Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:24 PM

LSRPHI
CONTS TO UPDATE AS POST EVENT REPORTS ARE RECEIVED.

STILL UNSTABLE AND SO CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR GUSTY TSTM
IN NEPA/NJ/DE THIS AFTN (SHORT LINE TAILING S INTO NNJ ATTM) BUT
THE LARGER ORGANIZED EVENT OF THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED
TO OUR SE.

GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP MID AND LATE AFTN AS DRIER AIR AND COOL
POOL ALOFT ARRIVE FM THE NW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

BECOMING MO CLR TONIGHT THEN DIURNAL CU-COLD POOL ALOFT ASSTD-
TUE AFTN MIGHT. THOSE CU MIGHT YIELD A SPRINKLE.

GUSTY NW WINDS TUE TO NEAR 25 KTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH.

A WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
HUMIDITY. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA
MAY BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE +20C SO WE MAY BEE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS CONDITIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DROP INTO OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY. THE
TIMING AND IMPACT OF THE FRONT REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL SIMPLY INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT TO BKN AOA 5000 FT. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER MAINLY N AND E OF KPHL. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 KTS DEVELOP
MID-LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN OCNL BKN NEAR 5000-6000 FT IN
THE AFTN. NW G NEAR 25 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...MAINLY KABE/KTTN AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN
LATE NIGHT HAZE, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE, FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ADJUSTMENTS AT 330PM BASED ON 19Z DATA.

GUSTY SSW WINDS NEAR 25 KTS WITH SEAS 4-5 FT ARE SHIFTING NW NOW.

SHOULD HAVE PERSISTENT NW G15 OCNL 25 KTS LATER TONIGHT OR MORE
LIKELY TUE.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT IN THE OUTER ERN EDGE OF THE CW.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOL AIR.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
THE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. WHILE THE RISK AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES
WILL REMAIN LOW, IT MAY INCREASE AND NEAR MODERATE LATER IN THE
DAY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE RISK ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO