Info LSR Local Storm Damage Report — Tue Apr 9, 2019 2:30 AM

LSRAKQ

High res data shows a second but weaker batch of energy pushing
across the local area through the night. Best chc for any thunder
will be across the se where a lingering trof/bndry sets up.

Sct showers will continue for much of the night before ending
across the NW half of the CWA after midnite but thru the night
across SE zones. Lows upr 50s-lwr 60s

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...

Showers taper off across most of the area Tuesday morning (but
isolated-scattered showers may remain across the S/SE invof
lingering axis of llvl convergence). This happens as the best
deep layer moisture shifts to the SE of the region with the
aforementioned srn stream low shearing out as it approaches the
Carolinas. A nrn stream low will move E of the Great Lakes by
late Tue evening/Tue night, which will drag a cold front through
the area. Could see some isolated- scattered aftn/evening
showers/tstms (mainly E of I-95) with the FROPA. PoPs are mainly
between 20-40% from 12z Tue-00z Wed. Still warm on Tue with
highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Cooler/drier on Wednesday/Thursday as sfc high pressure builds
into SE Canada/New England. The low level flow will veer around
to the N-NW on Wed behind the front before veering to the E on
Thu (as high pressure moves offshore of the New England coast).
This happens as strong low pressure tracks from the Rockies to
Central Plains. Aloft, upper ridging starts to build over the
eastern CONUS in response to a deep trough dropping across the
intermountain west. Highs Wed in the upper 50s-mid 60s at the
coast to near 70 F inland. Highs Thursday rebound (slightly)
into the mid 60s-low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Moisture begins to increase ahead of an approaching cold front
late Thurs night. Will carry slight chc PoPs across the west
late. Lows upr 40s-mid 50s. Cold front to slowly cross the mts
Fri. GFS/Canadian are more bullish with the pcpn along the bndry
with the ECMWF showing the best lift and moisture north of the
area. Will show shower chcs increasing thru the day. Thunder
chc in the aftn. Highs 70-75 except in the 60s near the water.
Models bring the cold front across the local area Fri eve. Will
carry chc PoPs Fri night with any thunder limited to the
evening. Lows mid 50s- lwr 60s.

Weak high pres builds in for Sat. Kept slight chc PoPs in
across the se as moisture progged to increase there in the
aftn. Highs in the 70s except 65-70 near the water.

Early next week looks increasingly wet as yet another deepening low
ejects ene out of the deep south late Sat tracking ne along the mts
Sun then off the New England coast by Mon. The trailing cold front
along with a secondary triple point low progged to cross the area
late Sun / Sun night. Will carry slight chc PoPs Sat night west
and se. Lows mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Chc PoPs Sun with slight
chc thunder confined to sern zones closer to where triple point
low is progged to track. Highs arnd 60 north to arnd 70 south.
Likely PoPs Sun night as both the triple point low along with
copious amounts of GOM and Atlantic moisture gets entrained into
the systm. Thunder confined to srn zones in the eve. Lows mid
40s nw to mid 50s se. The systm pulls offshore Mon but enuf
lingering moisture noted to keep low chc PoPs thru the day.
Highs in the 60s to near 70 south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Second batch of rainfall overspreading most of the region early
this morning, with IFR/MVFR CIGS already affecting KRIC/KSBY and
forecast to affect SE VA/NE NC by 09/10Z. Do not anticipate any
tstms, just rain through the next few hrs. CIGS slowly improve
to VFR later today as the low level moisture scours out.
Westerly winds will avg 5-10 kt (this may be light enough to
allow KORF to switch to the N for awhile this aftn). There is a
low chance for some additional showers with the passage of the
cold front later this evening/tonight but did not go with any
prevailing showers at this time.


Outlook...
VFR conditions/dry for Wed/Thu with northerly winds Wed,
becoming E/SE on Thu. Increasing moisture and southerly flow on
Fri with scattered showers developing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

No headlines in the short term tonight thru Wed. Late this aftn,
high pressure was centered off the SE coast. Also, a cold front
was well NW of the area and an area of low pressure was over
western MS. The wind was mainly SW 10-15 kt over most of the
waters, with seas 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft in the Bay.

Outside stronger gusts from any tstms this evening/early
tonight, expected SW winds to remain generally 10-15 kt over the
waters. A trough of low pressure associated with the
showers/tstms will move acrs the area this evening into early
Tue morning, then the actual cold front will drop acrs the
region Tue night into early Wed morning. A shallow northerly
CAA surge is expected with this front, which could produce a
brief period of marginal SCA conditions in the Bay. High
pressure builds N of the region Wed into Thu morning, then
slides off the NE coast Thu aftn. A cold front will approach
from the W Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM