Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 8:27 PM

AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
750 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy conditions will continue through Thursday.

- Gusty winds and hazardous marine conditions will continue
  through at least Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The stalled out boundary over the state continues to bring us cloudy
and windy conditions with some spotty showers. This trend will
continue for the rest of today. By tomorrow the boundary will start
to dissipate alLowing the sunshine to return. Due to it being a
transition day we will see a mix of conditions. Where the thicker
clouds linger we will see spotty light showers, however areas that
start to see more sunshine could see a more convective pattern
with heavier rain and thunderstorms.

By Friday the boundary will be gone allowing for ridging from the
north to settle into the area. This will allow for the gusty winds
to subside and drier air to start filtering in. Some lingering
moisture in South Florida will still allow for an isolated
thunderstorm or two in the afternoon and evening. The drier air will
make it down to South Florida by Friday night and the state looks to
have PW lower then an inch for the weekend and into early next week.
This will bring us sunny skies and warming temperatures with
highs back in the upper 80`s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A mixture of MVFR to low-end VFR CIGs this evening will gradually
become MVFR area-wide by late evening and overnight with some
spotty SHRA also possible at times. MVFR CIGs will then linger for
much of the day on Thursday but CIGs will slowly rise later in the
day, which should transition to low-end VFR conditions by the
afternoon and evening hours. In addition, breezy NE winds will
remain in place through the period with gusts of 25 kts or more
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Stall boundary over the state still bringing us gusty winds
with a small craft advisory issued for all water ways through early
Friday morning. The front will start to dissipate Thursday night
which will allow for winds to come down slightly. However strong
ridging to our north will keep winds just below advisory criteria
at 15 to 20 knot from Friday through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The stalled boundary that has been giving us cloudy and
breezy conditions will start to dissipate slowly on Thursday. Behind
it we will see drier air filter into the area through the weekend.
RHs will stay just above critical levels but we will be seeing sunny
skies and no rain in the forecast for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  82  65  85 /  30  40   0  10
FMY  67  83  67  85 /  40  40  10  10
GIF  65  79  64  82 /  40  50   0  10
SRQ  67  81  64  84 /  40  40   0  10
BKV  61  80  59  84 /  20  40   0  10
SPG  70  83  69  86 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$