Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Mon Apr 8, 2019 9:30 PM

LSRAKQ

High res data shows a second but weaker batch of energy pushing
across the local area through the night. Best chc for any thunder
will be across the se where a lingering trof/bndry sets up.

Sct showers will continue for much of the night before ending
across the NW half of the CWA after midnite but thru the night
across SE zones. Lows upr 50s-lwr 60s

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...

Showers taper off across most of the area Tuesday morning (but
isolated-scattered showers may remain across the S/SE invof
lingering axis of llvl convergence). This happens as the best
deep layer moisture shifts to the SE of the region with the
aforementioned srn stream low shearing out as it approaches the
Carolinas. A nrn stream low will move E of the Great Lakes by
late Tue evening/Tue night, which will drag a cold front through
the area. Could see some isolated- scattered aftn/evening
showers/tstms (mainly E of I-95) with the FROPA. PoPs are mainly
between 20-40% from 12z Tue-00z Wed. Still warm on Tue with
highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Cooler/drier on Wednesday/Thursday as sfc high pressure builds
into SE Canada/New England. The low level flow will veer around
to the N-NW on Wed behind the front before veering to the E on
Thu (as high pressure moves offshore of the New England coast).
This happens as strong low pressure tracks from the Rockies to
Central Plains. Aloft, upper ridging starts to build over the
eastern CONUS in response to a deep trough dropping across the
intermountain west. Highs Wed in the upper 50s-mid 60s at the
coast to near 70 F inland. Highs Thursday rebound (slightly)
into the mid 60s-low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Moisture begins to increase ahead of an apprchg cold front late
Thurs nite. Will carry slght chc PoPs across the west late. Lows upr
40s-mid 50s. Cold front to slowly cross the mts Fri. GFS/Canadian
are more bullish with the pcpn along the bndry with the ECMWF
showing the best lift and moisture north of the area. Will show
shwr chcs increasing thru the day. Thunder chc in the aftrn. Highs
70-75 except in the 60s near the water. Models bring the cold front
across the local area Fri eve. Will carry chc PoPs Fri night with
any thunder limited to the evening. Lows mid 50s- lwr 60s.

Weak high pres builds in for Sat. Kept slght chc PoPs in across the
se as moisture progged to increase there in the aftrn. Highs in the
70s except 65-70 near the water.

Early next week looks increasingly wet as yet another deepening low
ejects ene out of the deep south late Sat tracking ne along the mts
Sun then off the New England coast by Mon. The trailing cold front
along with a secondary triple point low progged to cross the area
late Sun / Sun night. Will carry slght chc PoPs Sat nite west and
se. Lows mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Chc PoPs Sun with slght chc
thunder confined to sern zones closer to where triple point low is
progged to track. Highs arnd 60 north to arnd 70 south. Likely PoPs
Sun nite as both the triple point low along with copious amounts of
GOM and Atlantic moisture gets entrained into the systm. Thunder
confined to srn zones in the eve. Lows mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. The
systm pulls offshore Mon but enuf lingering moisture noted to keep
low chc PoPs thru the day. Highs in the 60s to near 70 south.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 920 PM EDT Monday...

Tstrms will move offshore so will have thunder ending shortly
along coastal TAF sites. Scndry batch of energy progged across
the area tonight will keep the shwr chcs going. CIGS progged
to lwr into the IFR category tonight due to the shwrs and ampe
low level moisture. CIGS slowly improve to VFR Tue as the low
level moisture scours out. WSW winds aob 10 kts.

Outlook...
VFR conditions behind a cold front on Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

No headlines in the short term tonight thru Wed. Late this aftn,
high pressure was centered off the SE coast. Also, a cold front
was well NW of the area and an area of low pressure was over
western MS. The wind was mainly SW 10-15 kt over most of the
waters, with seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft in the Bay.

Outside stronger gusts from any tstms this evening/early
tonight, expected SW winds to remain generally 10-15 kt over the
waters. A trough of low pressure associated with the
showers/tstms will move acrs the area this evening into early
Tue morning, then the actual cold front will drop acrs the
region Tue night into early Wed morning. A shallow northerly
CAA surge is expected with this front, which could produce a
brief period of marginal SCA conditions in the Bay. High
pressure builds N of the region Wed into Thu morning, then
slides off the NE coast Thu aftn. A cold front will approach
from the W Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM