Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 2:12 PM

AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
156 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

High Surf Advisory continues from Duck to Cape Lookout for
dangerous surf and potential for localized ocean overwash.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy NE winds over ENC and low pressure passing offshore
will continue to bring rough surf and localized ocean overwash
concerns to portions of the Outer Banks into Thu.

2) Gradual warming trend expected in the wake of yesterday`s
front. Below normal temps will continue through FRI morning.
Near normal temps FRI, but continuing to warm to well above
normal this weekend and into next week.

3) Fire weather conditions will continue to be monitored closely
due to no appreciable rainfall, a dry airmass, and drying of
fuels as temps warm into next week.

Marine...Mix of gales and small craft advisory conditions over
all area waters through tonight. Though winds begin to relax
this evening, sea driven SCAs to follow the gales for coastal
waters, likely lasting into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong NE winds continue across the area with
strong high pressure to the north and low pressure offshore. Winds
have led to large waves which will continue through tonight and
early Thu. While winds will gradually ease overnight, wave
periods will increase, leading to wave runup concerns and the
potential for localized ocean overwash at particularly
vulnerable locations along the OBX, mainly at times of high tide
(around 1 AM tonight). High surf advisory continues from Duck
to Cape Lookout.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool high pressure builds down NECONUS before
sinking S of the FA FRI. This will keep a NEerly flow regime in
place through the remainder of the work-week, continuing to
advect a relatively cool maritime airmass over ENC through then.
MinTs tonight in the upper 30s inland where skies are expected
to remain clear and winds will be lighter, and around mid 40s
Inner Banks where stratus advecting onshore and slightly
stronger winds will dampen cooling. Some potential for frost
development overnight and tomorrow morning inland, especially
should winds decouple, though think winds should stay mixed
enough to limit frost potential. Building low level thicknesses
through the end of the work week allows warming temps despite
the light NEerly flow regime, upper 50s and 60s THU and mid 60s
to mid 70s FRI. Sun afternoon, stout SFC high rotates off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, veering local winds more Eerly SUN and then
becoming Serly early next week allowing further warming; MaxTs
approaching 90 inland at the end of the forecast period (next
WED).

KEY MESSAGE 3...Further offshore solutions of a weaker low
traveling along yesterday`s front and a lower likelihood of
a coastal trough developing has continued to trend the late-
week forecast drier. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the
work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the
precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying
of fuels through the long term., This will lead to the potential
for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR flight cats and gusty NE winds are ongoing across eastern
NC. These gusty winds can produce crosswind concerns and EWN
runway 14R/32L. Once the sun sets, winds will decrease to be
below 15 knots for most away from the coast, still out of the
NE. Tonight, NE flow will bring in some lower level moisture,
and MVFR ceilings currently lingering over OBX will progress
inland. There is uncertainty on how far inland it progresses,
and what the coverage will be. there is a 30-50% chance for EWN
and OAJ to see a period of MVFR ceilings tonight, decreasing to
10-30% for PGV and ISO as confidence decreases the further
inland you go. Put a SCT025 deck in TAFs for tonight with this
update for EWN and OAJ, becoming FEW025 for PGV and ISO. Any
lingering low clouds will scour out in the morning, leading to
another VFR afternoon tomorrow with NE winds at 5-10 knots
(15-30 knots along the coast)

Outlook: Low VFR or MVFR CIGs are possible tonight into
Thursday morning for terminals near the coast. After improvement
during the day Thursday, a risk of sub-VFR conditions may once
again develop Thursday night, this time due to BR/FG. European
ensemble (ENS) has a 10-20% chance of seeing impactful fog
Saturday morning with clear skies and light to calm winds
forecast after dewpoints rise late Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt across the nearshore waters
and 20-30 kt gusting 30-40 kt across the outer waters, with seas
7-12 ft. Strong high pressure to the north will continue to
ridge into the Carolinas keeping a tight gradient across the
area. Mix of small craft and gale force conditions continue
across the waters. Winds will gradually ease tonight and into
Thu, 15-25 kt. This will bring an end to the gales across
the Pamlico Sound and central waters by this evening, though
gales will likely persist across our Sern waters into the first
part of tonight. SCAs across all other waters will also remain
in place as well through this evening and tonight. Seas will
remain elevated at 7-12 ft with periods increasing closer to
9-10 sec. SCA conditions will continue Thu with NE winds 15-25
kt and seas 5-10 ft.

Outlook: 6+ ft seas will remain in place across our coastal
waters through at least Saturday. Winds become generally
10-15kt, still out of the N-NE THU night. 10kt or less, briefly
becoming SEerly across all waters FRI as high pressure sinks
south of regional waters. Another ridge shifts across NECONUS
over the weekend once again leading NEerly winds SAT night and
SUN, continuing to veer to become S and then SWerly early next
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$