Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 2:54 PM

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week
  progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next
  week.

- Strong rip currents possible along Gulf-facing beaches this week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

In the last three-ish weeks of March, we were begging for rain
chances (any %) as the drought monitor kept turning more and more
red. We went from "Houston...we have a problem" to "Houston...we
have a solution...well kind of". These daily chances of rain
won`t be a drought buster by any means, but it certainly beats the
alternative of only seeing rainfall in our imaginations. With
onshore flow established, plentiful low-level moisture is in place
which is why some of you may have seen light rain early this
morning before sunrise. Best chances for an isolated shower this
afternoon will be south of I-10 and west of I-45. The general
pattern will be the same going into next week where we have high
temperatures mainly in the 80s, low temperatures generally in the
60s (approaching the 70s towards the end of the week), and daily
chances for showers/storms. The mechanisms for these showers and
storms changes nearly each day, but the general message remains
all the same!

Thursday`s rain chances are the result of a weak coastal trough.
Moisture availability will be best to the west of I-45 though, so
that`s where the highest rain chances will be. Latest CAMs guidance
suggest isolated showers could begin as early as near sunrise, which
I have no reason not to buy into it based on this morning`s
activity. With daytime heating, a few storms are likely to develop
west of I-45. Friday presents an interesting scenario since there
will be an embedded shortwave trough pushing through. While this
occurs though, ridging aloft will also be building in with 500mb
heights increasing throughout the day. This sets up the ultimate
showdown: subsidence vs embedded shortwave with a tag team partner
of daytime heating. With PW`s approaching the 90th percentile
(~1.52"), we`ll still have at least some rainfall...but I do think
the subsidence could limit the extent and duration of these
showers/storms. For now, I`m keeping rain chances as is on Friday,
but just know that there are some model solutions out there where
most locations don`t see much more than 0.10".

The ridge axis begins to slide to east on Saturday, so rain chances
will be higher to the west that day. The ridge sliding out is the
result of an approaching upper level low from the Pacific
Northwest...this looks to play a role in our forecast early next
week. For now though, I`ll just briefly mention that on Sunday, rain
chances will be higher over the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods
due to the positioning of a passing jet streak and LLJ.

The previously mentioned upper level low will push into the Central
Plains in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. As it does, a dry line
will be set up to our northwest over in western Texas. Surface low
pressure develops late Monday on the leeside of the Rockies which
places us firmly in the warm sector with plentiful moisture and
instability. It`s too early to look too much into the exact details,
but factoring all of that in along with a rather robust mid-level
jet setting up to our northwest...the ingredients are all certainly
there for strong to severe storms. SPC already has portions of the
Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a 15% probability for severe
weather on Tuesday and I wouldn`t be surprised to see that continue
into Wednesday at some point. The potential for strong to severe
storms is certainly greater to our northwest, but the potential will
certainly need to be monitored in our area as well. Be sure to stay
up to date on the forecast for the latest details.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR today with gradually increasing SE winds later today. Low
level moisture increases overnight and we could see some
intermittent MVFR ceilings develop toward morning. Patchy fog
can`t be ruled out west of I-45 late tonight as well...but
guidance suggests low vsbys should be situated west of our TAF
sites.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Light east-southeasterly winds today will transition to
southeasterly tonight and begin to strengthen going into Thursday.
This increased onshore flow will likely lead to a period of caution
flags late Thursday into Friday. Another result of the increased
onshore flow is the increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-
facing beaches towards the end of the work week and going into the
weekend. Expect wave heights to increase as well due to an extended
fetch of easterly to east-southeasterly winds stretching to the
eastern Gulf brings a swell of elevated seas. Seas expected to peak
in the 4-7 ft range in the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds
further increase over the weekend and into early next week. Small
Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. Daily chances for showers and
storms will persist going into next week, but these chances peak
late Thursday into Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes
through the area. Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around
thunderstorms.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  58  83  64  81 /   0  20  10  40
Houston (IAH)  63  82  68  80 /   0  20  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  70  77  71  77 /  10  10  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$