Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:38 AM

LSRAKQ)... AS WELL AS AVAILABLE ON THE TOP
OUR WEBSITE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) UNDER "NEWS OF THE DAY"
FOR MORE INFORMATION. STORM SURVEYS MAY NOT BE FINALIZED UNTIL
LATER ON THIS WEEK...BUT TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
NORTHERN IN/OH. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT
OF TSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND IT ALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. DUE TO STRONG
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS HAVE REMAINED QUITE WARM
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOST READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WILL LIFT NE...REACHING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL HEAD NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
QUITE GOOD IN SHOWING MINIMAL POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SO
HAVE ONLY SLGHT CHC. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT IDEA OF DRY LOW
LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL FURTHER INHIBIT PRECIP CHANCES. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK STILL HAS OUR CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD STORM CHANCES. INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER
STORM. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO +17 OR +18 C TODAY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE MID/UPR 80S...EXCEPT LOW 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WILL END POPS IN
THE NW IN THE EVENING...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR NE NC COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
KEEPS SLGHT CHC POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S.

THE BOUNDARY MOVE S INTO CAROLINAS THURS WITH HIGH BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH. MAY HAVE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON...
OTHERWISE SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO WEDGE INTO THE REGION THURS
NIGHT. MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS AS E-NE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODELS
STILL SLOW TO BRING PRECIP INTO WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLGHT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES LATE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS. EASTERN SHORE AREAS WILL STAY CLEAR THE
LONGEST. THIS SETS UP A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM ARND 40
IVOF SBY TO LOW 50S SE COUNTIES.

FRI APPEARS TO BE A COOL DAY WITH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS AS MOISTURE FROM AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVERRUNS THE COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS 55-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE BEST WAA AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORCING MOVE ACROSS WV AND PA...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS...HIGHER NORTH THAN SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE THAN STRENGTHENS AND
ANCHORS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
INLAND...LOW 70S EASTERN SHORE AFTER MORNING CLOUD COVER. MAXIMA
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WEST OF THE BAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT COULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S VERSUS MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE ONLY POPS WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS IN. UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVRNGT THRU WED WITH A BREEZY/GUSTY SW
WIND DURING THE AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISLTD
MVFR CIGS ARND 12Z WED. WILL HAVE JUST SCT CU FOR WED AFTN INTO
ERLY WED EVENG IN CASE ANY ISLTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP.
OTHRWISE...COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENG INTO ERLY THU
MORNG. NEXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO PCPN WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE MARINE AREA INTO AT LEAST ERLY THIS
EVENG...AS HI PRES SLIDES FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A COLD FRNT
APPROACHES FM THE W. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES THRU THIS
AFTN/EVENG FOR THE CURRITUCK SND AND CHES BAY...AND THRU LATE TNGT
FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS. COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENG
INTO ERLY THU MORNG WITH ISLTD OR WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HI
PRES BLDS IN FM THE NNE THU...AND THEN DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
CST FRI...ALLOWING FOR ONSHR FLO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. HI PRES RE-BLDS OFF THE SE CST LATE IN
THE WKND AND ERLY NEXT WK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THERE IS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES. FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS
ARE LISTED BELOW FOLLOWED BY CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE 1ST DATE WITH 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURES:


RECORD HIGHS FOR WED 4/20:
RIC...95 IN 1985
ORF...91 IN 1941
SBY...92 IN 1985
ECG...93 IN 1985

90-DEGREE CLIMATOLOGY:

            AVG 1ST DATE      EARLIEST             LATEST
RICHMOND......MAY 11TH......MAR 17TH (1945)....JULY 2ND (1972)
NORFOLK.......MAY 19TH......MAR 23RD (1907)....JULY 2ND (1972)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM