Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 8:27 PM

AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 00Z aviation discussion.
Dangerous surf, longshore, and rip current conditions will
continue for east and southeast facing beaches Thursday.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the
end of the week before subsiding over the weekend.

2) Hazardous surf conditions will continue through tomorrow
before gradually subsiding over this weekend.

3) A gradual warming trend commences after a cool night
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the
end of the week before subsiding over the weekend.

See Marine section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Hazardous surf conditions will continue
through tomorrow before gradually subsiding over this weekend.

Breezy northeast winds of 15-20 kts will continue through Thursday
before subsiding thereafter, resulting in a moderate to strong north
to south longshore current for east- and southeast-facing beaches.
This will combine with surf zone wave heights as high as 3-6 ft at
east-facing beaches to create dangerous surf zone conditions through
Thursday, before wave heights decrease from Friday onward. Long-
period swells out of the east will maintain a moderate to high risk
for rip currents at east- and southeast-facing beaches through
Friday before subsiding somewhat over the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A gradual warming trend commences after
a cool night tonight.

Cool and dry surface high pressure over New England will gradually
shift away to the northeast through the end of this week. A piece of
this high will break off and settle over the southeast US for this
weekend before moving offshore early next week. With very dry air in
place and northeast winds supplying chilly air from the high
pressure area tonight, expect lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with
steady winds continuing. Temperatures will then see a gradual
increase through the rest of the work week through the 70s for highs
and through the 40s for lows. Over the weekend, expect highs in the
80s and lows in the 50s. A further increase in temperatures is then
anticipated as the high pressure area moves offshore and south winds
bring even warmer and more humid air northward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. NE winds tonight will remain ~10 kts near the coast and ~5
kts inland. Gusts will become less prevalent late tonight before
building back in during the morning ~20 kts again. There`s a bit
of uncertainty with the timing but a sea breeze paired with
some mid- level clouds (~5 kft) may develop ~18-19Z Thursday.

Extended Forecast... VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...The gradient remains pretty strong between high
pressure well north of the area and a baroclinic zone far off the
coast. Gale-force gusts appear to be marginal and could see the
headline being lowered to SCA before its expiration time. The NE
wind chop is existing along with a NE swell of 8 seconds.

Thursday night through Sunday night...
High pressure northeast of the waters will lose its influence
by late Friday with the ensuing weak pressure pattern resulting
in light and variable winds over the weekend. Easterly 10-11 sec
swells will remain a primary component of the wave spectrum
through the period with little to no wind chop expected from
Friday onward.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for SCZ056.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$