Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:27 PM

LSRAKQ). Storm survey team is headed out and will likely
not get to every location today. PNS`s on the storms will be
issued when completed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Starting out mainly SKC tonight. A weak/quick moving trough
sfc-aloft approaches/crosses the local area late tonight-Sat
morning bringing increasing cloudiness and lo prob for -RA.
Given quick movement and limited moisture (crossing the
mtns)...holding PoPs to aob 20-30% mainly nrn half of the FA.
Clearing out midday/afternoon Sat as a strong push of hi pres
builds into the local area from the W. Highs Sat from the l60s N
to the u60s SE.

Cool/dry wx Sat night under SKC...w/ lows in the 40s except 50s
along the coast. Strong WSW flow aloft Sun will lead to increased
cloudiness. Consensus of the models suggests that any -RA
dissipates exiting the mtns. Will have partly sunny...becoming
mostly cloudy W...partly sunny E on Sun. Keeping PoPs aob 14%
attm. Highs Sun in the l-m60s N and W to the l70s in NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12 PM EDT Thursday...

Cool and quiet conditions are expected to start the medium/long
range forecast as high pressure at the surface will move east of the
area on seasonally strong zonal winds aloft. As the surface high moves
away, winds will become increasingly southerly Sunday night
into Monday morning which will allow moisture to return to the
region with dewpoints increasing through the day Monday into the
mid 60s. An approaching trough of low pressure and an
associated cold front will serve to increase the chance for
showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder for Monday afternoon
into the evening hours. Some timing differences remain among the
models as to the timing of the actual cold frontal passage with
the GFS and GEM bringing the front through shortly after sunset
on Monday while the ECMWF is a bit slower - closer to sunrise
Tuesday morning. Went with a blend but leaned toward the faster
timing of the GFS/GEM for frontal passage. The chance for
thunder will come to an end after the front clears any one spot,
but it appears that post-frontal showers will continue across
the area for Tuesday into early Wednesday before high pressure
builds into the region once again to close out the week.

High temperatures on Monday will feel quite warm after a cool
weekend with low 70s in the northwest ranging into the lower 80s
across the southeast. Overnight lows Monday into Tuesday will depend
on the eventual placement of the cold front but will generally range
from the low 50s NW to low 60s SE. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be
held in check with clouds and showers around, lower 60s across the
north and some low 70s to the south. Thereafter, highs in the 60s to
low 70s with lows dropping back into the 40s inland to upper 50s
near the water.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions continue this aftrn as high pressure builds into the
region. The next system moves quickly east across the nrn Mid Atlntc
states Sat morning. Models show just enuf moisture for a few light
shwrs across the lwr md ern shore btwn 09Z-15Z so went with a VCSH
there. Otw, just SCT-BKN mid level cloud deck expected Sat.

OUTLOOK...
The next cold front will approach from the NW early next week...
possibly resulting in lower CIGS and -RA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 AM EDT Friday...

Winds continue to diminish over the waters this morning, and
have stepped Storm Warnings back to Small Craft Advisories
(Rivers) and Gale Warnings for all waters.

Previous discussion...
Michael is now off just to the ENE of the lower Bay. Rapid
pressure rises and strong gradient which has resulted in strong
gusts to storm force (and even a few Hurricane Force gusts over
elevated terminals) is relaxing slightly this morning. The
strongest wind gusts (to 50 to 60 kt) over the Bay and coastal
waters will be roughly between now and about 10Z, with
conditions gradually improving thereafter. Breezy NW winds will
linger through the day Friday as high pressure builds over the
Ohio Valley. Winds diminish below SCA tonight over the Bay and
rivers tonight, but could approach SCA thresholds again for a
short time Saturday morning with a secondary CAA surge. Winds
then drop off quickly with cool high pressure building over the
region Sat night through early Monday.

Another cold front drops across the region Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Going forecast timing has not been modified
significantly.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous river warnings on the Nottoway, Meherrin and
Appomattox basins. Flood warnings will persist through the
weekend and into early next week in the Meherrin Basin. See
FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for details.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Tidal anomalies now declining, but water levels remain elevated
for the current high tide cycle across the bay and ocean.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record rainfall for Oct 11th at SBY - 6.56".

Also, there were tipping (pcpn) bucket errors at RIC after
02Z/12 so adjusted initial pcpn total from climate report for
Oct 11th to MM. Will need to look at other sites near that
location later today to possibly get a total for the day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ084-086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR