Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 2:57 PM

AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
241 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

    - Dangerous rip currents will remain in place across the
      Atlantic Coast beaches through the end of the week.

    - Hazardous marine conditions will continue across all local
      waters through Thursday. These hazardous marine conditions
      will linger across the Atlantic waters through the end of
      the week.

    - Localized flooding will be possible along the east coast
      through the late evening hours. A Flood Watch remains in
      place for the east coast metro areas through 10 PM Wednesday
      evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

No major changes were made to the current forecast as the
forecast philosophy remains on track. While the region currently
remains in a relative lull, convection will begin to refire later
this afternoon and into this evening as the atmosphere continues
to destabilize once again due to peak diurnal heating. Convection
will also be aided not only by the surface frontal boundary
stalled out just to the south of the region, but another mid level
shortwave impulse will pass over the region tonight as it rounds
the base of the trough. This mid level impulse could provide
additional lift and instability to support the possibility of
some heavy rainfall and stronger convection lasting into the
evening and a portion of the overnight hours as well. Some of the
CAMs and hi-res guidance are picking up on this with the HRRR
remaining one of the more bullish solutions. With convection
remaining slow moving along with the possibility of multiple
storms containing heavy downpours moving over the same area,
localized flooding will remain possible especially later this
afternoon into this evening across the east coast. While
additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be likely
through tonight, localized higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches cannot
be ruled out over portions of the east coast depending on if
storms remain parked over a certain area or if training of showers
and storms occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A deep plume of moisture remains entrenched across the bottom
half of the Peninsula along a decaying stationary boundary. The
recent 0z KMFL upper air sounding shows a pretty saturated
environment from top to bottom, with a precipitable water content
of 1.70 inches, within the 90th percentile for this time of year.
As a result, there is still moderate confidence for heavy rainfall
along the Atlantic coast, where the Weather Prediction Center has
outlined a slight risk of excessive rainfall and a Flood Watch is
in effect through Wednesday night. Once again, the main
contributor for shower activity will be coastal convergence along
the Atlantic. Brisk northeasterly flow over the Gulf Stream will
continue to enable moisture and frictional convergence along the
Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Palm Beach metros, providing enough
forcing and ascent for scattered showers to develop throughout the
morning and afternoon. The HRRR is once again the most bullish
among hi-res guidance, showing more robust storms developing along
coastal Broward and Palm Beach before sunrise. Other guidance is
not as excited on strength but agree on placement along the
Atlantic coast, particularly farther north near Palm Beach.

The recent 0z HREF is also a little bit more bullish on QPF amounts
than the previous run, with 24 hour mean ensemble amounts between 1
and 2 inches. Once again, the worst case scenario 24 hr max amounts
show pockets of 5 inches along coastal Dade, Broward, and Palm
Beach. However, its notable that the HREF signal for Wednesday
(along with other ensembles like the REFS) is less than the signal
for the Tuesday`s rainfall threat, and that didn`t end up playing
out like many of the more bullish solutions had modeled. As a
result, confidence is less for today that we will see urban flooding
impacts.

One reason that the Tuesday rainfall threat may have not played out
as forecast is that the environment was actually much more unstable
and more supportive of faster moving storms. The 18z Tuesday
sounding didn`t show the ideal "long and skinny" CAPE profile
necessary for flooding rainfall. Instead it hinted at a much more
unstable airmass with MUCAPE near 2700 J/kg and steep low level
lapse rates of 7 C/km. There was also brisk westerly flow aloft and
plenty of shear, along with additional forcing from a mid-level
shortwave. As a result, storms moved from west to east a little bit
quicker across the metro during the afternoon and were more of a
severe threat than a heavy rainfall threat (as shown by the strong
gust and wind damage LSRs). This flow aloft may have also played a
role in why the coastal convergent showers didn`t stay pinned along
the shoreline as previously modeled. Now as for today`s rainfall
threat: Looking at RAP model soundings for this afternoon, one
notable thing that stands out compared to Tuesday`s sounding is the
weaker flow in the mid-levels and a long and skinnier CAPE profile.
But, lapse rates don`t look all that favorable to support deep
convection, and while there is less instability than yesterday
(1000 J/kg), there is still plenty for strong downpours to
develop. Probably the most promising feature in the model sounding
that we haven`t really seen the past few days is that 1 km and
6km wind barbs will be almost inverse of each other. This means
that the upwind propagation will be opposite to the surface
moisture convergence, which may result in some storms being
anchored in place along the coast. If this does play out, certain
spots are likely to get on that upper end of 3 to 5 inches.
Overall, the main concern for urban locations will be ponding
water over low lying spaces and poor drainage areas. This may
cause some roadways to become impassable.

Outside of the rain threat, northeast winds will stay pretty breezy
throughout the day on Wednesday, with gusts near 30 mph along
coastal Palm Beach. Marine and beach ares will remain quite
hazardous due to these strong winds. There looks to be a quick lull
in wind speeds on Thursday, particularly for inland and Gulf
areas. But, choppy waters will remain for the Atlantic through
the end of the week due to persistent easterly flow.

For Thursday, guidance continues to hint at coastal convergence
showers and storms developing along the Atlantic coast counties for
the early morning through afternoon. However, PWATs look to be on
the downtrend (decreasing to a still above average 1.5 inches), and
mid-level dry air starts to make its way into the region. There is
still some spread among QPF ensemble clusters, but the majority of
members (70%) show rainfall amounts of about an inch to an inch and
a half for Thursday. The other less likely solution shows 2 to 2.5
inches for upper end amounts. As a result, there is a very low risk
of urban flooding concerns across the metro area on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The wet pattern that we have been enjoying (or detesting... to each
their own..) will begin to break down on Friday. High pressure
ridging begins to strengthen over the north Florida gulf coast
starting on Friday, pushing the longwave troughing pattern east into
the Atlantic. PWATs will slowly but surely continue to decrease
through the weekend and into next week as northerly flow ushers in a
a drier airmass. Some isolated to scattered showers may develop on
Friday while there is still some moisture convergence along the
Atlantic coast. But, precipitation chances greatly decrease
through the weekend as the drier and more stable air mass takes
hold. By Monday, 500 mb heights of 590 dm will sit squarely over
Florida, increasing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s
areawide. The surface high over the Carolinas keeps a stout
pressure gradient along the Atlantic coast, so breezy easterly
winds will remain through the beginning of the week. Winds look
to relax during the middle of the week as the ridge meanders
overhead, but conditions will remain mostly dry and sunny.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop near the terminals through the rest of this afternoon and
into tonight. These storms could directly impact the terminals
bringing periods of MVFR or IFR conditions along with strong gusty
winds. Outside of thunderstorm activity, ENE winds will continue
to range between 15 to 20 kts through tonight with gusts ranging
between 25 to 28 kts during this time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Stronger northeast winds have begun to kick in across the area due
to a stout pressure gradient driven by a 1038 mb sfc high over the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds (both coasts) and seas (east coast)
will remain elevated through the entire week as strong high
pressure remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic.

Small Craft Advisories will continue through Wednesday night
for the Atlantic waters, Gulf waters, and Lake Okeechobee. Winds
will be strongest across the waters east of Palm Beach, where
gusts may be as strong as 35 kts and wave heights as high as 14
feet. Winds will be slightly weaker over the Lake and over the
Gulf but still in the 20 to 25 kt range. There will be a brief
lull in breeziness on Thursday morning, but conditions will pick
up again on Thursday afternoon across both the Gulf and Atlantic.

Brisk northeast flow will remain through the end of the week,
particularly for the Atlantic waters where winds will still be
near 25 kts on Friday. Wave heights will decrease back down into
the 7 to 8 ft range, but due winds, Small Craft Advisories over
the Atlantic have been extended through Friday. Highlights will
likely be needed through the weekend as the easterly flow pattern
remains steady.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The threat of rip currents will remain high across the Atlantic
through the end of the week. In addition to rips, surf heights
will continue to build on Wednesday across the Palm Beaches and
peak along the entire east coast on Wednesday, with peak breakers
between 7-10 ft. A High Surf advisory has been issued for the Palm
Beach area through Friday. Surf heights will decrease towards the
end of the week, but breezy easterly winds will continue to keep
hazardous beach conditions in place across the Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  77  70  79 /  70  70  30  30
West Kendall     67  80  67  81 /  70  60  30  30
Opa-Locka        69  79  69  81 /  70  70  30  30
Homestead        69  80  71  81 /  60  70  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  69  76  69  78 /  80  70  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  69  75  69  78 /  80  70  30  30
Pembroke Pines   70  80  70  81 /  80  70  30  30
West Palm Beach  69  76  69  78 /  80  70  30  20
Boca Raton       69  76  69  78 /  80  70  30  30
Naples           68  83  67  85 /  50  40  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-
     172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$