Info RER Record Breaking Event Report — Thu Oct 25, 2007 1:28 AM

RERCHS/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH AND THEN RETROGRADING
WESTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND COLD FRONT SLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO DECREASE
FROM SH TO NE. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY SLIDING BACK WWD
WITH THE UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT WANT TO REMOVE POPS
COMPLETELY. WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN WITH THE EVE UPDATE WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS /50S/ OVER NERN ZONES AND LOWEST POPS /30S/ OVER OUR
SW ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD AND/OR THICK ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING RAPIDLY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BUT THINK MID/UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES IN SC DOWN
TOWARD LONG COUNTY IN GA AND POINTS W...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID
60S FARTHER E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE EVEN FURTHER. REMOVED
MENTION OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF SAVANNAH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ONLY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH IN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES.
DESPITE THE LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED LACKING ANY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT
WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT
WITH A RESURGENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTH. HAVE THUS INDICATED INCREASING POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK COOL ADVECTION. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE TROUBLESOME CUT OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST
REGION WILL HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT BACK N AND NW ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE...FINALLY GETTING FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS FOR ATLC
RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE SE...WITH THE CWFA NEAR THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER
OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND COULD
WELL LINGER NEARBY OVER THE ATLC INTO NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHOWING
SIGNS OF EITHER BECOMING DIFFUSE OR SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH OFF THE
COAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT WE WILL CARRY OUR BEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ERN SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH LESS
RISK OF PRECIP THEREAFTER...PROVIDED THE FRONT IS FAR ENOUGH
REMOVED FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY WE COULD START TO SEE
SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK IF PINCHED GRADIENT
FORMS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE NW.

TEMPS WILL HAVE RETURNED TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR CIGS ENCOMPASS THE CHARLESTON AREA THIS MORNING...DRAPED IN
THE WAKE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
OS INCHING IN FROM THE W BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE STABLE STRATUS DECK AT KCHS THROUGH SUNRISE. WE ALSO INDICATED
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AT KCHS WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

BECOMING VFR AT KCHS THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

AT KSAV...IF IT CLEARS LATE TONIGHT...POSSIBLE STRATUS FORMATION BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON INCLUDING MORE THAN SCT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. MVFR
VSBY MAY ALSO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AT KSAV.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS/VSBY/PCPN
FRI. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLY RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS BY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM OUR EXTREME NRN SC WATERS TO JUST E OF
OUR 20-60NM GA WATERS WILL SLOWLY PUSH E OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH
CALMER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE W/NW
ACROSS ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...TOPPING OUT AROUND 4 FT OVER
AMZ374...ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL SEEING AROUND A 2 FT SE SWELL WAVE
COMPONENT. DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA
WATERS ALSO LOWERED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
OUR NRN SC WATERS AS THE LAST PILOT BOAT REPORT AND BUOY OBS
SUPPORT 3-5 FT SEAS...WHICH IS JUST UNDER CRITERIA.

ONCE THE FROPA OCCURS...WE CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE
FOR BOTH SC AND GA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SWELL WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT FROM THE EAST WITH PERIODS REACHING 8 SECONDS...AND
WE WILL TEMPORARILY SEE WAVES AROUND 6 FEET IN OUR OUTER SC WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND WAVE COMPONENTS WILL BE RATHER LOW
WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. NO HEADLINE CRITERIA IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WIND AND SEA FCST WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR NEARBY DURING THE ENTIRE TIME.
WILL PLAN ON LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FCST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SINCE ANY SLIGHT FLUCTUATION IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WIND FCST. BY EARLY NEXT THERE
ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL IMPACT THE
AREA...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA/S SEEM LIKELY IF
THIS PATTERN WERE TO HOLD TRUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THURSDAY MORNING WILL APPROACH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...HOWEVER OFFSHORE WINDS AND DECREASED
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL PREVENT TIDES FROM REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COASTAL HAZARDS WILL STILL BE OF CONCERN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE TIDES LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST PREDICTED LEVELS
OF THE YEAR...WITH THE YEARS CLOSEST PERIGEE IN SYNC WITH THE FULL
MOON. THIS IS CALLED THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDES. THUS WE COULD
EASILY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE CONTINUED HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A POSSIBLE STRONGER PRES GRADIENT. THUS
MINOR OR POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.

ALSO KEEPING A WATCH ON BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENT
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF A PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$