Critical HLS Hurricane/Tropical Local Statment — Wed Aug 4, 2004 5:28 AM

HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-041330-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST WED AUG 4 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

...WATCHES...
AS OF 500 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS 
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.

...AREA AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS AND 
VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS PUERTO RICO SHOULD 
MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TONIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN 
MIAMI. FUTURE FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY AS 
THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES. 

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM AST...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
NUMBER TWO WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... 
LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST...JUST EAST OF ST LUCIA OR ABOUT 370 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR 
ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN.       
         
THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 25 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN 
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 
35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM TODAY.  

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...POSSIBLY REACHING 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS AND GUSTS. BASED ON THE LATEST 
FORECAST TRACK...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD 
REMAIN SOUTH OF ST CROIX AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALSO 
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD 
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT 
TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY 
AFFECTING ONLY THE PUERTO RICO'S SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND THE 
MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH 
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND 
THAT WIND TIMING AND STRENGTH COULD CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.    

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SURF AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 
THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHERE SEAS MAY LIKELY REACH 8 TO 10 FEET AS THE 
TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SMALL CRAFT IN THE 
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR BEFORE NOON 
ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING....WHILE 
SMALL CRAFT IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM 
TIDES OF ONE FOOT OR LESS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 
COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. 

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER 
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AS THE 
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSES SOUTH OF ST CROIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL 
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. 
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA 
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. 
RAPID RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL 
DURING THURSDAY.  

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 AM THIS 
MORNING BY YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN 
JUAN...PUERTO RICO.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO CAN BE 
FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN 
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
  

RM










 







 

 

WTNT31 KNHC 040837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

...ALEX CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.1 WEST OR ABOUT  280 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
 
ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  90 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF  973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREA
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...37.1 N... 71.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH