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95L getting better organized today, Recon scheduled for tomorrow. Cuba, S. Fla and the Keys should watch. Epsilon moving away.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Delta) , Major: 58 (Laura) Florida - Any: 744 (Michael) Major: 744 (Michael)
36.9N 62.0W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nne at 12 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49698 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:57 PM

From the 5PM
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

I guess they figured out that its not gonig there.


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naples
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: appears to have jogged and stalled... [Re: Clark]
      #49699 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:11 PM

Clark, with the path shifted a little. It definitely takes it down alligator alley and right into Naples. What kind of winds do you think we should expect here. It seems to me that what the local television stations are down playing what type of winds we could get.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49700 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:13 PM

The initial motion estimate is 265/5. 12Z and 18Z upper-air data
indicate the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina has changed
little while an inverted mid- to upper-level trough has developed
northward from the Caribbean Sea to Katrina. The trough is expected
to induce a slight south of due west motion for the next 12 hours
or so.

There is the little south motion but not enough to get it out over the gulf in less then 24 hours.

Funny how they like the gdfl and NOGAPS but they want to stay right of the models.

Guess they will wait and see what the GFS which to me has been all over the map what it does i guess we should go by since that is the one they are using


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
High Pressure System [Re: Clark]
      #49701 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:15 PM

On the other thread, Rabbit (I think it was Rabbit) said that the high coming down from Texas would turn clockwise, thus pushing the storm more to the west than the north. This does not make sense to me. Wouldn't it push the storm more EASTWARD?
Maybe the models are not picking up on the strength of the high (surprise!) or the high is not going to be as strong as we thought.
I guess it all depends on what happens with Katrina once she makes landfall and how long it takes her to cross the state.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49702 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:16 PM

according to the vortex message, Katrina had 88.5 winds in the SE Quad at 2011z but flight level was at 74kts

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49703 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:17 PM

Looks like the Eye Wall is relocating more to the s/e of last position?

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Bruce]
      #49704 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:23 PM

URNT11 KWBC 252105
97779 21054 50277 82500 04500 03024 28221 /0008 40310
RMK NOAA3 0612A Katrina OB 28 KWBC
LAST REPORT

noaa recon gone but
AF305 in system now....

URNT11 KNHC 252123
97779 21204 50270 86600 73200 10015 66861 /5765
RMK AF305 0912A Katrina OB 04

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 05:27 PM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Bruce]
      #49705 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:26 PM

Quote:

Looks like the Eye Wall is relocating more to the s/e of last position?




I think I know what you are seeing, and you may be right. Look at this last few images of this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

You can see the center along with some very high cloud tops twitching to the SE. This, if it continues for any length of time, could be an interesting development. As the storm would eventually begin moving more westerly with time, it would go over a more narrow portion of the state. This would allow for a little less weakening than is currently projected.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Eyewall [Re: Bruce]
      #49706 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:28 PM

I can't see that...I think it is close to making landfall, and I don't think it's done so yet. The latest I heard was somewhere in between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale and that was from TWC. I would really like to know the timing of the H coming out of Texas and how it will influence Katrina's 2nd landfall. I also wonder if she will slow down at all...although 6mph isn't exactly speeding ticket material.
Like our weather forecasters just said, we're in a holding pattern (Tampa) for the next 24 hours.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49708 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:31 PM

According to Brian Norcross on CBS 4, there is now a tornado warning for a portion of the Keys (Big Pine Key area). Also reported that a 66 mph gust was reported at Ft Laud. Int. Airport.

Here's a link to those interested in watching. http://cbs4.com/

With the current movement, perhaps the GFDL prediction could verify. I concur both with the appearance of the eye relocation (almost appeared to "bounce off" the coast) and a "holding pattern" Tampa.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Thu Aug 25 2005 05:36 PM)


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Eyewall [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49713 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:37 PM

I think it is also to close to land to fully develope. It was recorded from recon to have a Porrly Defined Eye but anything could happen. As far as land fall the NHC I think will be pretty much on with alittle north of Ft lauderdale, most likly Pompano.

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dearolecleo
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Ellenton, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49714 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:37 PM

Can you tell me what the BAMM and BAM? computer models are and are they in anyway reliable? :?:

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49715 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:39 PM

Hey guys,
Katrina could have gotten stronger if only that dry air hadnt intruded into the circulation. Visible imagery shows a well defined CDO over the centre right now. This would correspond to the recent pressure falls reported by recon, and also go some way to explaining the improvement of the inner core noted on radar - particularly the formation of a well defined eyewall - especially to the eastern side of the eye. Dont expect particularly rapid weakening with the system once the centre is overland. The terrain is hardly the type likely to rip her apart. The circulation is already spreading over the offshore waters off the southwest FL coast, and will help to continue to feed convective bands into the storm. What may happen could be for the inner core to slacken, and the general wind field to expand. This may actually slow the restrengthening over the GOM if this happens, but of course this is by no means certain.

On a side note, looks like we will have TD13 sometime within the next day or so if the latest TWO is anything to go by. The NHC suggest the low / wave 1000 miles east of the islands could become a TD at anytime, so expect classification at either 0300z or 0900z. And also the area of disturbed weather to the SE of the Bahamas bears watching, with some evidence of a mid-level circulation - although this doesnt appear to be reflected at the surface yet.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: dearolecleo]
      #49716 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:40 PM

conditions in Miami Beach are extremely poor. A Miami Herald newspaper machine was picked up and thrown down the street, trees are beginning to snap and power lines are going down as well. I think most people really didn't take the threat seriously, and the storm continuous to intensify, or at least it feels like it is....

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Kevin]
      #49717 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:41 PM

Okay, now I see it...definitely looks like it's almost determined not to make landfall, LOL! We'll have to see if that continues...another wrench thrown into the pile. Ugh.

Denis Phillips reminded us of all the "flip flops" that Charley did as far as model runs. I also think the NWS = Tampa is trying to remind everyone that this is not over for Tampa by any means.
Time will tell. Just think, by this time tomorrow night, we'll know.
I hope.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49718 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:44 PM



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Bruce]
      #49719 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:45 PM

Quote:

Looks like the Eye Wall is relocating more to the s/e of last position?




Looks like motion is nearly stationary the last hour with maybe a hint of southwest drift. The convection is wrapping around an "eye-like" center. Appears to still be strengthening. Anyone have any recent obs from the Miami-Ft Laud area?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
RJB


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49720 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:47 PM

The last frame of the IR loop looks like she has either wobbled or is heading more southwest now. What was the one model that predicted extreme south Florida/Keys? Was that GFDL?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Eyewall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49721 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:49 PM

Looking at the radar on local news, it looks as though Miami may be the area of landfall; it's just south of Ft. Lauderdale and it's still offshore. Looks pretty healthy to me, also. Weird storm.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: LI Phil]
      #49722 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:52 PM

Am I crazy or does it look like it was about to make landfall, then slid to the south? Looks like the western side of the eyewall closed up!
Ok...I'll go make dinner. Then I'll come back and look at it again. Sheesh.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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