Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 9:27 AM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
921 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated discussion and key messages

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly sunny and cooler this afternoon. Another cold night
tonight, with additional Frost/Freeze headline potential for
late tonight/early Thu AM.

2) Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next week.
Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average but
still seasonable, followed by a well above normal period Monday-
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 920 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly sunny and cooler this afternoon. Another
cold night tonight, with additional Frost/Freeze headline
potential for late tonight/early Thu AM.

Strong high pressure (~1037mb) is centered across central NY
state, with a W-NW flow aloft in association with a subtle upper
level trough off the mid-Atlantic and NE coast. The sky is
clear, and conditions are quite dry with RH values still at or
below 50% over most of the region. Very dry with full sunshine
expected this afternoon, but high temperatures will be about 10
degrees below average inland, and ~15 degrees below normal
closer to the coast. RH values will once again be quite dry
well inland, while the cool onshore flow will allow for
somewhat higher values closer to the coast. Overall though, fire
WX concerns are not high enough to warrant any IFDs, given that
the places with wind closer to the coast will see higher RH
values while the drier inland zones will generally have winds at
or below 10 mph.

Previously referenced sfc high builds east, becoming centered
along the coast of New England and ridging down the mid-Atlantic
coast into the coastal Carolinas. This setup favors better
radiational cooling and less mixing overnight for inland areas,
as the pressure gradient slackens a bit more. Additionally, the
onshore flow allows for some limited moisture return in lower
levels, resulting in some slightly higher dew pts, especially
along the coast. Farther inland, lower T/Td depressions and
high RH along with the diminishing winds make frost formation
significantly more likely, with forecast lows in the low- mid
30s. Persistence-based forecast meshes well with statistical
guidance, leading to increased confidence that frost/freeze
headlines will be needed for inland areas. Lows are marginal,
so right now it would appear that this would most likely be
handled with Frost Advisories, though some localized Freeze
Warnings in our far western piedmont zones and the MD eastern
shore.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next
week. Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average
but still seasonable, followed by a well above normal period
Monday-Wednesday.

After a cold start, temperatures rebound closer to average
Thursday as the sfc high gradually weakens and shifts farther
off the coast. The next upper level trough moves from the upper
midwest to eastern Canada and New England Fri into Sat, with a
weakening cold front dropping S into the mid-Atlantic. This will
bring more clouds Saturday, but most models keep the area dry
(as does the NBM). Temperature warm into the 70s for most areas
Friday, but then will cool off a bit by Sunday on the ern shore
and near the coast as the low level flow turns back to onshore.
Beyond that, next week will be very warm with highs well into
the 80s, possibly around 90F Tue-Wed. The already dry conditions
are very likely worsen in the medium range, as rain chances are
basically zero through the middle of next week. 00Z/08 model
ensembles show < 50% chc for 0.50" of total rainfall through
the end of next week, as the SE upper ridge continues to keep
any significant rain chances well N and W of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail for the next several days. Mainly
SKC today and this evening, with some stratocumulus potentially
moving into SE VA and NE NC overnight. CIGs would likely be low
end VFR to MVFR is this scenario does occur. Otherwise, gusty NE
winds continue along the coast, especially at ORF/ECG, while
winds inland will be E-NE at 10 kt or less. Diminishing winds
tonight all areas.

Outlook: Somewhat elevated E-NE winds at ORF/ECG Thursday, but
easterly winds will be less than 10 kt elsewhere. Dry with VFR
conditions through Saturday- there is a weakening cold front
Saturday that will bring some clouds, but rain chances look very
limited.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds remain elevated this morning and into the afternoon before
the gradient starts to relax later today and into tonight.

- Elevated seas will maintain SCA on the ocean from tonight through
at least late Thu night/Friday, and possibly into the upcoming
weekend.

Strong high pressure (~1035 mb) is set up across the eastern Great
Lakes, while an area of low pressure is east of the Florida
Peninsula in the north Atlantic. The gradient across our area
remains tightened, and with the high pushing down a good amount of
cold air, winds remain strong across the local waters this morning.
Marine observation sites are measuring 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30
kts across the Bay, with winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to ~30 kts in
the southern coastal waters. Winds are a touch weaker in the
northern coastal waters, but still remain within SCA criteria. Seas
have started to come up, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft (lowest in
northern waters, highest in southern waters). The aforementioned
high will shift offshore today and tonight, but remain stretched
across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, which will maintain a NE wind
across the local waters. The gradient will begin to relax during the
day today, though SCA winds and wind gusts are still expected across
the Lower Bay and southern coastal waters through at least the
afternoon due to a channeling effect. While winds will start to come
down today into tonight, seas will remain elevated due to the long
fetch of NE winds. There is a good chance that seas across the
southern waters over perform, as that is common in this NE wind
regime. The prolonged period of ENE winds will keep seas elevated in
the coastal waters and mouth of the Chesapeake Bay through at least
Friday, so the SCA has been extended through then, and may need to
be extended into the early weekend even as winds turn offshore
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ638.

&&

$$