Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Tue Apr 19, 2011 9:21 PM

LSRAKQ)... AS WELL AS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

LTL CHANGE TO PREV FORECAST NEEDED. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARDS A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WITH
LGT SW FLOW WOULD NORMALLY PORTEND TO SOME PATCHY LOW CLDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE
WL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLR/PARTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
HIGHER CLDS IN ASSN WITH WEAK S/W TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS OH LVY
THIS EVENING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL MEANDER ALNG OR JUST
S OF THE MASON DIXON LINE MON THRU TUE (POSSIBLY INTO WED
MORNG)...THEN LIFT WELL N OF THE REGION BY WED AFTN AS A COLD FRNT
WILL APPROACH FM THE W LATE WED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE
MORE CLOUDINESS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA THRU TUE NGT.
OTHRWISE...HI PRES SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST WILL PROVIDE
A PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY SKY FOR MON THRU WED...WITH INCRSNGLY WRMER
TEMPS. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80...IN THE MID
70S TO LWR 80S TUE...AND IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOMEWHAT OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FCST REGION BY THU...STALLS
OVER THE SE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI...THEN LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM
FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW POPS WED NIGHT
INTO THU WITH THE COLD FROPA...AS BELIEVE THE WEAKENING INSTBY
ALONG WITH THE THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE SFC FRONT
BECOMING MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME...WILL LIMIT THE LLVL THETA-E
POOLING/MSTR CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL AND THUS THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THU COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...60S NEAR THE
COASTS TO LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND.

FCST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT BY FRI-SAT...GIVEN THE
DIVERGING GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. BOTH M0DELS INDICATE A CAD/RIDGE
WEDGE SETTING UP ON FRI ACROSS THE FCST AREA (N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT)...HOWEVER THESE MODELS SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF
THE DEGREE OF OVERRUNNING MOISTENING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE WETTER MODEL...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS SHARPER
WITH THE LLVL A-CYCLONIC FLOW AND (THUS) DRIER AIR HOLDING ON
ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION. GIVEN THE DEPICTED PATTERN...WITH THE
DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
(AS HAS HPC PER THEIR GUIDANCE)...THEREBY MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FRI INTO SAT. SUN EVEN MORE NEBULOUS IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...
HOWEVER AGAIN OPTED FOR POPS AOA CLIMO (AT LEAST 30%) GIVEN
(AGAIN) THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED LLVL FRONTAL BNDRY.

HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COASTS AND INTO THE
MID-UPR 70S FARTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS AND MAINLY A SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MON. MON
NGT/ERLY TUE AM COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY
FOG AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS AGAIN PREVAIL TUE-WED. CHANCE FOR LWR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SHWRS/TSTMS WED NGT/ERLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CSTL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AT 5-7 FT. SEAS
ARE RATHER CHOPPY AS WELL...CONSIDERING THE SWELL DIRECTION
OPPOSITE FROM THE WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) FLOW. FLAGS WILL COME DOWN
THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN CSTL WATERS...THEN BY LATE TONIGHT N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND.

BY LATE MON-TUE W/ LONG FETCH SLY FLOW INCRSG TO 15-20 KT COULD
SEE 5 FT SEAS FOR NRN CSTL WATERS (DID UNDERCUT MOS WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY
DUE TO COLD WATERS AND LMTD MIXING). WATER IS ACTUALLY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN THE BAY AND W/ CHANNELING MAY SEE 15-20 KT INTO
THE BAY BY LATER MON AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AT
MOST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
JAMES RIVER...AT CARTERSVILLE (CARV2)...RICHMOND LOCKS (RICV2) AND
RICHMOND WESTHAM (RMDV2). PALMYRA (PYAV2) HAS CRESTED THIS
EVENING...AND WL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT. SEE WBCFLSAKQ
AND WBCFLWAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG