Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 8:27 PM

AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
821 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Strong northeast to east winds are expected through Thursday.
  The strongest winds will be today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph
  common. Over the Gulf waters, a Gale Warning is in effect.

- Dry conditions will continue through the next 7 to 10 days. Fire
  concerns will remain elevated and drought improvements are not
  forecast. Use extreme caution with any activities involving fire
  and please follow local officials advice on any burn bans.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Strong surface high pressure will remain entrenched across the
southeast US and northern Gulf Coast. This surface high will
encourage elevated/strong easterly flow across the forecast area
(with the strongest winds across our Gulf waters). Mostly dry
conditions will prevail again late this afternoon and evening but
a few weak showers could develop with heating of the day. These
showers will also be aided by a weak shortwave trough slowly
translates east into the evening.

Thursday will bring similar conditions to this afternoon but
overall, winds will be slightly lower, and warmer temperatures are
expected with drier air aloft filtering in. The one point of
uncertainty tomorrow is with this drier air. Some of the more
overzealous guidance does show the potential for us to be much
drier (relative humidity wise) than current forecast, especially
across western Florida Big Bend and Panhandle where we have around
a 10 to 20% chance that humidities drop to around 25%. Did blend
some of this drier guidance into our forecast to reflect this
potential. Given the recent dry conditions, this could bring
locally elevated fire danger tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Upper level flow will be either northwesterly or fairly stagnant
as an upper level ridge rebuilds across the northern Gulf. Model
guidance is excellent agreement on this pattern and it`s a high
confidence forecast in near-zero rainfall amounts into at least
the middle of next week.

Temperatures will generally be above average through the period
with highs in the mid 80s with upper 80s to near 90s possible by
the middle of next week. These conditions, when combined with
exceptional drought, will likely lead to continued long term fire
weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Some spotty light showers will affect TLH, ECP, and possibly VLD over
the next few hours, but VFR conditions are still expected to prevail
through the period. Winds come down a little bit overnight at DHN, ABY,
and VLD, but nudge higher again after sunrise to around 12 kts with
gusts to 20 kts as cloud cover lifts during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Northeast to east winds will peak this afternoon and evening near
gale force for most Gulf waters. Winds will start to trend
downward on Thursday, but it will take until Friday morning for
winds to decrease below small craft strength, especially in
offshore waters. Easterly breezes will prevail this weekend, a
direction that will favor fresh wind surges each night to at least
cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High dispersions along with warm and dry afternoons are expected
through the next few days. While critical relative humidities are
generally not expected, there remains about a 10 to 20% of
relative humidities dropping to around 25 to 30% in some areas.
For Thursday, this probability is greatest generally west of the
Flint/Apalachicola River. On Friday there is a 10-20% of relative
humidities dropping to around 25% across the entire region.
Elevated winds around 10 to 15 mph are expected on Thursday but
then should drop to around 5 to 10 mph for Friday and the
upcoming weekend. These conditions will keep elevated fire danger
in place through the weekend. No wetting rains are expected for
at least the next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7
days. Therefore, no flooding is expected. Drought conditions will
worsen.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   55  78  56  82 /  20  10   0   0
Panama City   58  79  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
Dothan        53  76  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        51  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  77  54  81 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    58  78  56  83 /  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  60  75  61  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     FLZ108-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-
     755-765-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 5 PM EDT /4 PM
     CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-752-755-765-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ751.

&&

$$