Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Tue Apr 19, 2011 10:12 PM

LSRAKQ)... AS WELL AS AVAILABLE ON THE TOP
OUR WEBSITE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) UNDER "NEWS OF THE DAY"
FOR MORE INFORMATION. STORM SURVEYS MAY NOT BE FINALIZED UNTIL
LATER ON THIS WEEK...BUT TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...WE HAD A REPORT OF MAIL/LETTERS FROM
COLERAIN, NC (FAR NE BERTIE COUNTY) FOUND IN THE FRONT YARD OF A
PROPERTY IN SEAVIEW, VA (NORTHAMPTON COUNTY) OVER THE VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE.

NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST KEEPS FA IN DRY. WRM AIRMASS TNT AS MID/HIGH
LVL MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE FA. SHRT RGNE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD DVLPMNT (BTWN 1-2K FT) LATE TONITE.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG OUT OF FCST DUE TO A SUSAINED WND ARND 10
MPH. XPCT VRBLY CLDY / MILD. LOWS U50S-L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SYSTM MOVMNTS THRU THU. S/W MOVS
FM THE NRN PLAINS WED...ACRS THE GRT LAKES & INTO ERN CANADA WED/WED
NGT. MID/UPR LVL PTRN FLATTENS OUT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE
UPR SPRT FOR PRECIP REMAINS OFF TO OUR N. HOWEVER...A WEAKER/SHEARED
OUT VORT MAX NOTED OUT AHEAD OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN TROUGH.
THIS PUSHES E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 18Z. THIS FEATURE XPCTD TO SET
OFF SOME WIDELY SCTD STORMS WED AFTN OVER OUR AREA. LOW LVL SW FLOW
(DIRECTIONS 220-250) WOULD SUPPORT DEW PTS MIXING OUT INTO THE M-U
50S DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. XPCT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
BE LMTD DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LVLS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS
AT 20%-30% MOST AREAS WED AFTN...AND 30% MOST AREAS WED EVENG/NGT.

LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS TRIMMED BACK THE SLGHT RISK AREA A BIT
TO NOW COVER MOST OF THE FA N OF VA BORDER. FEEL THAT ANY STORMS WILL
BE WIDELY SCTD/POPS TOO LMTD FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISO SVR E OF THE
MTNS IN AKQ CWA. SNDGS CONT TO SHOW AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AND WILL
CONT TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG/GUSTY WINDS W/ CHC TSTMS IN HWO. SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL/SW SO MAIN THREAT IS STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. BEST LCTN
FOR ANY SVR WUD BE ACROSS NRN CNTYS OF FA.

TMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST ANY MORNING LOW CLDS ERODE / BURN OFF.
STILL XPCT A GUD DEAL OF SUN B4 CLDS INCRS DRNG LATE AFTRN HRS. H85
TMPS ARND 17C RESULTS IN READINGS IN THE L-M80S WITH SOME U80S PSBL
SRN CNTYS WHERE MORE HEATING WILL OCCUR. 70S AT THE BEACHES. SW WNDS
BECOME RTHR GUSTY (UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES).

FRNT MOVES ACROSS RGN WED NITE. WILL END POPS NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA
AFTR MODNITE. XCPTN BEING XTREME SNS CNTYS WHERE LINGERING MSTR KEEPS
CHC POPS GOING THRU THE NITE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

BNDRY MOVG S INTO CAROLINAS THU WITH HIGH BLDG IN FROM THE N. MAY
HAVE A LINGERING SHWR ACROSS SRN MOST CNTYS ERLY...OTW SOME CLRG
ACROSS NRN CNTYS DRNG AFTRN. COOLER WITH HIGHS M60S ERN SHORE TO
L70S SRN MOST CNTYS.

HIGH PRS TO THE N BEGINS TO WEDGE INTO RGN THU NITE. MSTR QUICKLY
RETURNS AS E-NE FLOW. MODELS NOW A BIT SLOWER TO BRING ACTUAL PCPN
INTO WRN CNTYS...BUT ELECTED TO KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE WRN
PIEDMONT CNTYS LATE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTS TO SATURATE LAYER. ERN
SHORE AREAS STAYS CLR THE LONGEST. THIS SETS UP A COOL NIGHT WITH
TMPS RANGING FROM ARND 40 IVOF SBY TO NR 50 SERN CNTYS.

FRI APPEARS TO BE A COOL WITH CHC POPS AS MSTR FROM AN APPRCHG WRM
FRNT OVERRUNS THE COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BEST WAA AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORCING MOVE ACROSS WV AND PA...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS...HIGHER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE THAN STRENGTHENS AND
ANCHORS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
INLAND...LOW 70S EASTERN SHORE AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER. MAXIMA
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST OF THE BAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT COULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE ONLY POPS WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS IN. UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED WITH A BREEZY/GUSTY SW WIND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 12Z WED. CHANCE FOR LWR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SHWRS/TSTMS LATE WED/ERLY THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW END SCA
CONDITIONS (WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20KT) SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAY
TONIGHT...DESPITE BEING SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A PERIODIC 20KT WIND IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUND...SO AN SCA FLAG WAS RAISED. SEAS OF 4-5FT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
LULL IN THE WIND IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. GFS AND NAM ARE EACH SUGGESTING A BRIEF
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE BAY AND SOUND SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 4-5FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATER SO THE SCA WAS CONTINUED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WESTHAM GAGE AT 12 FT ATTM AND SHUD CONT TO FALL. XPCT FLOOD WRNG
TO BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NXT FEW HRS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED WED THERE IS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES ON WED (APR 20TH). FOR REFERENCE...THE
RECORD HIGHS ARE LISTED BELOW FOLLOWED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE 1ST
DATE WITH 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES:


RECORD HIGHS FOR WED 4/20:
RIC...95 IN 1985
ORF...91 IN 1941
SBY...92 IN 1985
ECG...93 IN 1985

90-DEGREE CLIMATOLOGY:

            AVG 1ST DATE      EARLIEST             LATEST
RICHMOND......MAY 11TH......MAR 17TH (1945)....JULY 2ND (1972)
NORFOLK.......MAY 19TH......MAR 23RD (1907)....JULY 2ND (1972)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR