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Tropical Depression 5 forms in Bay of Campeche, forecast to move into Mexico Between Tuxpan and La Pesca as a Tropical Storm.
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ike in the Gulf, Middle/Upper Texas Coast in the Path
      #84585 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:58 AM

September 10th 11 AM Update
Ike is slowly strengthening, and generally moving west northwest.

The track has not changed much from last night. Ike is now a large storm, hurricane force winds extend 80 miles out from the center.



September 9th 6 PM Update
Hurricane Ike has finally exited Cuba and is in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The cone has certainly shown its use today, as models this morning were trending south, now they are trending a bit north, and along with them the long term Forecast. This puts the greater risk to the central and northern Texas coasts this evening.

Intensity wise it appears Ike's core is intact enough to allow for strengthening, and it likely will as it enters the warm Gulf, as it nears the western Gulf, however, shear is expected to increase, which would cap how strong Ike gets. Ike has a chance to go over one warm eddy, and that's when I'd look for any rapid strengthening.



The track as it stands tonight (it will likely change again) takes it inland between Corpus Christi and Galveston, sear San Antonio bay. The cone, however reaches into Mexico and north toward Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center notes that some of the dynamic models are north of the current NHC track, and depending on the trends could move a little more in that direction later.

By tomorrow things should start to gel and a general landfall area will become more clear. Areas to just to the north and east of the system's landfall location would see the worst storm surge, and areas where the eyewall impacts would see the worst winds from Ike. Ike is currently forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane upon landfall, but it could be stronger or weaker depending on how much shear affects it later in its lifetime.

Those in the 3 day cone (solid white) should pay attention to local media and officials along with local weather statements for more information.

There is about a 15-20% chance that Ike will become a Category 4 storm again. Watches, warnings or beginnings of Evacuations may be done in certain areas along the Texas coast as early as tomorrow afternoon or Thursday, stay tuned to local sources for more information. Ike is turning into a large storm, and winds will affect a good area of coastline. If you are in the solid white cone of Ike, especially on the right hand side, I would start to prepare and plan tomorrow.

It is currently traveling West Northwest

September 9th 6 AM Update

Hurricane Ike, containing a small eye, is weaker this morning, but still maintains a decent pressure, and is offshore south of Cuba, moving generally westward. It still has not moved into the Gulf, and may make landfall in Cuba near where Gustav made landfall there before. It's generally heading westward, the cone now only includes Central Mexico north to around Galveston/Houston in Texas. With the most likely area north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi.



Model projections move it further west, so it could be closer toward the Texas Mexico border or in Mexico, but this is still too early to tell. It does appear that points east are much less likely to see anything at all from Ike, even the Keys were not affected much because Ike stayed generally south of Cuba.

Outside of Ike, there really isn't anything else going on now. Josephine's remnants have for the most part dissipated, and none of the waves off Africa did much, so it looks like there may be a short break for a few days outside of Ike.

Original Update
Hurricane Ike made lanfall in the Las Tunas Province of Cuba overnight and has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane because of land interaction. it is expected to continue moving westward today through Cuba and most likely will stay over land the entire trek, eventually entering the Gulf south and west of Havana. It is forecast to weaken all the way to a Tropical Storm. The storm has moved a little south this morning, so the forecast track may be off some. This may allow it back over the waters of the Caribbean for a bit.



Once back in the Gulf, restrengthening will be determined by just how much Ike was disrupted. The track is expected to move then more northwestward and enter the Central Gulf, beyond three days it's just too soon to tell. Until Ike has cleared Cuba a bit, the entire Gulf Coast, from Mexico to the Florida Panhandle will need to watch Ike. Current guidance trends put Northeast Texas and Louisiana with the highest probability of Ike getting near, but it is mich too soon to tell with any confidence.

Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)

Texas Emergency Management Reports

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX


Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management


Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston

Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio

Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Corpus Christi Caller-Times

Color Sat of Gulf (Animation)

Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports


Ike Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ike


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ike (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ike (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ike

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ike
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ike -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Beach
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #84590 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:52 AM

It sure looks like the center of Ike is going to make it to the SOUTH coast of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
The southern portion of the eye wall is already leaving the coast.
Sure will be interesting to see the actual location of the center at 08/18UTC
If Ike does make it to the South Coast, will be interesting to see if he ramps back up to a Cat. 3


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: Beach]
      #84596 - Mon Sep 08 2008 10:41 AM

Not much room for the eye South of Cuban coast. The water will help a bit but The Cuban terrain has mountains that will not be conducive to strengthening. I see a Cat 1 at best entering the Gulf and like Gustav, Ike will have a struggle to regain CAT 3 or 4 intensity.

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wickedwitch
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #84603 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:49 PM

Would someone direct me to a graphic that would show updated GOM water temperatures? I am new here. I am guessing water temperature would be the primary kick-start for Ike after leaving Cuba?

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Thunderbird12
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: wickedwitch]
      #84607 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:19 PM

Ike looks rather skeletal right now with not much in the way of vigorous convection, but the overall structure of the storm is very healthy. The center has pushed offshore, which will give it an opportunity to at least hold its own if not intensify a little bit. That is not guaranteed, though, as it is still close enough to the coast to suffer adverse effects. It appears to be moving very slightly north of due west, but there is no sign of a definitive turn to the WNW yet.

To answer the question above, the link below has information on SST and TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) for the Gulf:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: wickedwitch]
      #84608 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:27 PM

Not sure if someone is sending this already; Here you go

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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SM22
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84610 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:47 PM

Quote:

Ike looks rather skeletal right now with not much in the way of vigorous convection, but the overall structure of the storm is very healthy. The center has pushed offshore, which will give it an opportunity to at least hold its own if not intensify a little bit. That is not guaranteed, though, as it is still close enough to the coast to suffer adverse effects. It appears to be moving very slightly north of due west, but there is no sign of a definitive turn to the WNW yet.

To answer the question above, the link below has information on SST and TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) for the Gulf:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html




I agree. Looks like a movement to the NW. Maybe just a wobble.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: SM22]
      #84612 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:08 PM

Recon just reached the center of Ike, it looks like. Based on the HDOBs, it looks like the advisory estimate of 85 kts (100 mph) may be considerably too high. Flight-level winds near the center on their approach were not strong at all and the pressure gradient looks like it is pretty flat, indicating that there is no well-defined inner core.

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Raymond
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84613 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:12 PM

Yes, central pressure up to around 969 hPa and winds hardly justify a hurricane. Let´s see, if they`ll find some higher winds. So Ike has weakened quite more than expected!

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: Raymond]
      #84621 - Mon Sep 08 2008 03:30 PM

If Ike has weakened this much this is extremely good news. Let's hope the hills of Cuba take even more of a toll on this storm so when it emerges into the Gulf that it has difficult time re energizing.

Let's hope the news continues to be good on the deterioration of Ikes winds and pressure.


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Raymond
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Re: Ike Weaker, Over Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #84622 - Mon Sep 08 2008 03:41 PM

But also remember, that there is bad news behind this good news. Ike weakened, because he passed over land and the people there suffered greatly.

Meteorological news: All dynamical modells track Ike to different spots in Texas (12:00 UTC runs). So there is better agreement now between the modells.


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Beach
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Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84629 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:36 PM

Well Ike might get the big 1 2 sucker punch.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Sure looks like the center is diving back towards the
inland. Certainly will help out the folks in the keys.
Long run over land should give it a good wack.


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kromdog
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Beach]
      #84634 - Mon Sep 08 2008 05:08 PM

Quote:

Well Ike might get the big 1 2 sucker punch.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Sure looks like the center is diving back towards the
inland. Certainly will help out the folks in the keys.
Long run over land should give it a good wack.




This track may weaken the storm, but also may bring it out of Cuba closer to the keys.


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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
past storms weakened...but... [Re: kromdog]
      #84637 - Mon Sep 08 2008 05:26 PM

Hurricane Frederic in 1979 weakened to a depression after leaving Cuba.....and slammed into Mobile as a cat 3....strong cat 3...

if Ike maintains a cat 1 intensity...once it reaches the gulf...there will be plenty of time for it to ramp up. Since small deviations in the direction now extrapolate to huge distances five days out...look for the "cone" to continually change. The models are in agreement...which makes me somewhat agreeable to the NHC's forecast. However, as I recall, Hurricane Katrina was supposed to slam into Texas...Houston....remember?
it went much East. they tend to go more north..as they get more north...the polar coriolis effect?

Can the high pressure ridges that are in place cause the hurricane to slow it's forward speed? I would look at that too.

no one is out of the woods, from Texas...to the Florida Panhandle...and even the keys...

imho


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: kromdog]
      #84639 - Mon Sep 08 2008 05:30 PM

A late-arriving vortex message that was valid about an hour ago had the pressure down to 965 mb from 970 mb, with flight-level winds up to 73 kts. It was still reporting a concentric eyewall structure, but the inner eyewall had shrunk to 10 mi in diameter (from 15) and the outer eyewall had shrunk to 50 mi wide (from 60). The center fix also confirmed a more northerly motion that seems to be evident on recent satellite images. Whether or not this is the start of the expected turn to the WNW remains to be seen.

edit: A subsequent vortex message has the pressure at 967 mb, with the other information the same. I take it the plane is having communications problems, because it stopped sending HDOBs 2 hours ago and the vortex messages have been coming in late.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Sep 08 2008 05:47 PM)


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Allison
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84640 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:21 PM

The last few shots of the visible satellite looks like Ike is headed back over land:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

--------------------
Allison


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flahurricane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Allison]
      #84641 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:47 PM

just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.

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Raymond
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Allison]
      #84642 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:56 PM

Yes, center fixes, cuban radar and high res visible satellite confirm a WNW-motion, somtimes even wobbling NW. So after some reorganzition and slight restrengthening during the last hours over water the center is now at the coastline and runs into the montains of central Cuba and the center should stay for a longer time more inland again (but relatively close to the coast at the beginning). So there should be some more of weakening and I can hardly imagine a to see a hurricane emerging in the Gulf later on.

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Hugh
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84644 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:58 PM

Quote:

just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.




It's still too early to say with certainty that Ike will be a Texas storm. Certainly current models point that way, as does the official forecast... but... Ike appears to have already made its second landfall over Cuba, just a few hours after moving offshore. It's too early to determine if this is a wobble or a definitive change in motion, of course, but it appears that Ike is a considerable distance north of the forecast track.

Edit: Local (WALA FOX 10 in Mobile) weather just said "we could be getting some rain from Ike later in the week"... if Ike were certain to move to Texas, Mobile would not get rain, would it?


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:01 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84645 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:59 PM

This storm has been as steady as I can remember a storm and unlike a few earlier ones this year..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_09L/webManager/displayJavaBy12hr_21.html

just an amazing look at a storm who doesn't give up

they have been forecasting that slow turn to wnw so imagine it will happen as they have been very good with the track from day to day, especially with Ike

definitely north of forecasted point.. almost looks to be moving faster

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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StrmTrckrMiami
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84646 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:59 PM

Currently in Lee County, Florida, we have started to feel the effects of Ike. Current conditions are winds of up to 20mph, and we are getting downpours of rain. They have told us to expect Tornado Warnings..The Keys have a mandatory evacuation also..

http://www.nbc-2.com/Articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=21463&z=63

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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andy1tom
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84650 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:23 PM

and based on the floater loop it moved faster than expected. it still could cause a little trouble in the keys especially if its a trend going farther north and not a jog

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Hugh
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84651 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:25 PM

I just pulled up the Key West long-range radar, and the eye of Ike is just within the radar range, it looks like. Assuming it IS the eye, this is another indication that Ike is beginning to wobble or turn, and is just onshore along the south coast of Cuba.

Edit: Well, as Raymond indicates below.. it must have been a wobble because the Key West radar also shows what the recon did, that the LLC is offshore. Radar now seems to indicate a west wobble.

8pm is out.... and CONFIRMS motion is now WNW at 12mph... so, the turn has begun....



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:50 PM)


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pcola
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84653 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:39 PM

gfs has gone from Mobile al last night to Brownsville TX on latest run....shows after 3 days, models are still far from accurate

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Raymond
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84654 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:39 PM

No, last center fix some minutes ago shows it just offshore moving WNW. The wind data would justify a cat. 1 with 70-75 kt. It looks like, as it should move just offshore parallel to the coast for a while and then go past Cienfuegos a bit inland later on. Nevertheles it`ll be a hard fight for Ike to stay a hurricane!

Edited by Raymond (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:40 PM)


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Raymond
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84655 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:48 PM

And the very latest GFS run (18:00 UTC) shows it making landfall at the Texas-Mexico-border. So will it be no US-landfall in the end?
And the HWRF follows with a 917 hPa-landfall near Corpus Christi, TX.
And wow, Air Force Recon is leaving straight to the north via Cuba. Haven´t seen this yet!
And a final edit: The GFDL follows with a 942 hpa-landfall near Corpus Christi, too. Very good agreement between this three, even in the face of the fact, that the two hurricane modells GFDL and HWRF get their border data from the global GFS. Landfall time in around 102-108 h ( should be the night from saturday to sunday local time).
And a Good Night to Florida!

Edited by Raymond (Mon Sep 08 2008 08:18 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: andy1tom]
      #84658 - Mon Sep 08 2008 08:47 PM

well that was what i was worried on .. winds picked up in miami strong tonight, winds 29mph with gusts 42mph
so though expected i was wondering if the weather mass itself was also lifting higher

hard to tell but i think he is moving faster.. hard to tell

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_09L/webManager/displayJavaBy12hr_21.html

looks wnw on this loop

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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flahurricane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84660 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:37 PM

Quote:

Quote:

just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.




It's still too early to say with certainty that Ike will be a Texas storm. Certainly current models point that way, as does the official forecast... but... Ike appears to have already made its second landfall over Cuba, just a few hours after moving offshore. It's too early to determine if this is a wobble or a definitive change in motion, of course, but it appears that Ike is a considerable distance north of the forecast track.

Edit: Local (WALA FOX 10 in Mobile) weather just said "we could be getting some rain from Ike later in the week"... if Ike were certain to move to Texas, Mobile would not get rain, would it?





I tend to trust the NHC and hurricane forecast models rather than local weather stations. Every local station on the gulf I'm sure has said "we may see rain etc due to ike". Also its not impossible that you will see rain. Bands from the storm could effect a large area as it passes to your south, toward Texas.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84661 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:48 PM

I am compleately flummoxed with this storm . Has anyone a handle on IKE?
I am unable to differentiate deasil from widdershins.
HELP!

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #84667 - Mon Sep 08 2008 11:14 PM

A video of Ike's affect on Cuba: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

Maybe someone that speaks spanish can clue us in on what they are saying.

Ike looks to be regenerating some now that it is over water. GFDL keeps the storm mostly over water until it reaches the western tip of Cuba. Going to be interesting watching where the storm actually heads.

NHC has released it's 11pm, keeping Ike at Category 1, though a very well organized yet disrupted category 1. The official forecast cone calls for landfall almost anywhere in the northwest portion of the gulf, from LA through northern Mexico. Expect variation in this cone as the storm continues to defy long range predictions, as it has most of the last week (ergo, even if you aren't in the cone, beware).

-- RC


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LoisCane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #84669 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:03 AM

The NHC has a good handle on the storm. It wobbles nw .. it wobbles west, when you "smooth out the movement" it's wnw.

And, really he has been an easy storm in ways compared to the others...w or wnw or wsw at 14...

Rarely sped up, hasn't stalled out (watch him do it now) and hasn't done any really strange deep dips..

Just plods along, at one point I was worried on the Yucatan today but think he'll go the distance to the borderlands.

Images from Cuba spellbinding..

And... Ike looks strong to me. Not a wet storm ever, read a few times when he was a 4 he was a dry, windy storm like Andrew.

Still spinning, and pounding Cuba and he found his way to stay over water as much as he could.

A very memorable storm.

NHC is doing a good job...their 5 day not withstanding .. but their 3 day has been pretty good.

Great pic
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/atlantic/tropics/vapor/LATEST.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84671 - Tue Sep 09 2008 01:11 AM

IKE is pretty straight forward since Sunday morning. I'm still guessing a Corpus Christi-Brownsville landfall even though models want to now take this further into Mexico.I'll wait for Tuesdays 12Z run but it looks good by looking at other data.

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Mike V
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84683 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:17 AM

Quote:

A video of Ike's affect on Cuba: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

Maybe someone that speaks spanish can clue us in on what they are saying.
-- RC



Basically they are saying about the waves going past the five story building, sustained winds of 40 km/h with gust to 140 km/h, the extensive flooding, rains and damage.

MV

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Mike V]
      #84692 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:22 PM

The center of Ike is about to pass over the mountainous area of eastern Cuba. The amount that it gets disrupted will be crucial to its eventual intensity. Conditions over the Gulf look like they will be very favorable for intensification in the next 36-48 hours, but maybe less so after that. If Ike takes a long time to recover from Cuba, it may miss its window of opportunity for significant intensification.

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danielwAdministrator
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Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84698 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:58 PM

At Ike's current speed. He should reach the GOM in 2 hours.
At better than 124nm range the EYE is defined on radar.

The ride is about to get very rough. The Captain has turned on the Seat Belt sign. And Key West is about to see some thunderous rainfall.



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Thunderbird12
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: danielw]
      #84704 - Tue Sep 09 2008 03:09 PM

Ike seems to have a rather strange structure, with a very large cyclonic circulation, but only a very small inner core area, and a substantial dry area outside of the immediate inner core. If that inner core comes apart again in its present state, Ike may never fully recover. So far, IR tops are warming, but the inner core appears to still be intact.

The dry area surrounding the inner core could also be a disruptive factor if it persists and if Ike ever attempts another ERC at some point in the future.


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ltpat228
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Re: Normal Hurricane Weather [Re: danielw]
      #84706 - Tue Sep 09 2008 03:28 PM

Quote:

The ride is about to get very rough. The Captain has turned on the Seat Belt sign. And Key West is about to see some thunderous rainfall.




I don't know about any captains turning on signs, but you are correct about rainfall, danielw...as here in my state of Florida, especially South Florida - we are certainly feeling the outer effects of Ike's gusty winds and moisture.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...ire=0&tor=0


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AdvAutoBob
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: ltpat228]
      #84709 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:01 PM

West Coast (Cape Coral) currently getting squalls and wind gusts from Ike's outer bands...

Not a good day to ride the Harley..

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Raymond
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #84710 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:12 PM

Recon just welcomed Ike in the Gulf. HDOB says: pressure 968 hPa, no winds higher then 55 kt at flight level and surface until now. Let´s wait for the vortes message!
edit: Ok, 62 kt estimated surface wind and an circular eye open to the SE.

Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 09 2008 04:35 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Raymond]
      #84711 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:36 PM

HDOBs indicate a secondary wind maximum well removed (around 60-70 miles) from the center. The tiny inner core is still there but is rather feeble looking right now. It'll be interesting to see how Ike evolves over the Gulf.

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Raymond
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84712 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:44 PM

Yes, the circulation is really huge and the winds in this remote band to the ENE are even higher as in the center (66 kt flight level, 74 kt surface). The inner core doesn´t look strong. I would gues, that Ike needs a lot of time to recover over the Gulf. We will see!

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Christian
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84713 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:46 PM

I have been using Cuba's government weather site for tracking Gustav and Ike. Here is the link to a radar that is closest to Ike: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../csbMaxw01a.gif .

Christian


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SeaMule
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forward speed slower..dynamics in shape [Re: Christian]
      #84715 - Tue Sep 09 2008 05:19 PM

what if....the models re-calculate the forward speed...now that it is going just 10 miles per hour...
they didn't predict this slow down...

what if....it slows down more?

NO one is out of the cone right now....the models and the projections tend to push more polar and east....and the hurricanes tend to go right of the forecast models....

the outflow is impressive in all four quadrants, the inner core is well established...and as the NHC said..it will pass over very warm eddies....with that....it was mentioned that a stronger storm would tend to go more north on the forecast track...

I see a much more northerly hit that the NHC is posting....


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Christian]
      #84717 - Tue Sep 09 2008 05:43 PM

Pressure already down on second AF Recon pass... down 1 mb...

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 21:15:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°54'N 83°42'W (22.9N 83.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 33 miles (53 km) to the N (359°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,820m (9,252ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg) - Extrapolated

L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:39:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb

Kermit is inbound from the NW and about to pass the AF Recon heading outbound

Dropsonde released in the NE eyewall supports a Hurricane... winds from 70-80mph less than 2kft above surface

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 09 2008 05:45 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84720 - Tue Sep 09 2008 06:44 PM

Now that Ike is back over water in the Gulf, Central to Northern Texas needs to be watching closely. I updated the main page with more information.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: MikeC]
      #84722 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:27 PM Attachment (192 downloads)

The last couple frames of IR show an eye starting to reform, and radar from Key West confirms it within the last 15 minutes.



The eye had previously collapsed on IR and Radar following it's pass over the mountains in Cuba, between Daniel's post and it's exit over the gulf water.


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Raymond
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84723 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:33 PM

In the last sunlight on very recent visible imagery you can see the forming of hot towers in the eyewall. This could be the start of the formation of a strong and healty core!

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84728 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:10 PM

According to SST data from NOAA, this rapid regeneration is over a relatively cool location in the GOM:

SSTs: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008252gosst.png
Huricane Heat Potential: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008252go.jpg

Also, IR data is showing a rapid reformation of a strong core, though aircraft recon has not indicates winds or pressure beginning to pick up. It's headed strait toward the Loop current - so we will see what happens over the next 24 hours.


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flahurricane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84729 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:12 PM

Ike's about to hit the loop current which Gustav missed. I think Ike could become a very dangerous hurricane.

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shewtinstar
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84730 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:13 PM

What is the loop current?

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flahurricane
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84731 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:16 PM

The loop current is an area of very warm water to significant depths which can fuel tropical systems. At this time it is located in the southeast Gulf.

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shewtinstar
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84732 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:20 PM

Thank you. I just did some reading about it and it seems that most of the hurricanes that have passed over it intensified to no weaker than a CAT 3, most of them being 4's or 5's.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84734 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:26 PM

Given Ike's existing organization even after passing over Cuba for a day and a half, combined with the rapid reformation of the core, that Ike is heading toward the loop current has me quite worried as to his potential.

Shewtinstar, if you look at the Hurricane Heat Potential link I provided in my above post, the orange finger sticking up into the Gulf is the Loop Current. It is a relatively stationary current that cycles water vertically causing the water to be very warm very deep, and thus providing excellent power source for hurricanes.


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shewtinstar
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84735 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:37 PM

And given Ike's track, it looks like he will be over the loop for a while. That can't be a good thing.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84736 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:49 PM

For those interested in the reformation of the core, the eye is clearly visible on:

Key West Radar
Cuban Radar
IR Satellite
Microwave 85GHz Polarization Corrected Temperature

Additionally, the system appears to be flaring convection in two outer spiral bands to the SE and to the NW. At the same time, it appears to be shedding outer convection outside these two spiral bands.

Last, the hurricane hunter is continuing to report little to no change in central pressure per HDOB data, and flight level wind maximas appear to be quite low. The central pressure supports significantly higher winds than are being found in the central core. In fact, SFMR has not recently detected any hurricane force winds on a storm that has a pressure that should indicate category 2 winds should be found.

This is a storm badly disrupted by Cuba, but very much intact organizationally. It's satellite appearance appears typical of a storm much stronger than we are seeing, and with the convection flaring and a definite eye developing, it has all the characteristics of significant restrengthening over the next dozen hours. Unlike Gustov that came off Cuba with bad disruption in the core and having been ripped apart organizationally, Ike is showing none of these signs of further deterioration, and in fact is showing the opposite results.

It is simply amazing to see a storm that has been over land so long stay so intact.

Edit: And soon after I post this, recon HDOB detected 64kt surface winds via SFMR - that's the minimum for hurricane force, so it's definitely back to a category 1 storm. Too long enough for the plane to find winds that strong...and in the Western eyewall too. Wonder what the E and NE have by now - probably stronger.

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 09 2008 10:11 PM)


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JoshuaK
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84737 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:51 PM

I think Ike might become our first (and maybe last) Cat 5 of the season. Too early to tell yet, but the storm has doubled in size since just before it hit Cuba, yet the core of the storm is still well and intact after coming off the coast.

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shewtinstar
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84738 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:54 PM

It looks like Ike is almost stationary in the radar loops.

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JoshuaK
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84741 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:38 PM

I dunno, the last few frames it looks like when the eye reaches 23.2N 84W it started taking a westward jog and is about now at 23.2N 83.4W. The storm will probably be jogging between W to NW motions until it intensifies enough to resist the effects of the ridge to it's north.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #84742 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:44 PM

11pm is out... TD sums it up nicely

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...


One thing i noted.. Ike slowed down just a tad.. to 8kts

I expect ike is about to make a run up to a strong Major Cane in the next 12-24 hrs...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

just watching the loop, its amazing to see the inner core flare up and an eye pop up in the center of convection... nice inner banding showing up. i see the eyewall is closed per last vortex

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 09 2008 10:51 PM)


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TheElNino1
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NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: MikeC]
      #84743 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:56 PM Attachment (230 downloads)

Ike has that 'look' this evening of becoming a formidable hurricane very soon. It has a small eye but a large area of circulation to pull in and focus a lot of energy. I expect significant strengthening over the next 48 hours with a very favorable environment with the loop current providing extra fuel to intensify. Look at this pic of Camille. She had a small eye but also had a large circulation in the Gulf.

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Steve H1
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Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: TheElNino1]
      #84744 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:08 PM

I believe Ike has stalled. I believe this was something that might have been anticipated as there is a trough to the north/northwest. He should resume a WNW path. In the last 6 frames though. he ain't moving.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #84745 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:30 PM

Look at the raw Dvorak numbers out of CMISS! Up to 5.7 with the 3-hour average still only 3.9, which matches the recorded wind speeds. Once the winds catch up to this strengthening, 5.7 indicates that it should become a strong Cat 3.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt09L.html

This is a storm I would definitely keep a close eye on, considering it is still over that cooler pool of water in the gulf, and won't reach the loop current until sometime tomorrow.

--

Recon HDOB: >50kt surface winds over more than 110mi radius. The plane hasn't found their edge yet in the northern quadrant, and it's about 110mi from the eye. Further, except for one or two HDOB points, it never drops under 50kts that entire distance!

Edit: Recon found the edge of 50kt surface winds at about 120 miles out!

--

Also, look at the spin on that storm! The radius of that convective spiral (the north/south convective ring outside the core) is about 100 miles out. That's about 620 miles circumference, and it has rotated 180 degrees in 4.5 hours. That is a rotational speed of 60 kts or 70mph!

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 09 2008 11:47 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Steve H1]
      #84746 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:46 PM

Ike is a fascinating storm to watch on satellite loops. It is really giving a pinwheel effect with two lobes of convection rotating around a small inner core. If you watch closely, you can see those two lobes moving in an almost perfect circle around the center. Recon obs indicate an outer wind maximum at the radius where those lobes are rotating, where the winds have been observed as strong or stronger than in the inner core. That outer radius is almost functioning as a very wide concentric eyewall.

As long as the convection on the outer band of the storm is as strong or stronger than that in the inner core, it will be a struggle for Ike to deepen very rapidly. The system as a whole is becoming stronger, but much of the energy is apparently being used to expand the size of the storm and maintain a large radius of strong winds, rather than being focused near the center. This is probably too simple of an explanation, but Ike's small inner core is basically competing with its outer band right now.

When Ike first hit Cuba, it was in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle that it never seemed to finish. Ever since then, it seems to have exhibited an outer wind maximum, if not always an outer eyewall. I am not an expert on hurricane dynamics, but I would guess that the disruption from the outer wind max will not go away until an eyewall cycle is completed. Whatever the case, the inner core will have to take over at some point if Ike is going to significantly intensify.


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Rich B
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Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84750 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:20 AM

Wel Ike seems to be giving it a shot at organising better. The maximum surface winds reported by recon at 0600z were just 6 miles NW of the centre. However, peak flight level winds were reported some 83 miles northwest of the centre. Ike also has an elliptical eye some 20 miles long and 10 miles wide. Given the fact that the eye seen earlier in IR imagery has now gone, and microwave data suggesting the possibility of a second outer eye, perhaps Ike is undergoing some ERC. This would also explain the overall expansion of the storm to a degree too.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Random Chaos
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Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Rich B]
      #84751 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:32 AM

Eyewall dropsonde just found: 91kt surface winds

Vortex Recon:

URNT12 KNHC 100743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/07:08:30Z
B. 23 deg 27 min N
084 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 76 kt
E. 021 deg 5 nm
F. 116 deg 072 kt
G. 025 deg 008 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 10 C/ 3052 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. E30/20/10

N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 06:24:00 Z

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 10 2008 03:50 AM)


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Raymond
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Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84752 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:43 AM

Yes, that´s frightening.
I don´t think of a ERC but of violent restructurings around the center. The convection is bursting heavely and the center is quite asymetrical. Ithink, this violent processes around the center will go on for a while, until a strong, more symetrical center is formed. But all signs are for intensification now, may be also periods of rapid intensification.
There had been already a period of those violent processes around the center of Ike after the strong shear relaxed and the asymtrical center had become more symetrical ( somewhere before reaching the Bahamas).


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danielwAdministrator
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6am EDT Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84755 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:30 AM

URNT12 KNHC 101016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/09:59:00Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
085 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2768 m
D. 62 kt
E. 197 deg 4 nm
F. 284 deg 055 kt
G. 200 deg 005 nm
H. EXTRAP 963 mb
I. 10 C/ 3045 m
J. 15 C/ 3047 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 20
MAX FL WIND AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OUTBOUND 83 KT NE QUAD 10:02:00 Z MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 74KTS NE QUAD 10:01:40Z.
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
STRONG CONVECTION NE QUAD, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING

edit-Lightning is normally found in tropical cyclones that are increasing in intensity~danielw

Using a modified SSHS a 963mb pressure should be nearly equal to a 112 mph surface wind, using the pressure-wind relationship.
So there is a strong disparity between what Ike's present winds are and what they could be.

Easy formula for the surface wind/ pressure relationship is 1000mb - current pressure = N.
N+75 equals the maximum possible surface wind speed in mph. This formula is not set in stone as Katrina, Rita and Wilma all exceeded the pressure/ wind relationship by quite a bit.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84757 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:03 AM

UZNT13 KNHC 101157
XXAA 60127 99238 70853 08135 99959

23.8N/ 85.3W 959mb


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Random Chaos
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Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84758 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:07 AM

(delete me - daniel and I are posting the same stuff at the same time)

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 10 2008 08:13 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84759 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:12 AM

URNT12 KNHC 101201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/11:44:10Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
085 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2745 m
D. 78 kt
E. 321 deg 6 nm
F. 046 deg 078 kt
G. 321 deg 008 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 12 C/ 3053 m
J. 16 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NW QUAD 11:42:00 Z
SFC CENTER VERTICAL WITH FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER


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craigm
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 244
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84760 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:34 AM Attachment (261 downloads)

Recon sure is busy with 2 planes out there plus the Gulfstream.
See attached

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Wed Sep 10 2008 08:35 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: craigm]
      #84761 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:41 AM

Good. The Gulfstream Jet is I think the most powerful tool we have currently. More valuable than the models as the models are only as good as the information plugged into them and with the data from the gulfstream jet we are less likely to have garbage out but a clearer picture of the evolving atmospheric choices Ike has down the road.

It's nice to look at long range 5 day forecasts but if you don't get the 1 and 2 day right the models and track of the 45 day are wrong. Gulfstream Jet is the best.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

The water vapor loop this morning looks vastly different from yesterday at this time.

And, he is not jogging n of forecasted points he is now officially going NW though the bend back to the wnw is still expected. After sampling the atmosphere around the storm we may get a clearer more definitive opinion if the NW movement is real or a temporary jog.

Lastly... forward speed is a real issue here. It creeps up on you. It went steady 14 mph and 13 for days and as steadily slowed down to 8. Near 8. That s l o w forward speed and deviation from his usual nature over the last week is something that needs to be addressed and watched carefully.

Let's deal with Ike and not imagine it as Katrina or the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Let's deal with today and what Ike is telling us about where he is going please.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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threw-er-back
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Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: LoisCane]
      #84763 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:59 AM

Awesome imagery!...I'm ignorant to most of whats discussed here and want to learn but with that image it looks like what I'd call a front coming out of Mexico to the east..Wont that steer Ike into FLA. or NE GOM?

--------------------
Lurking to learn


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danielwAdministrator
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Forecast Points [Re: threw-er-back]
      #84764 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:12 AM

Ike is current 0.4 degrees or about 25nm north of the Forecast point from 24 hours ago.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.public_a.037.shtml?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 22.0N 82.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 22.7N 83.5W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 86.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 88.5W 95 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.discus.033.shtml?


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dolfinatic
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Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: LoisCane]
      #84765 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:13 AM

Also with Ike intensifying are we not going to see a more poleward motion? Also the steering winds come from a higher level if i am thinking correctly. Which would change the forecast toward the central gulf coast instead of Texas due to a weakness between two highs. One over east central Texas and the bermuda high. But then again I could be completely off base. web page

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Forecast Points [Re: danielw]
      #84767 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:17 AM

Yesterday's 8 AM Discussion directional heading.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.discus.033.shtml?

Today's Discussional direction:
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.discus.037.shtml?


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Re: Forecast Points [Re: danielw]
      #84771 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:27 AM

By the way, as shown by recent center fixes of recon Ike has moved nearly straight to the west since 4 hours!! The current mission unfortunately sends no vortex data messages, only high density data. Pressure is down to around 955-956 hPa and highest surface wind up to 81 kt. So it looks like a steady intensification.
edit: This time they did a vortex data message: pressure 957 hPa and eywall poorly defined!!

Edited by Raymond (Wed Sep 10 2008 10:53 AM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Forecast Points [Re: Raymond]
      #84773 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:34 AM

Ike looks like it might be trying to consolidate some, but there is still a definite outer wind maximum well removed from the center. The system is definitely more convectively vigorous than it was yesterday, so further consolidation is possible.

The motion of Ike appears to have been rather erratic over the last couple of hours. That may be due to some internal reorganization, or a temporary weakening of steering currents, or some combination of the two.


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Beach
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Re: Forecast Points [Re: danielw]
      #84774 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:39 AM

Hey Guys,

I have a quick question.
Last night when I was going to bed, the eye of Ike was well defined. This morning up until about 5am the eye was well defined.
The sun came up and the center clouded over.
Why do we think that is? IRC ? Dyno Gel ? (lol)
For being in a favorable environment it doesn't look like it.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
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Re: Forecast Points [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84775 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:42 AM

It seems to me, that Ike sucks in some drier air, which is to the west of the storm. The outflow to the west seems also a bit restricted. The storm is a bit asymetrical with a weaker west side and a stronger east side,
This could prevent phases of rapid weakening.
edit: As I look on the last microwave passes, the poorly defined eye and the entrainment of drier air I even think: Ike will struggle the next hours and he won´t intensify further for a certain time.

Edited by Raymond (Wed Sep 10 2008 11:11 AM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Forecast Points [Re: Raymond]
      #84779 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:43 AM

Since last night I have observed a couple of things. The outer bands of cold cloud tops that were swirling around the center in 2 large globs have since all but disappeared. The coldest cloud tops are now closer to the center so Ike is bundling the energy closer in. Ike was undergoing an EWR when it hit Cuba the first time which it did not complete totally. I think what is happening is that the smaller eye is eroding in favor of a larger one. This was mentioned in the 11am discussion. Once the new and larger eye forms (and I have little doubt it will), I think we will see some rapid deepening. The question is does Ike do this in the time he has? This slow motion right now is just buying more time.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Raymond
Weather Guru


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Re: Forecast Points [Re: WeatherNut]
      #84782 - Wed Sep 10 2008 12:03 PM

This would be not a classic ERC. There isn`t a second concentric wall, but an outer band trying to wrap around. Yes, it could wrap fully around and take over the center later on, but it`ll take time!

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Forecast Points [Re: Raymond]
      #84791 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:50 PM

Evacuations are starting:

Texas: Brazoria County

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for zip zone 77541, a special needs evacuation order is in place for the entire county. A voluntary evacation is in place for the entire county. Residents in the coastal areas and those requiring transportation from Brazoria county to Bell County must rush their preparations to completion.


Galveston County:

A voluntary evacuation will begin this afternoon for Bolivar Peninsula... The west end of Galveston Island, including Jamaica Beach, San Leon, Bacliff, Bayou Vista, Omega Bay.... Tiki Island...Dickinson...Kemah...and Clear Lake Shores.

Citizens may also consider evacuation if they live in low-lying areas subject to flooding or in mobile homes. If you decide to evacuate... please remember to pack your disaster kit and important papers.

The Galveston-Bolivar ferry will likely cease operations at 11PM Thursday night.

Jackson County:

A voluntary Evacuation has been initiated for the entire county.

Matagorda County:

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for people who live and work south of Highway 355.

This mandatory evacuation includes the communities of Palacios, Ashby-Buckeye, El Maton, Collegeport, Matagorda, Wadsworth, Sargent, Cedar Lane, Chinquapin, Tres Palacios Oaks, and Tidewater Oaks.

Blessing is also included in the mandatory evacuation even though it is north of highway 35. The mandatory evacuation does not include Bay City or Van Vleck.


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doug
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Re: Forecast Points [Re: MikeC]
      #84800 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:36 PM

Is anybody paying attention to what is actually going on with IKE? Its structure is not too good, and I have seen as much northern component to the movement as westward (It does not seem to be making much progress actually).

What is going on?

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
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Vertically Stacked [Re: doug]
      #84802 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:42 PM

It's not very often that you see a Vortex Report with the surface center inline with the 10000 foot center.

URNT12 KNHC 101805 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/17:29:50Z
B. 24 deg 10 min N
085 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2738 m
D. 68 kt
E. 312 deg 052 nm
F. 027 deg 073 kt
G. 312 deg 053 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 15 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 02 CCA
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00 Z
SFC CTR VISIBLE; COLLOCATED WITH FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 315/06NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 79KT SE QUAD 1732:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 76KT SE QUAD 1732:00Z


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Colleen A.
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Re: Forecast Points [Re: doug]
      #84803 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:48 PM

I have noticed that northward component all day..and not just for a couple of hours, either. I would say that if this continues, it is not going to be considered a trend. In fact, the 2pm has it going NW (which I can see..it goes a little west, then north - but more North).
I don't know what's going on...but people all along the Gulf Coast better pay real close attention to Ike.
We got hit by a squall here in Lakeland that had small trees bending over - and I bet the winds were over 40mph..and dumped at least 1" of rain into the McDonald's we were at when it hit. Meanwhile, everyone was staring at the TV screen as they showed Ike supposedly going W/NW.
Remember..some of the outlier models had further east of the current track..only a couple, but that could change.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: danielw]
      #84804 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:00 PM

From the last two Vortex fixes... difference is 0.10 N/ 0.08W.
I think that would be more NNW... ugh!

URNT12 KNHC 101939
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/19:09:50Z
B. 24 deg 20 min N
085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2723 m
D. 70 kt
E. 046 deg 10 nm
F. 140 deg 089 kt
G. 046 deg 091 nm
H. EXTRAP 958 mb
I. 11 C/ 3046 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 08
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 47 / 9NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
SFC CTR COLOCATED WITH FL CENTER
SFC WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY


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Scott3294
Registered User


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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: danielw]
      #84806 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:04 PM

Nothing too scientific, but if you run this animation and rock it back and forth you can see pretty clearly that it is moving between 315 and 325 degrees...so NW or NNW seems right.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: danielw]
      #84807 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:11 PM

Ike has a huge circulation. The most recent vortex message indicates that the max FL wind of 93 kts was found 91 nautical miles (about 105 statute miles) NE of the center. That is quite a bit stronger than any winds found near the center of Ike. Ike's size and the presence of outer wind maxima will make it a struggle for Ike to intensify very rapidly. The rather anemic inner core needs to become much, much stronger for Ike to consolidate. Otherwise, slow intensification and lower max wind speeds than you would expect from the central pressure will be the rule.

Ike was drifting north earlier, but seems to have resumed a mostly NW motion. The weak trough to the north of Ike is in the process of lifting out, so Ike should make a turn back to WNW later tonight.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Scott3294]
      #84808 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:14 PM

Yes,,you can see it...but I wonder why and what is causing this NW/NNW motion? Is there a weakening in the high pressure that is supposed to be so strong? Or is it just a temporary motion since it's going so slow? Or is it just that our eyes have been watching this storm for so long that we're seeing things?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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pcola
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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Colleen A.]
      #84811 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:23 PM

some of the models had Ike moving more NW in the Gulf until the high builds west, which would turn the storm more west..the diff. is not too much, but the shift in the GFDL continues to put Houston more under the gun...the slower speed means the turn may begin more near landfall

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
nw movement...perhaps nnw [Re: Colleen A.]
      #84813 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:27 PM

and I thought I was the only person in the world that was seeing this thing to the right of the NHC's track. I've been seeing it since I woke up at 4:00....a slowdown and a more northerly component...

a coupla models had it heading in this direction...all the way to Mobile/Pensacola.

two things to consider:
if it explodes to a cat 3 or larger...and it sure looks like it's only a matter of time.....it will get more POLAR...in it's tendencies....

and the high might not be strong enough to push it west. Dr. Lyons thought that the stronger it got...the more to the right of the CONE it would go....

it sure looks like a Louisiana and even more right of that event. I am NOT understanding why the NHC is so SLOW to respond to changing their cone. maybe big pressure on them right now...since obviously huge evactuations and money are involved...and the last thing they need is confusion.

I am seeing a huge shift from the supposed path....huge.....


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Colleen A.]
      #84814 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:30 PM

Hurricane Watch:
Port Mansfield to Cameron
TS Warnings Mouth MS to Cameron
Cat 4 at 48 hours. 115 kts gusting to 140 kts

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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doug
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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84815 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:36 PM

Yes I see that trough and that was forecast too wasn't it. I note it has some depth, with a little push down over Alabama and Georgia.
But what of the high in the W GOM? Won't that necessarily force IKE to follow the western edge of the high that has directed it so far? What of the timing on this? Will IKE slow down further?
Things may be changing I think.

--------------------
doug


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charlottefl
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Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: HCW]
      #84816 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:37 PM

If you look at the CIMSS steering maps Ike is sandwiched between the Atlantic High, and the Ridge over the Western Gulf. With a weakness between the two. Until one builds, or weakens, or the two merge Ike is going to continue to meander around about where he's been.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: doug]
      #84818 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:13 PM

From the 5pm:

"THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE."

Doesn't mention anything about motion, which is barely moving right now.


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