Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 1:57 PM

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
147 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated Discussion, 18z aviation discussion, and Key Messages.

- Frost and Freeze headlines have been added for much of the
  area for late tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly sunny and cooler this afternoon. Another cold night
tonight, with additional Frost/Freeze headline potential for
late tonight/early Thu AM.

2) Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next
week. Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average
but still seasonable, followed by a well above normal period
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly sunny and cooler this afternoon. Another
cold night tonight, with additional Frost/Freeze headline
potential for late tonight/early Thu AM.

Strong high pressure (~1037mb) is centered along the SE New
England and northern mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Aloft,
W-NW flow persists, in between a broad northern stream trough
traversing the Dakotas and building upper ridging over the Gulf
coast. Mainly sunny, but very dry and chilly, especially along
the coast. Highs along the coast mainly in the upper 40s to low
50s as of this writing, with low to mid 50s farther inland. RH
values remain quite dry well inland, while the cool onshore
flow is allowing for somewhat higher values closer to the
coast.

Previously referenced sfc high builds east tonight, becoming
centered along the coast of New England and ridging down the
mid- Atlantic coast into the coastal Carolinas. This setup
is much more favorable for radiational cooling, given slackening
pressure gradient/less mixing over inland areas. Additionally,
the onshore flow also allows for some limited moisture return
in lower levels, resulting in some slightly higher dew pts,
especially along the coast. Farther inland, the combination of
slightly higher Td (lower T/Td depressions) and high RH, along
with the diminishing winds make frost formation significantly
more likely. Forecast lows remain in the low- mid 30s tonight.
A persistence- based forecast meshes well with statistical
guidance, leading to increased confidence for more widespread
frost formation just inland tonight, with temperatures just
below freezing well inland out toward the US-15 corridor north
of Farmville. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have
issued a relatively broad swath of Frost Advisories just inland
of the SE coastal plain, with a Freeze Warning for our far NW in
Louisa/Fluvanna counties. CAMs continue to show potential for
some building stratocu pushing inland late tonight, with the
best chances across SE coastal terminals. The mid-cloud deck
and onshore flow should help to keep temps near to above
freezing along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Remaining mainly dry through the middle of next
week. Temperatures Friday-Sunday will be mostly above average
but still seasonable, followed by a well above normal period
early next week.

After a cold start, temperatures rebound closer to average
Thursday, as the sfc high gradually weakens and shifts farther
off the northeast coast. The previously referenced northern
plains upper level trough slides across Ontario into New
England late Thu into Sat, and will eventually push a cold front
toward our area late Fri into Sat. Given the dry antecedent
airmass, the cold front likely weakens considerably before
reaching our area, bringing little more than some increased
cloud cover for Saturday.

Better return flow should return high temperature back into the
70s for most areas west of the bay Friday (65 to 70 eastern
shore). However, temperatures do look to cool slightly for
Sunday, especially on the ern shore and near the coast, as the
low level flow backs to the E-NE. Otherwise, the main weather
message for the first half of next week will be increasingly
warm and remaining dry. Highs look to warm well into the 80s
Mon/Tue, possibly to around 90F Tue- Wed. This will exacerbate
the already dry conditions, that are very likely worsen in the
medium range. Rain chances are basically zero through the first
half of next week. 12Z/08 model ensembles continue to show
< 50% chc for 0.50" of total rainfall through the end of next
week, as the SE upper ridge continues to keep any significant
rain chances well W/NW of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 18z TAF
period look to prevail for the upcoming TAF period and through
the late week period. Mainly SKC this afternoon and early evening,
with some stratocumulus potentially moving into SE VA and NE NC
late tonight and overnight. CIGs would likely be low-end VFR,
though some spotty MVFR is possible at ECG and ORF. Otherwise,
gusty NE winds continue along the coast this afternoon around
KORF/KECG, while E-NE remain 10 kt or less. Diminishing winds
tonight all areas, becoming light and variable overnight and
into Thu as high pressure continues to build overhead.

Outlook: Somewhat elevated E-NE winds once again at ORF/ECG by
Thursday afternoon, but easterly winds remain less than 10 kt
elsewhere. Any gusts along the SE coast once again mix out early
in the evening at ORF/ECG, with winds becoming light and
variable again heading into Friday. Dry with VFR conditions
Friday and Saturday. A weakening cold front drops across the
region Saturday afternoon and night that will bring some clouds,
but rain chances look very limited through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds remain elevated this morning and into the afternoon before
the gradient starts to relax later today and into tonight.

- Elevated seas will maintain SCA on the ocean from tonight through
at least late Thu night/Friday, and possibly into the upcoming
weekend.

Strong high pressure (~1035 mb) is set up across the eastern Great
Lakes, while an area of low pressure is east of the Florida
Peninsula in the north Atlantic. The gradient across our area
remains tightened, and with the high pushing down a good amount of
cold air, winds remain strong across the local waters this morning.
Marine observation sites are measuring 20-25 kts with gusts of 25-30
kts across the Bay, with winds of 20-25 kts with gusts to ~30 kts in
the southern coastal waters. Winds are a touch weaker in the
northern coastal waters, but still remain within SCA criteria. Seas
have started to come up, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft (lowest in
northern waters, highest in southern waters). The aforementioned
high will shift offshore today and tonight, but remain stretched
across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, which will maintain a NE wind
across the local waters. The gradient will begin to relax during the
day today, though SCA winds and wind gusts are still expected across
the Lower Bay and southern coastal waters through at least the
afternoon due to a channeling effect. While winds will start to come
down today into tonight, seas will remain elevated due to the long
fetch of NE winds. There is a good chance that seas across the
southern waters over perform, as that is common in this NE wind
regime. The prolonged period of ENE winds will keep seas elevated in
the coastal waters and mouth of the Chesapeake Bay through at least
Friday, so the SCA has been extended through then, and may need to
be extended into the early weekend even as winds turn offshore
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ012-013.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ060>062-
     064>069-075-076-079>083-087>089-092-511>522.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM Thursday to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     VAZ048-509-510.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ638.

&&

$$