Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:13 AM

LSRAKQ) AND ALSO
WITHIN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSAKQ).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FA IN BTWN SYSTMS FRI AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. TEMP FORECAST PROBLEMATIC GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER.
WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE UNDER A PT SUNNY SKY. DRY WITH HIGHS L-M40S
EXCEPT NR 50 SERN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ON GROUND.

FIRST (AND STRONGEST) S/W PROGGED TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC
REGION FRI NIGHT THEN OFF THE COAST SAT. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS DIFFER
A BIT...BUT WILL CARRY A 40 POP FOR RAIN DURING THE EVENING...MIXING
WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SERN
COASTAL AREAS WHERE IT STAYS RAIN. QPF THUS ANY SNOW ACCUMS XPCTD
TO BE LIGHT. LOWS M20S NW TO M-U30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
S/W`S CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPEARS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTM BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
A WEAKER S/W MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION (WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
WITH THAT SYSTM) BUT EXPECT A COLD AND DRY WEEKEND ACROSS THE FA.
HIGHS M30S TO M40S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRY AND A BIT
WARMER MON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW. HIGHS 40-45.
SOME LIGHT PCPN AHEAD OF APPRCHG WARM FRONT LATE MON NIGHT. TEMP
PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH. LOWS
IN THE 30S. MILDER TUE WITH CHC SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HIGHS
55-60. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS IN FOR
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. DRY AND MILD WED. HIGHS 50-60.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY JUST RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING. STILL SEEING IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGHOUT AND VSBYS
VARYING FROM 1 TO 5 SM. IN GENERAL...EVEN AS PRECIP BECOMES LIGHTER
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN LOW CIGS...IFR LIKELY MOST OF THE
DAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS TO 30 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW THIS
AFTN/EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION AFTER 20Z...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODERATE PRECIP FOR A FEW HRS. PTYPE COULD SWITCH TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC/KSBY FROM 21Z INTO THE EVENING HRS.
IMPROVING CONDS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS FOR THE RIVERS...GALES FOR THE OCN/BAY/SOUND. DVLPMNT OF SFC
LO PRES CONTS ON THE CSTL PLAIN IN ERN NC. THE LO WILL BE TRACKING
W OF HSE...TO NR ECG...THEN JUST E OF THE DELMARVA THROUGH TDA.
SPEEDS ARE GRADUALLY INCRSG NOW FM S TO N THROUGH THE CSTL WTRS AS
THE LO APPROACHES FM THE SSW. MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO DIRECTION AND
SPEEDS BASED ON TRENDS AND NEW GUID WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE LO WILL
BE TRACKING CLOSER TO/OVR A PORTION OF THE ATLC WTRS TDA. WILL
LIKELY KEEP MNLY N WNDS ON THE BAY/RIVERS...BUT BECOME SSW OVR AT
LEAST THE SRN PORTION OF THE OCN WTRS THIS MRNG...CONTG INTO THIS
AFTN BEFORE SWINGING TO THE NW IN IN THE WAKE OF THE STM. AFT
INITIAL INCRS IN SPEEDS TO HI END SCA...LO END GALE GUSTS OVR MUCH
OF THE WTRS INTO/THROUGH THE MRNG HRS...XPCG A LULL IN SPEEDS AS
THE SFC LO TRACKS INVOF FA WTRS...ESP LATE MRNG INTO MID AFTN. A
SURGE/INCRS IN SPEEDS XPCD IN THE WAKE OF THE STM AS IT DEPARTS
THIS EVE INTO TNGT...W/ HI END SCAS AND PTNTL LO END GALES.

SCAS WILL LIKELY REPLACE GALES AFT FIRST PART OF TNGT (ALBEIT FOR
A FEW HRS - FOR WINDS...THOUGH W/ SEAS ON OCN SLO TO SUBSIDE BLO 5
FT...SCAS ON THE OCN LIKELY TO LINGER (WELL) INTO FRI). WNDS BECOME
SWLY FRI AHD OF NEXT APPROACHING SFC LO PRES FM THE W. THAT SYS
CROSSES THE WTRS FRI NGT...THEN IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER ROUND OF
INCRSD NW WNDS XPCD (AND HI PROB FOR SCAS).

SEAS ON THE OCN WILL REACH 10-13 FT THIS MRNG...THEN BE VERY SLO
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TNGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADSY FOR OCEAN SIDE MINOR FLOODING FOR
WORCESTER MD DOWN TO ACCOMACK VA. TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER
TO RISE THAN GUIDANCE PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS VERIFYING ABOUT 5-10 KT
LESS THAN EXPECTED. STILL THINK THE DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS ON THE ERN SHORE AS WINDS ARE NOW GUSTING TO AROUND
30 KT. FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED THE ADSY TO THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE
SINCE IT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT MAY NEED ANOTHER ONE FOR THE EVENING
CYCLE. AREAS OF THE LOWER BAY ARE SEEING DEPARTURES TO AROUND 1.5 FT
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...BUT WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THERE AS SFC
LOW IS CLOSE BY. THUS...WATER LEVELS LOOK TO FALL ABOUT 0.5 FT SHORT
OF FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-060>071-079>083-087-088.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ072>078.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD