Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 1:39 PM

AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Key Messages:

* Moderate (40-60%) chances of scattered showers and perhaps a
  thunderstorm or two Thursday and Friday, decreasing to low (20-30%
  for Saturday.

* Rain totals between tomorrow and Saturday should be lower than
  last weekend, with the most likely amounts ranging between 0.5
  to 1.5 inches. 3 inches is possible with locally heavy rainfall.

* Gradual warming is expected into early next week ahead of
  another approaching system. Conditions could become windier
  early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

* Moderate risk of rip currents continues through at least Thursday
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

An unstable pattern consisting of a series of small mid to upper
level disturbances will continue to support showers and possibly
even a few thunderstorms over the next few days. Shower activity is
ongoing, and is expected to continue into tomorrow, Friday, and
Saturday before the atmosphere better stabilizes and conditions dry
out by early next week. The best rain chances of the week will be
tomorrow and Friday, where probabilities remain moderate (around 40-
60%).

Short-range CAM guidance indicates that light shower activity
(similar to what has been occurring this morning) will persist
throughout the CWA through early afternoon tomorrow before heavier
showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms form off the Sierra
Madres in Mexico and move into the Western portion of the CWA
tomorrow evening.  For this reason, rain chances are highest (close
to 60%) in Starr and Zapata Counties tomorrow afternoon, before
increasing to 50-60% overnight for the entire CWA as this lingering
convection moves eastward. The Storm Prediction Center continues to
keep Deep South Texas under a general thunderstorm risk Thursday and
Friday. Though a few thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain
and some gusty winds, nothing severe is expected at this time.  The
rain is also expected to be beneficial.

Friday looks to be a little more active throughout the earlier part
of the day than Thursday, as the last of the stronger disturbance
pulses push through the region.  Heavier showers with a small
thunderstorm or two are possible mid-morning through late afternoon,
before shower activity begins to settle down somewhat by Friday
evening. Rain chances decrease to below 15% in most areas overnight
Friday, with low chances (20-30%) on Saturday.  Any precipitation
that forms on Saturday will primarily be light and showery, with
activity tapering off by evening as more zonal flow resumes and the
atmosphere begins to stabilize a little more.

Rain totals over the next few days are not expected to be as
significant as they were last weekend due to overall lighter shower
activity. According to NBM DESI guidance, the most likely amount
that areas of Deep South Texas might see between now and Saturday is
between 0.5 and 1.5 inches.  However, precipitation totals in areas
that receive heavier rainfall could see up to 3 inches, particularly
in the western counties of the CWA.  Because showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be isolated to scattered, some areas
may not receive any precipitation at all.

Current NBM guidance suggests that conditions should dry out again
Sunday through Tuesday of next week. However, long-range guidance
indicate that a Pacific trough will move across the Central/Southern
Plains between the middle to latter part of next week. Precipitation
chances could trend up again by the middle of next week if this
system brings any frontal boundaries towards our area.

Temperatures should remain close to seasonal the next few days, and
continue to warm through the middle of next week.  Onshore winds
will continue through the rest of this week, before turning more
southeasterly by the weekend.  Wind speeds could also increase going
into next week as a pressure gradient sets up ahead of the next
approaching system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Ongoing showers and light rain continue over the area.  Conditions
are mostly VFR at all airports, but could decrease to MVFR
temporarily due to localized rain activity.  For this reason, a
TEMPO has been added to the TAFs for the next few hours.  Conditions
should stay VFR through the evening, before ceilings lower to MVFR
overnight. Easterly light to moderate winds are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Conditions should stay favorable through the weekend with
light to medium winds and low to moderate seas.  The exception would
be in the vicinity of any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms that
happen to form offshore over the next few days. SCEC conditions are
possible again by the end of the weekend into early next week as a
pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching Pacific trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             68  82  69  82 /  10  40  50  60
HARLINGEN               64  83  65  83 /  10  40  50  60
MCALLEN                 69  85  69  86 /  10  50  60  60
RIO GRANDE CITY         68  83  67  84 /  20  60  60  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      72  77  72  77 /  10  30  60  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     68  81  68  82 /  10  40  60  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$