MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ike in the Gulf, Middle/Upper Texas Coast in the Path
Mon Sep 08 2008 07:58 AM
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September 10th 11 AM Update
Ike is slowly strengthening, and generally moving west northwest.
The track has not changed much from last night. Ike is now a large storm, hurricane force winds extend 80 miles out from the center.
September 9th 6 PM Update
Hurricane Ike has finally exited Cuba and is in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The cone has certainly shown its use today, as models this morning were trending south, now they are trending a bit north, and along with them the long term Forecast. This puts the greater risk to the central and northern Texas coasts this evening.
Intensity wise it appears Ike's core is intact enough to allow for strengthening, and it likely will as it enters the warm Gulf, as it nears the western Gulf, however, shear is expected to increase, which would cap how strong Ike gets. Ike has a chance to go over one warm eddy, and that's when I'd look for any rapid strengthening.
The track as it stands tonight (it will likely change again) takes it inland between Corpus Christi and Galveston, sear San Antonio bay. The cone, however reaches into Mexico and north toward Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center notes that some of the dynamic models are north of the current NHC track, and depending on the trends could move a little more in that direction later.
By tomorrow things should start to gel and a general landfall area will become more clear. Areas to just to the north and east of the system's landfall location would see the worst storm surge, and areas where the eyewall impacts would see the worst winds from Ike. Ike is currently forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane upon landfall, but it could be stronger or weaker depending on how much shear affects it later in its lifetime.
Those in the 3 day cone (solid white) should pay attention to local media and officials along with local weather statements for more information.
There is about a 15-20% chance that Ike will become a Category 4 storm again. Watches, warnings or beginnings of Evacuations may be done in certain areas along the Texas coast as early as tomorrow afternoon or Thursday, stay tuned to local sources for more information. Ike is turning into a large storm, and winds will affect a good area of coastline. If you are in the solid white cone of Ike, especially on the right hand side, I would start to prepare and plan tomorrow.
It is currently traveling West Northwest
September 9th 6 AM Update
Hurricane Ike, containing a small eye, is weaker this morning, but still maintains a decent pressure, and is offshore south of Cuba, moving generally westward. It still has not moved into the Gulf, and may make landfall in Cuba near where Gustav made landfall there before. It's generally heading westward, the cone now only includes Central Mexico north to around Galveston/Houston in Texas. With the most likely area north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi.
Model projections move it further west, so it could be closer toward the Texas Mexico border or in Mexico, but this is still too early to tell. It does appear that points east are much less likely to see anything at all from Ike, even the Keys were not affected much because Ike stayed generally south of Cuba.
Outside of Ike, there really isn't anything else going on now. Josephine's remnants have for the most part dissipated, and none of the waves off Africa did much, so it looks like there may be a short break for a few days outside of Ike.
Original Update
Hurricane Ike made lanfall in the Las Tunas Province of Cuba overnight and has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane because of land interaction. it is expected to continue moving westward today through Cuba and most likely will stay over land the entire trek, eventually entering the Gulf south and west of Havana. It is forecast to weaken all the way to a Tropical Storm. The storm has moved a little south this morning, so the forecast track may be off some. This may allow it back over the waters of the Caribbean for a bit.
Once back in the Gulf, restrengthening will be determined by just how much Ike was disrupted. The track is expected to move then more northwestward and enter the Central Gulf, beyond three days it's just too soon to tell. Until Ike has cleared Cuba a bit, the entire Gulf Coast, from Mexico to the Florida Panhandle will need to watch Ike. Current guidance trends put Northeast Texas and Louisiana with the highest probability of Ike getting near, but it is mich too soon to tell with any confidence.
Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)
Texas Emergency Management Reports
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX
Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|hgx|Houston/Galveston, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Corpus Christi Caller-Times
Color Sat of Gulf (Animation)
Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach
{{StormCarib}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Ike|09|9|2008|4|Ike}}
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