Info PNS Public Information Statement — Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:51 PM

PNSAKQ
FOR DETAILS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TUE...AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE TUE NIGHT/WED...AND
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN/BUILD TO ~1050 MB (ABOUT 3 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL) OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WED NIGHT/THU. LIGHT WINDS
AND TURNING A LITTLE WARMER TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS 50-55F UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL COLD/DRY TUE NIGHT BUT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE U20S W OF I-95 TUE NIGHT...LWR 30S TO
ARND 40F FARTHER EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY WED...THEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WED NIGHT INTO THU TO CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY OVERALL
(THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN DRY/PRECIP-FREE). HIGHS WED RANGE FROM THE
LOWER-MID 50S N TO UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F SE. NOT AS COLD WED
NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BY THU MORNING PER
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD THANKSGIVING DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT`S NOT UNTIL THIS COMING WEEKEND THAT
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A RUN AT THE LOCAL AREA. MODEL
PREFERENCE IS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINA THRU SUNDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO DRY WX THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN INDICATE SLIGHT CHC POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE FROPA.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE QUITE CONSIDERABLY. LATEST 12Z ECMWF WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE
OF PCPN TOWARD THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUN
NIGHT/MON AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS STAY MILD THRU
SAT...IN THE 60S. COOLING OFF INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO VIRGINIA. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUING TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY WHICH AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS HAVE ENDED SCA FOR THE CHES
BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW 5FT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING NORTH AND OVERNIGHT
SOUTH. SCA`S CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THEN.

MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EARLY TUE MORNING THRU
WED. HOWEVER...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG/N OF THE REGION AND
SFC TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST...NE OR E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL
RESULT FOR WED AFTN INTO FRI. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS BACK ABOVE 5 FT
LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB