Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Mon Jun 25, 2012 3:15 PM

LSRPHI
CONTS TO UPDATE AS POST EVENT REPORTS ARE RECEIVED.

STILL UNSTABLE AND SO CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR GUSTY TSTM
IN NEPA/NJ/DE THIS AFTN (SHORT LINE TAILING S INTO NNJ ATTM) BUT
THE LARGER ORGANIZED EVENT OF THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED
TO OUR SE.

GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP MID AND LATE AFTN AS DRIER AIR AND COOL
POOL ALOFT ARRIVE FM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

BECOMING MO CLR TONIGHT THEN DIURNAL CU-COLD POOL ALOFT ASSTD-
TUE AFTN MIGHT. THOSE CU MIGHT YIELD A SPRINKLE.

GUSTY NW WINDS TUE TO NEAR 25 KTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE CUT OFF AND BEGUN A SLOW AND UNSTEADY
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE MAIN WEATHER
EVENT OVER THE LONG TERM MAY END UP BEING A RETURN OF HEAT AFTER
IT STARTS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVE FROM LAST WEEK, BUT H925 TEMPERATURES
FROM THE LATEST RUN OF THE RELATIVELY COOLER GFS SUPPORT 90 DEGREE
OR GREATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY FROM TRENTON
SOUTH FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND ONE COULD MAKE A CASE FOR
THURSDAY ON THE FRONT END AND MONDAY ON THE BACK END. THE ECMWF
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. THIS OFTEN IS THE CASE, AND THE ECMWF ISN`T
ALWAYS (ALTHOUGH IT IS OFTEN) TOO WARM. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO SUNDAY, AND
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH EVENTUALLY WILL
COME OUT FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY,
BUT FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE
HWO. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME THAN
THERE WAS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE LAST HEAT WAVE BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKER HEIGHTS AND THE FAIRLY FAST MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A VORTEX PUSHING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA, AND THE WARM FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY MAY STALL NEARBY. HOWEVER, FOR THE TIME
BEING WE AREN`T DISPUTING HPC SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT TO BKN AOA 5000 FT. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDER MAINLY N AND E OF KPHL. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 KTS DEVELOP
MID-LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...VFR CLEAR TO START THEN OCNL BKN NEAR 5000-6000 FT IN
THE AFTN. NW G NEAR 25 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...MAINLY KABE/KTTN AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LATE
NIGHT HAZE, FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
HAZE, FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ADJUSTMENTS AT 330PM BASED ON 19Z DATA.

GUSTY SSW WINDS NEAR 25 KTS WITH SEAS 4-5 FT ARE SHIFTING NW NOW.

SHOULD HAVE PERSISTENT NW G15 OCNL 25 KTS LATER TONIGHT OR MORE
LIKELY TUE.

SEAS NEAR 4 FT IN THE OUTER ERN EDGE OF THE CW.

OUTLOOK...
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST BEFORE PICKING UP A BIT AGAIN BY
FRIDAY, BUT IN GENERAL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO/DELISI