Info TWS Tropical Weather Summary — Thu May 29, 2008 8:23 PM

DSAAT.

ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN SEEMS TO FALL INTO SEEMS TO FALL INTO THE
"NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO" IN
ACTUALITY...THIS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING
GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM ALMA...CENTERED INLAND OVER EXTREME
WESTERN NICARAGUA ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANAGUA. THIS PLACES
THE STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THEREFORE FOUND UNDER "TWOEP"
...FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE.

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ZNS EXCEPT FOR EXTENSION OF ALL MASS
FIELDS TO DAY SEVEN. PHILO...NWS LEAD MET
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BASIC LOGIC FOR THE NEW FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH. H5 RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS IN THE SHORT
TERM. SOME FLATTENING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
HOWEVER...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO ELONGATE ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS.
AS A RESULT OF THIS STABLE PATTERN...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY PERSISTENT. IN OTHER WORDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...DAILY
SUNSHINE... AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE NORM. THE BIGGEST
VARIABILITY MAY BE THE SEA BREEZE...WHICH HAS BECOME A MORE
REGULAR...YET NOT QUITE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...DAILY EVENT.

LOOKING FARTHER OUT IN TIME...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE EAST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE SLIPS SLOWLY WEST
TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO...OPENING UP MUCH OF THE GULF TO TROPICAL
ACTIVITY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
ACTIVITY OUT OF THE WEST GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER. SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MENTION OF POTENTIAL
MOISTURE FROM ALMA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE H5 RIDGE THAT SHIFTED TO OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN H5 S/W TROUGH WILL DIG
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PICK UP A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NEW...DEEPER H5 S/W TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PRESENT MODEL CYCLE
NEXT WEEKEND.

CHANGES TO THE GRID PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED.
PERSISTENCE AND A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008...FOG NOW
LIFTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ADDED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS
BELOW. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TODAY FOR DEVELOPING CU.
WILL ALSO MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT. DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT
THU MAY 29 2008...PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE
BASED INVERSION UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
FOG THIS MORNING. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BRO SHOWS AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALL THE WAY UP...SUGGESTING THAT A SUMMERTIME
TROPICAL REGIME IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED. PWAT IS RATHER LOW AT 1.14
INCHES... SO WILL LEAVE SUNNY WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME BUILDUP OFFSHORE MAY HINT AT MORE
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MONITOR BEFORE
THE MORNING UPDATE. UPDATE FOR MARINE AND AVIATION TO FOLLOW.
&&

.MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 12 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. A
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OCCURRING AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
CLOUDINESS MAY INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA REDUCING CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW            073 091 076 091 077 092 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
BROWNSVILLE        072 093 075 093 076 093 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
FALFURRIAS         069 095 071 096 073 095 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
HARLINGEN          071 094 073 095 075 096 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
HEBBRONVILLE       070 099 072 096 074 096 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
MCALLEN            073 097 075 097 077 098 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
PORT ISABEL        075 090 077 090 078 090 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
RIO GRANDE CITY    073 102 075 100 076 100 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 076 088 078 088 079 089 / 000 000 000 000 000 000
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$