near
the coast. CAM guidance continues to suggest that rain showers with
isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the region
on Wednesday. There is a low to moderate (20 to 40 percent) rain
Wednesday then decreasing into early Wednesday night. A more potent
shortwave swings through the area Thursday into Friday. This will
lead to a moderate to high (40 to 70 percent) chance of rain showers
and thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday. Rain chances continue
into Saturday with moderate (30 to 50 percent) chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. A low (20 to 30 percent) chance of rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms linger into Sunday, mainly across
the ranchlands and the Gulf waters. Otherwise, drier conditions look
to return Sunday into Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a
general thunderstorm risk for both Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall
amounts between Wednesday through Saturday are expected between 0.25
and 1 inch, based on the latest NBM DESI and WPC guidance. Some
higher rainfall amounts (1 to 2 inches) will be possible, especially
across portions of the Rio Grande Plains.

Near normal temperatures are expected for tonight with lows falling
into the 60s area wide. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s, except for the mid 70s along the beaches.
Temperatures will steadily warm through the rest of the week into
the weekend as the onshore flow continues.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches overnight
with a moderate risk on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A coastal
Flood Statement may be needed for Wednesday morning into the
afternoon due to high tide levels combined with the persistent
onshore flow and long period swells.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Patches of light rain are affecting MFE and HRL, and this has been
built into the current suite of TAFs. A TEMPO remains for all
aerodromes today with timing based on the HRRR model. Overall, VFR
will prevail through a majority of the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Moderate east winds and seas between around 4 feet prevail along the
Lower Texas Coast late this evening. Generally favorable conditions
are expected tonight through Thursday. Slightly adverse to adverse
conditions may develop Thursday night into the weekend as the
pressure gradient strengthens. Elevated winds and seas will likely
lead to exercise caution to low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions
as early as Friday on the Gulf waters. There is a low (20 to 30
percent) chance of rain tonight through Wednesday night and a
moderate (40 to 60 percent) rain/thunderstorm chance Thursday
through Saturday. Rain chances decrease by Saturday night with a
return of dry weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  68  82  69 /  40  20  50  50
HARLINGEN               81  64  83  65 /  30  10  50  50
MCALLEN                 81  69  85  69 /  40  10  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         81  68  83  67 /  40  20  70  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  72  77  72 /  30  10  40  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  68  81  68 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$