Critical HLS Hurricane/Tropical Local Statment — Wed Aug 4, 2004 10:48 PM

HLSSJU
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-041800-

BULLETIN-IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1130 AM AST WED AUG 4 2004

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN....

...WATCHES...
AS OF 1100 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN 
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WAS DISCONTINUED. 

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALTHOUGH NO SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS 
SHOULD BE READY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND 
POTENTIAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. 

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM AST...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
NUMBER TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.7 
WEST...OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ST CROIX OR ABOUT 345 
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH 
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN.       
         
THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 25 MPH...WITH A GRADUAL TURN 
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 
35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM IF IT CAN MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  

...RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN 
FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWEST 
AND REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE 
LIKELY TO BEGIN AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSES WELL SOUTH OF 
ST CROIX TONIGHT AND AS THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 
AND PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO'S SOUTH COAST TONIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR WEST PUERTO RICO. 
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. 
RAPID RIVER RISES COULD OCCUR WITH SOME RIVERS EXCEEDING BANKFULL 
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AREA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN SQUALLS AND GUSTS. BASED ON THE 
LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ST CROIX AND ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 
AND ALSO WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
GUSTS COULD AFFECT THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH PART 
OF THE MONA PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.    

...MARINE IMPACTS...
SURF AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 
THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SEAS 
MAY LIKELY REACH 6 TO 8 FEET AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES WELL 
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WATERS.  

THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY 
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN...PUERTO 
RICO.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO CAN BE 
FOUND IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE ADVISORIES.

...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN 
ISLANDS WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

        HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
  

RM














 



This data is from the IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 042037
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
ALEX NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A WIDE SYMMETRIC RING OF
CONVECTION AND WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 5.0 DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 27C.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THEREAFTER...IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS...BUT IT MAY REMAIN
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 075/16...A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
GRADUAL ACCELERATION WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE
EAST.  MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE
LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED A DAY OR TWO LATER.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 37.9N  67.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 39.0N  63.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  56.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 44.6N  47.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 45.4N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM