Update AFD Area Forecast Discussion — Wed Apr 8, 2026 8:27 PM

AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds
Across the Coastal Waters Through Tonight, Then Small Craft. Life
Threatening Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent,
Strong Rip Currents and Rough Surf (up to 12 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor
Beach Erosion Possible. Gusty Winds Along the NE FL Coast/St Johns
River

- Red Flag Warning for Inland Southeast GA 2-8 PM Today

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong onshore winds; Coastal Wind Advisory

- Life-threatening Surf Zone Conditions

Region remains between strong high pressure to the north northeast,
and an inverted trough to the south through Tonight. The resulting
gradient between these two features will keep winds elevated. While
gusts will relax after sunset due to lack of mixing, winds will
remain fairly gusty near the immediate coast. With the northeast
flow, the best chance for showers will be over NE FL Tonight, with a
focus at the coast.

Lows will range from the lower 50s over interior SE GA, to the
middle 60s along the NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:


- Breezy Onshore Conditions Gradually Easing Each Day
- High Risk for Rip Currents & Elevated Surf Persist at Beaches

Strong high pressure to the northeast near Nova Scotia will extend a
surface ridge axis SW into the Mid Atlantic coast and VA/NC Piedmont
with coastal troughing off the FL coast through Thursday night.
Breezy onshore NE winds will resume, but less than today at 15-20
mph gusting to 30-35 at the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 30 over
inland NE FL with gusts decreasing to 25 mph over inland SE GA.
Scattered coastal showers will move onshore across NE FL coast and
St Johns river basin into north central FL with widely isolated
showers along and west of highway 301. Isolated T`storms will
develop in the afternoon as over the southern St Johns river basin
with some diurnal heating from less cloud cover allows for enough
surface instability under 500 J/kg to fuel a few storms, but
mostly south of JAX where higher moisture levels reside to support
updraft development without drying out.

Highs Thursday will be below normal in the upper 60s over coastal SE
GA and the low 70s along the NE FL coast warming to near normal in
the mid to upper 70s west of I-95 in NE FL and west of US-301 in SE
GA. Lows Thursday night will be near normal in the lower 50s over
interior SE GA where drier air resides and moderate to the low 60s
along the immediate coast and upper 50s over interior NE FL.

Drier air arrives Friday as surface/low level ridging shifts south
across the southern appalachians into the Carolinas. Surface high
pressure moving closer to the area will relax the pressure gradient
and this will lead to a dry and less breezy day with onshore NE
winds 10-15 gusting to 25 mph along the coast and gusting to 20 mph
inland with a only a few quick showers mainly offshore or very quick
widely isolated shower moving onto the immediate coast at times, but
measurable rain is not expected.

Highs Friday will moderate to near normal along the coast in the mid
70s with highs bumping above normal into the lower 80s. Lows Friday
night will be near normal ranging from the low 50s interior SE GA
to the low 60s again at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming Temperatures & Fair/Dry Conditions Throughout the Long
Term Period

Weakening high Pressure over the southeast on Saturday will give way
to stronger high pressure to the north moving quickly east into the
Atlantic waters by Sunday night and then extending a ridge axis near
the region through midweek next week. Subsidence from high pressure
will keep dry conditions dry during the period. East to NE winds
will become easterly Sunday, then SE Monday into Tuesday, and
southerly Wednesday as the high pressure ridge axis moves south into
the area. Daily afternoon seabreeze circulations and the onshore
flow will favor a dominant Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland
each day under mostly sunny skies.

Highs near normal along the coast and above normal inland Saturday
will become above normal Sunday into next week with inland highs
approaching near record levels in the low 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Showers and stratus will lead to periods of restrictions this
evening, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for most
TAF sites this 00z TAF period. The restrictions may linger
throughout the night into Thursday morning at KSGJ. Winds will
remain gusty this evening. Away from the coast, the winds will relax
some during the overnight. While winds are not expected to be as
strong Thursday, it will still be a gusty day.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure will be centered the north northeast through
Thursday, with an inverted trough to the south. The high will weaken
as it settles over the southeastern US on Friday. The high will move
off to the northeast over the weekend, and more toward the east
northeast next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

A reinforced surge of onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents through Thursday. As the strongest winds during this event
arrive today breakers will rise to 10-13 feet. The surf zone will be
a very dangerous and become life-threatening to any swimmer
regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach
erosion will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
- Southeast Georgia

- NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- NEAR CRITICAL LOW MINRH VALUES RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK


Elevated winds today will continue this afternoon as strong high
pressure builds into the region from the north with 15-25 mph
gusting to 35-45 mph along the coast and St Johns river basin
decreasing to 15-20 mph gusting to 30-35 mph over inland SE GA and
far inland NE FL. The drier airmass will lower MinRH values to
around 25-30 percent over locations from Alma, GA north and west
and along with dry fuels and breezy conditions will continue a threat
for dangerous wildfire conditions through sunset. Elevated transport
winds will bring high dispersions across Southeast GA and onto the
I-10 corridor of Northeast FL. Scattered showers moving onto the
Southeast GA coast will weaken inland with scattered coastal showers
continuing to move onshore across NE FL through this evening. Widely
isolated T`storms possible over Northeast FL coast/St Johns river
basin this afternoon.

Increasing sunshine and decreased NE winds will create patchy high
daytime dispersions Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles
closer to the area and weakens. MinRH values are likely to remain
below 35 percent across interior GA during this time frame.

Winds further decrease this weekend and become easterly with dry
conditions this weekend into next week with MIN RH values nearing
critical levels 25-30 percent.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
over night next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  75  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  68  61  73 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  60  74  59  78 /  40  30  10  10
SGJ  64  75  62  76 /  50  40  10  10
GNV  60  78  56  81 /  30  30   0   0
OCF  61  78  59  82 /  20  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ024-038-124-
     125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470-
     472-474.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$