Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Tue Apr 19, 2011 9:21 PM

LSRAKQ)... AS WELL
AS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SC
COAST...WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY.
ALOFT...FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL. MODELS PROG A WEAK SHORTWAVE MVG
THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC REGION LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO DROP A BIT TO THE
SOUTH. STILL...SHOULD NOT AFFECT AKQ CWA OTHER THAN WITH THE
PRESENCE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL SKIES LOOK TO AVG OUT PTLY
SUNNY THIS MRNG...BECMG MSUNNY THIS AFTN OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA.
HIGHS GNLY IN THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80...LOCALLY COOLER TWDS THE
COAST AND THE ERN SHORE (OCEAN CITY/WALLOPS IN THE 60S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ALNG
OR JUST S OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT AND TUE. GFS/NAM SHOW
SOME LGT QPF AMTS INTO NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA ON TUE AFTN AND TUE
NGT. A LOOK AT BUFR SNDGS SHOWS VERY LMTD/SHALLOW MSTR SO WILL
CARRY A 20% AT MOST...AND CONFINE THIS TO FAR NRN ZONES TUE
AFTN/EVENG. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS TUE RANGING
FROM THE LWR 80S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF VA/NE NC...UPR 70S
FAR NORTH AND AGAIN LOCALLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST OF THE ERN
SHORE. SKIES AVG OUT PTLY SUNNY.

WED...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE GRT LAKES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...KEEPING THE BULK OF UPR SUPPORT WELL
OFF TO OUR N. MAIN TRIGGER FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF...PRIMARILY WED EVENG/ERLY THU AM. MODELS DO SHOW SOME INCSRG
SHALLOW LOW LVL MSTR ERLY WED AM SO HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD CVR TO
PTLY-MCDY AROUND SUNRISE WED. OTHERWISE..STRONG LOW LVL SW FLOW
LOOKS TO BRING A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY TO ALL AREAS WED...HIGHS
INTO MID-UPR 80S MOST AREAS W OF THE BAY...LWR 80S INTERIOR ERN
SHORE AND 70S IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WED AFTN...SFC BASED CAPES PROGGED AT 2000 J/KG BUT
THIS IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE DUE TO SFC DEW PTS IN THE 60S
(MIXING WILL LIKELY DROP THEM INTO THE MID- UPR 50S IN THE AFTN).
EXPECT SKIES TO AVG OUT PTLY- TO MSTLY SUNNY WED FROM LATE MRNG
THRU MID AFTN...W/ INCSRG CLOUDS LATE...AND A CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
BY LATE AFTN IN THE WEST...AND BY ERLY EVENG FARTHER E (STRG SSW
FLOW LOOKS TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT).
CAPPED POPS AT 30-40% AS UPR SUPPORT WEAKENS DUE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE GRT LAKES. ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS GNLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX...SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND IS UNIDIRECTIONAL
(SW). SPC HAS ONLY "SEE TEXT" AT THIS PT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FCST REGION BY THU...STALLS
OVER THE SE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH THE COLD FRO PA...AS BELIEVE THE WEAKENING INSTBY
ALONG WITH THE THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE SFC FRONT
BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME...WILL LIMIT THE LLVL THETA-E
POOLING/MSTR CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL AND THUS THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THU COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...60S NEAR THE
COASTS TO LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND.

FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT BY FRI-SAT...GIVEN THE
DIVERGING GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. BOTH M0DELS INDICATE A CAD/RIDGE
WEDGE SETTING UP ON FRI ACROSS THE FCST AREA (N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT)...HOWEVER THESE MODELS SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF
THE DEGREE OF OVERRUNNING MOISTENING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS SHARPER
WITH THE LLVL A-CYCLONIC FLOW AND (THUS) DRIER AIR HOLDING ON
ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION. GIVEN THE DEPICTED PATTERN...WITH THE
DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
(AS HAS HPC PER THEIR GUIDANCE)...THEREBY MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FRI INTO SAT. SUN EVEN MORE NEBULOUS IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...
HOWEVER AGAIN OPTED FOR POPS AOA CLIMO (AT LEAST 30%) GIVEN
(AGAIN) THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED LLVL FRONTAL BNDRY.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COASTS AND INTO THE
MID-UPR 70S FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND MAINLY A SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. VFR CONDS WILL
CONTINUE TUE-WED WITH BREEZY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. CHANCE FOR
LWR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHWRS/TSTMS LATE WED/ERLY THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NRN CSTL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING SWELLS OF 5-6 FT. FLAGS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO COME DOWN AT 6AM AT SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MARINE OBS AND WILL EXTEND LONGER IF
NECESSARY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TO
15-20 KTS FOR A TIME. THIS MAY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD BACK OVER 5 FT
FOR THE NRN CSTL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL LATE DAYSHIFT MAKE THE CALL ON
WHETHER OR NOT AN SCA WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD AND
HOIST AN SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STARTING AT 4PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY TUES MORNING. MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS (WINDS 15-20 KTS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MINOR TO LOW END MODERATE FLOODING
ALONG THE JAMES RIVER...RICHMOND LOCKS (RICV2) AND RICHMOND
WESTHAM (RMDV2). AT CARTERSVILLE...MAY NOT QUITE REACH FLOOD
STAGE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL AWAIT THE
CREST LATER TODAY BEFORE DROPPING THE WRNG. PALMYRA (PYAV2) HAS
CRESTED AND NOW DROPPED WELL BLO FLOOD STAGE SO WILL CANCEL THE
WRNG SHORTLY. SEE WBCFLSAKQ AND WBCFLWAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB