Critical HLS Hurricane/Tropical Local Statment — Thu Jul 20, 2006 8:31 PM

HLSOKX
ANZ330-350-353-CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-210600-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
826 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE 
MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN 
LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR....

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD STILL BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
TONIGHT TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. 

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN... 
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN. 
THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT 
COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO 
MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF PORT 
JEFFERSON NEW YORK TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT. THIS INCLUDES SUFFOLK 
COUNTY NEW YORK AND MUCH OF COASTAL CONNECTICUT. A TROPICAL STORM 
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 
WATCH AREA. 

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
 
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS 
TRACK...BERYL WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND 
SOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE 
BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT 
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. SINCE THE STORM COULD 
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA OPERATORS 
IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ALREADY BE PREPARED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 

SOUTHERLY SWELLS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 10 TO 12 FEET SOUTH OF LONG 
ISLAND AND MAY BUILD AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO TONIGHT BEFORE 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGES OF 1 TO 2 FT ARE LIKELY ON TOP OF EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL 
TIDES. THIS PLUS WAVE ACTION WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT 
SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. A SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT COULD ALSO CAUSE 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS LONG 
ISLAND SOUND AND IN THE BACK BAYS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG 
ISLAND. 

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO MONTAUK POINT...AROUND 11 PM 
TONIGHT...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS 
FORECAST...RAIN BANDS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER COULD STILL PRODUCE 
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVER THE WATCH AREA.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 
AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST 
CONNECTICUT. THIS WOULD CAUSE ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING 
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. 

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SWELLS FROM BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS 
ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES INTO FRIDAY. 

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
ROUGH SEAS FROM BERYL ARE ALREADY PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTH 
FACING OCEAN BEACHES WITH BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. MINOR TO LOCALLY 
MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING OCEAN 
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. 

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR 
SELECTED LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

MONTAUK POINT...38 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR 
GREATER.

...NEW INFORMATION...
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE WATERS 
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BUOY 44025 SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND HAS BEEN 
REPORTING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 33 KNOTS SINCE MID AFTERNOON.  
SEAS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FT SOUTH OF LONG 
ISLAND. BEACH PATROLS REPORTED EARLIER OF BREAKERS OF 6 TO 10 FEET 
AT SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. 

SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. EASTERN LONG ISLAND WILL SEE THE 
BULK OF THIS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE STORM. SOME OF THE STRONGER 
RAIN BANDS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY AROUND 1130 EDT.