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#HurricaneEpsilon continues rapidly intensifying and may easily become a Major today. Bermuda should watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Delta) , Major: 55 (Laura) Florida - Any: 742 (Michael) Major: 742 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line
      #49672 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:21 PM

11PM
Katrina remains a hurricane, and is now over the Florida Everglades. The current forecast track takes it a little more toward the west and southwest and out into the gulf early tomorrow morning, and then eventually turning north and toward the Florida pnahandle. The cone of error puts it close to the west coast as well, so some rain may be felt for the next few days.


(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)

It's moved a bit quicker across the state that the earlier forecasts suggested, and further south and west. This will enable the storm to be out over the Gulf quicker, and although the Everglades can't sustain a storm, it can keep it from weakening as rapidly as it would over dry land. That seems to be happening with Katrina. If the core holds together until it returns into the Gulf it could reach major hurricane status when it moves back over the water. In fact, even some of the usually more conservative models bring it to major hurricane status when it is back into the Gulf.

Katrina has been one of the more interesting storms to track in quite a while, and probably will remain so over the next few days as attention turns toward the Panhandle and northern Gulf coast.

See more detailed discussions below in the Blogs from Clark, etc.

9PM Update
Katrina remains a hurricane at 9PM, it's center is very close to the National Hurricane Center office, and continues on it's west to west southwest motion.

Power is out across the area, including in Metro Miami.

8PM Update
Strong Tropical Storm/Minimal Hurricane Conditions were felt along the landfall area, including a 90mph wind recording in Miami. One confirmed fatality has occurred on the roads of the area with another unconfirmed fatality being reported so far. The storm is enough inland to start weakening now, and it's showing some signs of that.

Beyond tonight, it may slide a bit more west southwest and emerge back in the Gulf around Naples. After that, it has a pretty good shot at restrengthening and probably bending back toward the Panhandle or Northwestern Florida. The current track would suggest near Apalachicola. It will take some time for Katrina to cross the state. Sometime late tomorrow. We'll be watching it all night. Let us know if you are in the affected areas in the Situation Report topic.

7PM Update
Hurricane Katrina has made official landfall between North Miami Beach and Hallendale as an 80MPH Category 1 hurricane.
11PM Update

6PM Update



This radar image live


The center of Katrina is still just offshore, and amazingly seems to be drifting a bit to the south or stalling, still increasing in strength. This is very interesting situation developing here. Wobbles you usually ignore, but when the center is within 20 miles of land, it's a bit different.



It appears to still be strengthening and slowing even more.

More updates to come soon.

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will be doing his live audio show likely tomorrow as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here

Ross from Suncam.tv is streaming video and webcams from the landfall area

Marc Sudduth will likely also be in the area see his live streaming video and audio here

Reply and let us know of other links.

Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emergency Management/County info
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Bahamas Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Invest 97L


NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L

Edited by MikeC (Sun Sep 18 2005 11:33 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49675 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:25 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

New 18Z runs are out


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49676 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:25 PM

Greetings from Ft. Lauderdale! Does anyone think this will push a higher Category than a 1? Looks like the dry air might save the day down here...things sure are picking up though....sparks on powerlines in my neihborhood....

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #49677 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:27 PM

i dont see it as it is way too close to land to get to Cat 2 but you can't say 100% but unlikely.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #49678 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:30 PM

Notice how these models are shifting to the West now more toward Mobile. Here we go again. Ivan, Dennis. Now Katrina. Why am I not surprised. It's Hurricane Alley here these days in the Mobile/Pensacola region.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: SirCane]
      #49681 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:34 PM

One model has it going like Charley, sort of. Not even making it to the gulf. How is this possible?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
MM5FSU [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #49682 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:35 PM

The MM5fsu model plots are interesting. They have Katrina going over south florida then riding the west coast of florida thn crossing florida again and exiting by the FL/GA border line. Then if you look at the 120 hours on the FSU models they have invest 97L developing being justt east of Bermuda, then there is a system in its path right between the lesser antilles and the cape verde islands and a little northward, AND a system coming of the African coast. At 120 hours they all look to have a pressure of 1000-1008. Should Be interesting once we are finally done with Katrina wether that man another eastern turn back over florida, or Pensacola-Mobile-Gulfport 2nd landfall.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: SirCane]
      #49683 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:35 PM

Don't get down yet...it's just one set of model runs and things can and do change with these storms. As noted before, however, slow variations in forward motion are going to result in pretty big deviations in the track. The trough appears to be well-forecast in terms of when, where, and how strong, leading to the forecast largely becoming one of timing (IMO). Note that unless Katrina gets really strong, it'll have a natural tendency as a larger storm to move further nortward than perhaps expected...not a lot, of course, but something to consider if anyone thinks the storm will become a strong/major hurricane.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #49684 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:35 PM

Maybe a old model but i see none right now that show that1 The same line as always LINK! would help.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 04:36 PM)


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: ralphfl]
      #49685 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:38 PM

look at the model at the beginning of this thread. There is one track showing that.

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49686 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:38 PM

Clark when is it going to have time to get that? its about to hit land for over a day then when out over the gulf by the time it gets to cat 2 or whatever it will be way north or west already no?

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #49687 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:39 PM

that was a old run from early today.None of the latest models have that in it.Does not mean it cant but none are showing that right now.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: ralphfl]
      #49688 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:41 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.marine.html

5PM coming out At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
the Florida West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key. A
tropical storm watch remains in effect for the east-central Florida
coast from north of Vero Beach to Titusville... including all of
Merritt Island. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within
36 hours.

Hurricane center located near 26.1n 79.9w at 25/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm


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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49689 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:42 PM

When exactly is it "legally" considered to "make landfall"? Because it sure looks like the western side of the eye wall is on land at this time.

--------------------
Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: ralphfl]
      #49690 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:43 PM

present movement toward the west or 265 degrees at 5 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 985 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: ralphfl]
      #49691 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:45 PM

the new track is a little more west but not much only out to 85 west which is about .5 more then the last which was out to 84.5 so they did not change much but did speed it up some.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Katrina's Got A Thing For The Cities [Re: ralphfl]
      #49692 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:47 PM

it seems as if Katrina wants to stop at the cities if shes in town..cities like Ft. Lauderdale, Ft. Meyers, and the if she follows Skeeto's maps Tallahassee, the capital. what do peopel think of my post further up the board about MM5FSU.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
appears to have jogged and stalled... [Re: Ryan]
      #49693 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:50 PM

and it wouldn't suprise me if she heads a little due south of west. Interestingly, if she stays a bit more south...and exits south of Everglades City...she escapes more land than if north....

which would lead to less weakening, etc...

models should punch somewhat left now....


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: ralphfl]
      #49696 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:54 PM

URNT10 KNHC 252036
97779 20304 50253 82700 73200 04024 65701 /5761
RMK AF300 WXWXA 05082520300 OB 01


this plane flew all the way to south fla... and then had computer problems and had to abort at midnight.... looks like they are on a trainning mission....testing equipment near mobile right now.....gettting ready for late friday night? Katrina should be in GOM by then

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: appears to have jogged and stalled... [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #49697 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:56 PM

Rick, if that happens further, then perhaps. But, they've already got the westward motion at a slightly faster speed into their output and have already shifted somewhat west. It still should slow down over Florida -- it is entering a col region and about the only thing moving it right now is inertial momentum and reorganization wobbles -- but given the slightly faster track, the NHC decided to shift the 5p track a bit further to the left. We'll see if this is a trend or not; given the wishy-washy tendency of the models, chances are that it might not be.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49698 - Thu Aug 25 2005 04:57 PM

From the 5PM
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

I guess they figured out that its not gonig there.


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naples
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: appears to have jogged and stalled... [Re: Clark]
      #49699 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:11 PM

Clark, with the path shifted a little. It definitely takes it down alligator alley and right into Naples. What kind of winds do you think we should expect here. It seems to me that what the local television stations are down playing what type of winds we could get.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49700 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:13 PM

The initial motion estimate is 265/5. 12Z and 18Z upper-air data
indicate the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina has changed
little while an inverted mid- to upper-level trough has developed
northward from the Caribbean Sea to Katrina. The trough is expected
to induce a slight south of due west motion for the next 12 hours
or so.

There is the little south motion but not enough to get it out over the gulf in less then 24 hours.

Funny how they like the gdfl and NOGAPS but they want to stay right of the models.

Guess they will wait and see what the GFS which to me has been all over the map what it does i guess we should go by since that is the one they are using


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
High Pressure System [Re: Clark]
      #49701 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:15 PM

On the other thread, Rabbit (I think it was Rabbit) said that the high coming down from Texas would turn clockwise, thus pushing the storm more to the west than the north. This does not make sense to me. Wouldn't it push the storm more EASTWARD?
Maybe the models are not picking up on the strength of the high (surprise!) or the high is not going to be as strong as we thought.
I guess it all depends on what happens with Katrina once she makes landfall and how long it takes her to cross the state.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49702 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:16 PM

according to the vortex message, Katrina had 88.5 winds in the SE Quad at 2011z but flight level was at 74kts

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49703 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:17 PM

Looks like the Eye Wall is relocating more to the s/e of last position?

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Bruce]
      #49704 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:23 PM

URNT11 KWBC 252105
97779 21054 50277 82500 04500 03024 28221 /0008 40310
RMK NOAA3 0612A Katrina OB 28 KWBC
LAST REPORT

noaa recon gone but
AF305 in system now....

URNT11 KNHC 252123
97779 21204 50270 86600 73200 10015 66861 /5765
RMK AF305 0912A Katrina OB 04

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 05:27 PM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Bruce]
      #49705 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:26 PM

Quote:

Looks like the Eye Wall is relocating more to the s/e of last position?




I think I know what you are seeing, and you may be right. Look at this last few images of this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

You can see the center along with some very high cloud tops twitching to the SE. This, if it continues for any length of time, could be an interesting development. As the storm would eventually begin moving more westerly with time, it would go over a more narrow portion of the state. This would allow for a little less weakening than is currently projected.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Eyewall [Re: Bruce]
      #49706 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:28 PM

I can't see that...I think it is close to making landfall, and I don't think it's done so yet. The latest I heard was somewhere in between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale and that was from TWC. I would really like to know the timing of the H coming out of Texas and how it will influence Katrina's 2nd landfall. I also wonder if she will slow down at all...although 6mph isn't exactly speeding ticket material.
Like our weather forecasters just said, we're in a holding pattern (Tampa) for the next 24 hours.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49708 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:31 PM

According to Brian Norcross on CBS 4, there is now a tornado warning for a portion of the Keys (Big Pine Key area). Also reported that a 66 mph gust was reported at Ft Laud. Int. Airport.

Here's a link to those interested in watching. http://cbs4.com/

With the current movement, perhaps the GFDL prediction could verify. I concur both with the appearance of the eye relocation (almost appeared to "bounce off" the coast) and a "holding pattern" Tampa.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Thu Aug 25 2005 05:36 PM)


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Eyewall [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49713 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:37 PM

I think it is also to close to land to fully develope. It was recorded from recon to have a Porrly Defined Eye but anything could happen. As far as land fall the NHC I think will be pretty much on with alittle north of Ft lauderdale, most likly Pompano.

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dearolecleo
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Ellenton, Florida
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49714 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:37 PM

Can you tell me what the BAMM and BAM? computer models are and are they in anyway reliable? :?:

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49715 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:39 PM

Hey guys,
Katrina could have gotten stronger if only that dry air hadnt intruded into the circulation. Visible imagery shows a well defined CDO over the centre right now. This would correspond to the recent pressure falls reported by recon, and also go some way to explaining the improvement of the inner core noted on radar - particularly the formation of a well defined eyewall - especially to the eastern side of the eye. Dont expect particularly rapid weakening with the system once the centre is overland. The terrain is hardly the type likely to rip her apart. The circulation is already spreading over the offshore waters off the southwest FL coast, and will help to continue to feed convective bands into the storm. What may happen could be for the inner core to slacken, and the general wind field to expand. This may actually slow the restrengthening over the GOM if this happens, but of course this is by no means certain.

On a side note, looks like we will have TD13 sometime within the next day or so if the latest TWO is anything to go by. The NHC suggest the low / wave 1000 miles east of the islands could become a TD at anytime, so expect classification at either 0300z or 0900z. And also the area of disturbed weather to the SE of the Bahamas bears watching, with some evidence of a mid-level circulation - although this doesnt appear to be reflected at the surface yet.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: dearolecleo]
      #49716 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:40 PM

conditions in Miami Beach are extremely poor. A Miami Herald newspaper machine was picked up and thrown down the street, trees are beginning to snap and power lines are going down as well. I think most people really didn't take the threat seriously, and the storm continuous to intensify, or at least it feels like it is....

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Kevin]
      #49717 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:41 PM

Okay, now I see it...definitely looks like it's almost determined not to make landfall, LOL! We'll have to see if that continues...another wrench thrown into the pile. Ugh.

Denis Phillips reminded us of all the "flip flops" that Charley did as far as model runs. I also think the NWS = Tampa is trying to remind everyone that this is not over for Tampa by any means.
Time will tell. Just think, by this time tomorrow night, we'll know.
I hope.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49718 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:44 PM



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Bruce]
      #49719 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:45 PM

Quote:

Looks like the Eye Wall is relocating more to the s/e of last position?




Looks like motion is nearly stationary the last hour with maybe a hint of southwest drift. The convection is wrapping around an "eye-like" center. Appears to still be strengthening. Anyone have any recent obs from the Miami-Ft Laud area?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

--------------------
RJB


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: High Pressure System [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49720 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:47 PM

The last frame of the IR loop looks like she has either wobbled or is heading more southwest now. What was the one model that predicted extreme south Florida/Keys? Was that GFDL?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Eyewall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49721 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:49 PM

Looking at the radar on local news, it looks as though Miami may be the area of landfall; it's just south of Ft. Lauderdale and it's still offshore. Looks pretty healthy to me, also. Weird storm.

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Colleen A.
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: LI Phil]
      #49722 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:52 PM

Am I crazy or does it look like it was about to make landfall, then slid to the south? Looks like the western side of the eyewall closed up!
Ok...I'll go make dinner. Then I'll come back and look at it again. Sheesh.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Big Kahuna
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Re: Eyewall [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49723 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:54 PM

At 5 Pm NHC had it 15 miles ENE of Ft. Lauderdale and 25 miles SSE of Boca Raton ? Miami would be in the wrong direction

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Storm Hunter
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49725 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:57 PM

strongest radar vel. i see are 71kts just off of miami..at 1425ft and above fort. laud. at 2000ft....max out on radar but are close to ground....i think landfall will be official around next 15 mins or so...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Frank P
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49726 - Thu Aug 25 2005 05:58 PM

looks like its moving perhaps just south of due west... nice center showing up in the latest radar loops.. Keys would NOT want the GFDL solution to play out.... radar presentation looks so cool... you don't see this picture every day...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml


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lunkerhunter
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49727 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:01 PM

anyone have real-time surface wind data from reporting land stations?

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Margie
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Re: Eyewall [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49728 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:04 PM

Quote:

Looking at the radar on local news, it looks as though Miami may be the area of landfall; it's just south of Ft. Lauderdale and it's still offshore. Looks pretty healthy to me, also. Weird storm.




I totally agree. I think even maybe a hair south of Miami, just skimming the lower part of the FLA peninsula, coming out south of Everglades City, and still a lot of warm water feeding it from the south the entire trip over the peninsula.

Whoever pegged the baro at 980-985 earlier, got it almost on the nose.

So...this one is definitely going to make landfall before midnight.

I think the divergence in the models in the GOM is interesting and 2-3 days from now we're all going to be glued to flhurricane.com!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Eyewall [Re: Margie]
      #49729 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:07 PM




miami landfall?
nah!


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Storm Hunter
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #49731 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:09 PM

base ref. tilt 1 radar look

will add storm rel velocity soon...and . base velocity ..

doppler rainfall estimates: scale on left

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 06:16 PM)


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hurricane expert
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Clark]
      #49732 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:10 PM

Looking straight into the eye of the storm if u look closely it has know wobble alittle bit to the NW. Dont know if u guys see that but take a look at the radar movement.

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Margie
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Re: Eyewall [Re: Margie]
      #49733 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:11 PM

Just reviewed some of the other posts...well if it is not moving south, there is certainly a huge shift in the convection to the south over the last couple hours.

Guess since that smaller eyewall just couldn't get wrapped around the W, it all opened up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dolfinatic
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49734 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:14 PM

I am seeing the same thing. It appears to be wobbling back toward the northwest, maybe wnw. The center looks alot better also. I wonder what the intensity is right now. It appears to continue to strengthen even though part of the eye is ashore. Mets what do you think about this? Also does this mean a slower trek across the state with the numerous and erractic wobbles?

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Ron Basso
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49735 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:18 PM

380,000 w/o power in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties now

--------------------
RJB


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Random Chaos
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49736 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:19 PM

Something about that eye looks strange on radar. The eye was much smaller and further east on radar an hour ago. Then it seemed to "grow" over the coast while the eastern edge stayed in the same place.

I'm wondering if what we are seeing is another dry air intrusion to the west of the real eye, obscuring the eyewall on radar and making it appear further west than it really is.


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Big Kahuna
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49737 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:20 PM

NHC had a 6pm posistion estimate but when I opened it up its at 4PM ????

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Big Kahuna
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49738 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:21 PM

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE Katrina WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST...OR ABOUT
10 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49739 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:27 PM

Quote:

NHC had a 6pm posistion estimate but when I opened it up its at 4PM ????




Your browser's cache didn't realize the page updated.

Hold down SHIFT and click RELOAD. This works in both IE and Firefox/Mozilla/Netscape


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HanKFranK
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landfall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49741 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:42 PM

hollywood, then.. at about 6:25 pm. missed the landfall point by 25 miles, and a day early.. eh, coulda done better. the inner core definition really improved this afternoon, so it's good that Katrina is going ashore. had it come in later tonight it would have been significantly stronger. the eye should fill back up overnight. its going to rain like hell in south florida for much of the next 24 hours.. the wind should be pesky but not cause much structural damage. maybe this time tomorrow Katrina will be moving back offshore near marco island or chokoloskee as a mid-range tropical storm. it will probably take 12-24 hrs for the inner core to spin back up, so by late saturday the storm should get back to hurricane. it still looks like a monday landfall.. in the panhandle. earlier progged the al/ms border area, but even though some guidance has lingered there or shifted back, i think clark had the general location right. the models taking Katrina in near cedar key/apalachee bay are blowing up a spurious low off the east coast.
the canadian and euro are both showing a major hurricane at landfall. that was my initial though.. now seeing two globals putting it into the panhandle on monday have my blood up. i expect the NHC intensity forecast to continue slowly rising.. my range is cat 3. higher isn't out of the question, but anything higher than cat 3 is sufficiently rare that i'm hesitant to go there.
97L is still being called 97L. the center here/convection there problem is partially remedied in that some weak convection is blowing up near the center, and the main inflow band to the south has drawn closer in. the t-rating is too weak, but that's just based on the cloud signature.... there are likely 30-35 kt winds associated with the system. like i said last night, it may never be classified as a tropical cyclone since the NHC likes to ignore sheared fish spinner type systems.
the inverted trough south of Katrina will have to be watched for whatever piles up around it.. the disturbance to the east is a can of corn with all that convection but not even a surface trough apparent. wave behind 97L still shown to develop on some plots.. and the one behind it on others. that's for another day.
HF 2242z25august


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nl
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49742 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:43 PM

what is all that crap se of Katrina its a mess. and where is Katrina heading after this? is there anything else gonna sneak up on us?

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Margie
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Re: Katrina A Hurricane, Nears Landfall [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49743 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:46 PM

Thanks for the good browser refresh tip.

OK if you look at the Miami experimental radar loop, the last three frames, you will see a bit of reforming in the original area that was the tiny eye area where the wall tried to wrap around and got almost due west before it opened up again. It does not show up as the clear area, but is to the right of the clear area.

I don't think the larger clear area is actually the center, but the center is still a much smaller area to the E of it.

I still think it is possible to see drift as far south as Miami before landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Big Kahuna
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Re: landfall [Re: HanKFranK]
      #49744 - Thu Aug 25 2005 06:50 PM

Kind of strange how she tracked at 26.2N all day then at 5pm dropped .1N to make land fall change that much so close to shore. Just goes to show I guess Its not over till its over, and Katrina isnt over yet.

Hollywood....well I guess Katrina's A Star now...

Edited by Big Kahuna (Thu Aug 25 2005 06:53 PM)


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Margie
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Re: landfall [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #49746 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:06 PM

OK so landfall right at the cty line about 15 mi to the N of where I thought...but as that dry area filled in you can clearly see it was not a large eye, the real eye is now very discernable as you can see rotation around a very small area just barely offshore.

Still looks like some continued southward movement or drift.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 07:11 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: landfall [Re: Margie]
      #49748 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:19 PM

URNT12 KNHC 252310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/22:58:40Z
B. 25 deg 52 min N
080 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 65 kt
E. 8 deg 015 nm
F. 116 deg 063 kt
G. 009 deg 013 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 13 C/ 3044 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 0912A Katrina OB 11
MAX FL WIND 63 KT NE QUAD 22:54:40 Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49749 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:22 PM

Colleen -- Ridge in Texas would result in a trough to the east, wanting to help turn it more towards the north. The ridge is not projected to build in back towards the east; instead, a trough is projected to move across the northern US and grab the storm.

To the person asking about what Naples may see: likely winds to 50mph, but largely a lot of rain. Isolated severe storms/tornadoes, but the biggest threat will likely be 8-12" of rain.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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nl
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Re: landfall [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49750 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:23 PM

lost hurricane city again. so what does the effect do on Katrina moving sw. whats gonna happen now? and what is all that mess behind her south?

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Clark
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Re: landfall [Re: nl]
      #49751 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:28 PM

Katrina is going to wobble across the state in a general westward motion with the occasional southward drop. It's inland now and will remain that way; theoretically, if it wobbles southwest and then back northwest as it nears the west coast as some of the guidance suggests, it could stay over land for a longer period of time than expected...albeit that's a matter of just a couple of hours. The short-term track will have little impact on the second landfall location; it's still a timing issue.

Note that the inner-core wind field of the storm will not weaken all that much over the Everglades, very wet and very warm right now, but that the strongest winds with this storm for the next day or so will be located along the east coast & over open waters. This is a scenario similar to Frances last year. Frances took about a day to cross the state; given a slower motion here but less land to cross, a similar evolution seems likely with this one.

For more, see HF's update above.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Big Red Machine
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Re: landfall [Re: nl]
      #49752 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:29 PM

Max Mayfield was just on CBS in Miami, he expects a second landfall in the Florida Panhandle, "the northwest Florida peninsula" area. Obviously he didn't buy (nor did I for that matter) the 18Z runs that went westward.

A little bit ago Jim Cantore said this was the strongest cat 1 he'd ever been in. He ought to know.

Also, sad to note that two deaths have been reported in the Miami area.

95 mph wind gust on Virginia Key .

edit: *Latest GFDL is now in line with NHC track.*
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Interesting. With both GFS and GFDL back towards the east of the other guidance, NHC track still looks dead on.


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nl
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Re: landfall [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49754 - Thu Aug 25 2005 07:50 PM

so what is that mess se of Katrina? it looks bad.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49755 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:03 PM

The new GFDL model has shifted big time to the right know it takes it to the florida panhandle

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Katie
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49756 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:10 PM

Well, don't really know why but we lost our power for about an hour and TECO said it was weather related. The winds are up but...in my opinion not enough to knock out power. We are back up though. Not even raining right now. Just some good strong gusts every now and then.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49757 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:11 PM

Amazing about the GFDL. I do see a soutward vector on this storm now.

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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Katie]
      #49759 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:23 PM

TECO is just getting you guys ready for the next hurricane. My buddy in Ft Lauderdale is sitting without his power. Considering how slow the system is moving, I am guessing some folks are in for a long outage until the trucks can come in.

--------------------
Jim


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Margie
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49760 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:24 PM

Quote:

Amazing about the GFDL. I do see a soutward vector on this storm now.



Yup you can see it very well comparing the sat images on the beg and end of the loop. IMHO the center is not the open area...the center is just due W of Miami right now and is clouded over.

Edit: Eye just cleared a bit at 00:12Z, now a little easier to see. The radar is a little bit behind...wind in Miami already coming out of the SE, not the SW (as would be the case if the eye moved directly W after landfall).

Looks like dir since landfall has continued SW 225-230 deg. At this rate if she doesn't bear more W soon she'll move right over the everglades and exit NW of the keys at the entrance to Big Lostmans Bay.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:42 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: Clark]
      #49761 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:29 PM

Thanks, Clark...so the trough that would grab the storm: it all depends on the timing of the trough and where Katrina is as to where landfall happens?
Thanks for answering my questions!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Margie]
      #49764 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:32 PM

Notice the blow up of cold high cloud tops on the last few frames of the IR. If this southward vector continues, she will be over the "open" waters of the warm everglades. she will weaken, but I wonder how much.

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Clark
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Re: High Pressure System [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49765 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:38 PM

Colleen -- yep, pretty much. Essentially, the faster it goes now, the further west it ultimately gets. A motion about 5-6mph is pretty much accounted for; it should slow as it begins to turn north tomorrow or early Saturday, and then begin to move again towards the north at a fair rate of speed.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49766 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:38 PM

It's amazing how well Katrina has held together. If you look at the visible satellite loops from the last few hours, you can see the southward movement very well just before she made landfall.
I wonder what other surprises she has in store for us.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lysis
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49767 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:40 PM

I dont buy the idea that a cyclone will be able to sustain itself considerably better over the everglades. Andrew, for example, was moving at a fast clip, and still lost a good deal of strength. I would, however, be interested in comparing storms that have taken similar tracks over the home of the seminols, so to speak.

--------------------
cheers


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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49768 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:43 PM

Quote:

It's amazing how well Katrina has held together.




someone forgot to give the cane hunters the proper batch of dynagel

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49769 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:43 PM

I'm amazed by the amount/look of the convection just south of the Keys on IR4. Incredible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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danielwAdministrator
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Winds [Re: Clark]
      #49770 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:43 PM

Airports with reports in the last 30 minutes. Emding at 0033Z, 8:33 PM EDT.
Airports reporting high winds. I won't breakdown the different airports due to space.
All measurements are in knots.
BCT 37G56
EVB 20G28
FLL 37G52
HST 23G30
HWO 39G56
MIA..............PRESSURE AT 29.17" or 987.9mb !!!
PBI 24G31
PMP 39G52
SUA 20G26
TMB 37G51 0.5 MI visibility and heavy rain.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/metars/

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:46 PM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49773 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:51 PM

Computer models are starting to turn back to the right with a bend on them intersting to see what happends later on.

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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49774 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:51 PM

nature is so beautiful... on radar that is.... and its looking to be moving WSW attm or perhaps just south of due west.... keeps up the present motion and speed and doesn't slow down it gonna get into the GOM sooner than expected.... and that's not good...

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Lysis]
      #49775 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:52 PM

Andrew passed over the Everglades during a relatively dry period; it was also a very small storm, more likely to result to either favorable or negative conditions beneath the storm. Despite that, it only lost 15kt of intensity over Florida, from 130-135kt to 115-120kt. Given the moist conditions of the region right now and the larger size of Katrina as points against that and the weaker initial state of the storm as a point for it, a similar drop-off could be expected. Not saying that it is likely, and that's certainly not what is forecast right now, but anything between 35-55kt coming off-shore is not out of the realm of possibility.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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dolfinatic
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49776 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:53 PM

Is it me or has its forward motion sped up. Looks to be moving faster now. Anyone else see this?

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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49777 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:54 PM

oh how I remembered the models all over the place last year with Ivan prior to passing over Cuba.... it was like a tennis match... this could be very similar.... might be another 24 hours or so before the models get consistent from run to run, of which some have not.... then again maybe they won't ... who knows....

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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49778 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:55 PM

Yes, isn't that amazing?? Has Katrina come all the way inland? On the Miami radar it looks like she has; on this one, it's hard to tell. I can't tell if that black area is the center or what.


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Margie
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49779 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:57 PM

OK so now I'm reading speed increasing and movement more due W.

Still seeing convection migrating to the S portion of the storm.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:58 PM)


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LI Phil
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katrina on wv [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49780 - Thu Aug 25 2005 08:58 PM

Quote:

I can't tell if that black area is the center or what.





use the wv loop and then click the "radar" box and you'll see exactly where the coc is...

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AudreyE
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49781 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:00 PM

I've been lurking here since last season - just another completely unknowledgable FL resident who uses these discussions to keep on top of potential threats - and, I apologize if this is not the correct forum for posting this, but I am hoping someone can give me the most likely scenario for the Orlando area from Sunday morning through Monday night. I live in Ocala, and I'm scheduled to attend a convention there on Sunday and Monday.

Thank you,
Audrey


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49782 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:02 PM

Looks like the eyewall is fully ashore but most of the convection may not even touch land if you go by the satelitte images.

Since I'm not a Pro-Met, I'll put it this way... It looks like it's moving pretty fast across land and will still have plenty of "twist an shout" left when it gets back over hot water.

That's about as plain language as it gets, Skeet.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:04 PM)


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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49783 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:03 PM

It's already 23 miles inland and on its present track has only 48 miles to traverse to get to the GOM... still looks just south of due west to me....

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Clark
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: AudreyE]
      #49784 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:04 PM

Audrey, depending upon how far off-shore Katrina goes, occasional thunderstorms & rain showers in bands trailing to the east of the storm could be possible in the Orlando area through Sunday night and early Monday morning. There's still some uncertainty in that forecast, however.

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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49785 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:06 PM

on its present speed I estimate that she could enter the GOM anytime between 1 and 2 am this morning...

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dolfinatic
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Frank P]
      #49786 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:06 PM

The 9:00 is out and they say it is still moving at 6. Still moving a little south of west. Sure looked like it was moving faster. Shows what i know lol

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Colleen A.
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: LI Phil]
      #49787 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:07 PM

Thanks, Phil! Am I nuts (don't answer that) or has it moved SW?
Oh..wait....CNN just said the COC HAS been moving to the SW. hmmmmmmm. I wonder what THAT will do to the forecast track.

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nl
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49788 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:07 PM

worst case scenario could this pull a sharp turn right ne? and do a Charley?

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danielwAdministrator
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Discussion [Re: Frank P]
      #49789 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:08 PM

I knew that Stacy Stewart wrote the latest discussion without looking at the signature. Very detailed.
Here's a part of the discussion...relevant to the movement Frank is tracking.

...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF Katrina HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO Katrina. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.


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AudreyE
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49790 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:09 PM

Quote:

Audrey, depending upon how far off-shore Katrina goes, occasional thunderstorms & rain showers in bands trailing to the east of the storm could be possible in the Orlando area through Sunday night and early Monday morning. There's still some uncertainty in that forecast, however.




Thank you, very much, Clark. At this point, is it most likely that it will be safe to make the trip, or should I be thinking carefully about cancelling?

Audrey


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Frank P
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49791 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:10 PM

I can't discern a true SW motion Colleen, more like WSW maybe, or perhaps just south of due west...

use the radar loop and zoom in.... you be the judge and can you really trust CNN... hehe

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Re: Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #49792 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:11 PM

Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:



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OrlandoDan
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: Frank P]
      #49793 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:12 PM

I would say it is moving about 230 degrees right now. The GFDL does not look so dumb now, does it?

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LI Phil
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49794 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:17 PM

someone with sharper eyes than mine do me a favor...mets included...click on the wv loop again, this time filling in the "radar" and the "Trop Fcst Pts" check boxes...tell me if you think this is way south (the COC that is) of where the tropical forecast points are indicating...cuz that's the impression i'm getting...hmmmm

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Discussion [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49795 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:17 PM

HURRICANE Katrina INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

..KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE
EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE National Hurricane Center...

Ooops, haven't we seen this before??~danielw

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Katrina WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE Katrina SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.


Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:23 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #49796 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:19 PM

Okay, Daniel...can you now put that discussion into layman's terms? I have no idea what the heck all that means.

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damejune2
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: LI Phil]
      #49798 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:20 PM

Phil - I am no met but yes, it looks as though Katrina is moving more wsw than w right now.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Jeffmidtown
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: Frank P]
      #49799 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:21 PM

Looking at the streaming of WFOR from MIA and it looks like that the eye has just passed over I-75 through Alligator Alley and it definately looks like it's moving SW and looks like it may enter the GOM between Everglades City and Neal Boortz' 2nd hometown of Naples. What would that do to the 96 hour track when it makes the second landfall?

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Frank P
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49800 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:22 PM

I don't think its going 230 degrees, maybe 260 at best... I think 265 per the NHC is about right IMO .... does look like its following the UKMET at the moment... time will tell...

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twizted sizter
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South movement [Re: LI Phil]
      #49801 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:22 PM

South movement has been mentioned by several...looks it to me as well...very obvious on the link you provided...not a met though & I'm not wearing my glasses.

Is this a little jog or a definite shift in the forecast track? If a true movement how this affect part 2 of Katrina?


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Colleen A.
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: LI Phil]
      #49802 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:22 PM

Phil, I'm getting the same impression you are..now let's see if anyone else sees it!

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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damejune2
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: damejune2]
      #49803 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:23 PM

I am wondering just how much we will feel in Bradenton, Fla - 50 miles south of Tampa. The NOAA web site for my area hasn't been updated since 2:00pm and the track of Katrina has since shifted south and west. Any ideas??

--------------------
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Steve H1
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #49804 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:23 PM

Looks like a party is starting down in south Florida. Look at the convective bands from south of the Keys connecting to the bands near the center. I believe she will lose litttle intensity, if she keeps drifting SW, since the inflow from the SW is feeding the center nicely. I'm not sure i'd by any of the forecast tracks after 36 hours. Lots going on to the north and south of the center. If she hangs around long enough she may sit in the GOM off Naples and head NNE ahead of the trough. Steering currents will be weak in the GOM, as the ULL in the central GOM heads WSW..anything is fair game once its in the GOM..

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Discussion [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49805 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:25 PM

Quote:

Okay, Daniel...can you now put that discussion into layman's terms? I have no idea what the heck all that means.




I put too much in the post. Here's the beef!
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.


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MichaelA
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: LI Phil]
      #49806 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:28 PM

Yes, the center is definitely south of the forecast consensus. I would think the 11PM advisory will reflect that. Also, with Katrina taking that more SW/WSW track, the center will be over land for a somewhat shorter time since the distance is less. Looks like entry into the GOM will be in Florida Bay. I wonder if that will mean a somewhat later recurvature than currently forecast. With SSTs rather high in the western Gulf, I would expect a somewhat rapid intensification once the center of circulation gets clear of the coast. It will be a very interesting weekend.

--------------------
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WU PWS

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hurricane expert
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49807 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:29 PM

If the trough keep heading south does it has a chance to pull a Charley?

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Storm Hunter
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #49808 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:30 PM

she is moving south some now....i would say she be back over the water (GOM) in 6-10hrs.....not good! I would also expect a shift in 10pm adv... to the left and west.... not good for folks along panhandle.... outer eyewall now over NHC/nws center..... center just to the wnw of their office....also i am see some signs of rotation in the feeder band fixing to come ashore along miami area...as i write this....se edge of eyewall right on top of kamx radar.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
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Re: katrina on wv [Re: LI Phil]
      #49809 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:33 PM

Seeing SW movement again and curious about something.

Is there any merit to the idea that the center might rotate around the area of strongest convection? Just wondering because it appears as if the red area of highest dBz stayed almost stationary and rotated from the S to the SE, and the eye slid SW past it. Or is that simply an optical illusion?

The center of the storm is now over the everglades.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:36 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49810 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:34 PM

Quote:

If the trough keep heading south does it has a chance to pull a Charley?




I'll never say never, when dealing with the weather.
Charley deflected/ turned to the right due to a early season cool front moving SE through the ALMSLA region. It stretched from near Panama City toward the Yucatan or Bay of Campeche.
The current setup is a trough/ weak front running east to west from Jacksonville area toward MS Coast...Please correct the positions if you have an updated map plot.

Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:38 PM)


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Frank P
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Re: Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #49811 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:34 PM

its really interesting to get the opinion of the professional mets regarding the future path of Katrina... I've read during the past hour or so on the internet that several have commented that the ridge is alot stronger than anticipated and that the system would be more west than forecasted by the NHC.... then again several have discussed that its going to go to the big bend area of Florida... all these mets are pros, they do this for a living... and they're the best in the world at what they do, they have access to the best equipment and data analysis available ... and they can't and don't agree.... that''s what makes this systems so facinating and addictive to follow.... bottom line, I'm going with the NHC because they are the best of the best , but they to can and do sometimes miss the boat 4-5 days out in their predictions.......

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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: hurricane expert]
      #49812 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:36 PM

I'm looking at the Miami radar and it looks to me that the eye just made a due south move the last couple of frames. Could it be following the latest GFDL solution?\

(Edit: ahrg...why can I never spell GFDL???)

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:37 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #49813 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:38 PM

>>>ON THIS TRACK...THE Katrina SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA

can't put anything past the NHC can we?

--------------------
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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49814 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:38 PM

I saw that and boy that was some wobble to the south.... we need to see what happens in the next couple of frames to see if it is stair stepping downward in an overall wsw to sw motion... nothing never surprises me about these things..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml


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Margie
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Re: Discussion [Re: Frank P]
      #49815 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:41 PM

From the 9pm NHC PA, this is kind of cool:

"...calm of the large eye experienced at the National Hurricane Center..."

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:41 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: danielw]
      #49816 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:41 PM

Looking at the NW Atlantic WV Loop, the current patterns over the SE lead me to believe that a Louisiana/Texas landfall is very possible.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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Random Chaos
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: MichaelA]
      #49818 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:46 PM

You can really make out the historical track of the eye by looking at the highest rainfall line:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NTP_lp.shtml

Note that the eye is just to the north of that line based on radar, and has been all along.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:47 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Keys question [Re: MichaelA]
      #49819 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:46 PM

Not to sound any alarms, but, what in the heck will the keys do if the storm continues to track further south than expected? what sort of emergency plans are in place for them.

And I know the short answer is hunker down and hope for the best, but hopefully there's going to be some due west motion and soon, (though the storm is fairly weak)

I really didn't see this southern motion coming at all, it's just, so suprising to see the airflow start pushing the storm south.

urk
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
14/13/04/01
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dolfinatic
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Re: Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #49820 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:47 PM

Ok, enlighten me. Where is the trough located that is supposed to pick this up and move it North? I dont see it on wv loop. Maybe I am not seeing something but it appears that there isnt anything to turn this north. I am probably wrong so if anyone can help me understand would be appreciated.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49821 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:48 PM

If this system keep moving slow is there a possibility that the storm could turn sooner north.

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MichaelA
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Re: Keys question [Re: Bloodstar]
      #49822 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:48 PM

TS warnings have been posted for all of the keys. Those folks know what to do.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Frank P]
      #49823 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:48 PM

they are getting some amazing radar pictures, even level II data from kamx right now.....yes it is more of wsw right now movement....also center is 5.1-8.3miles away from radar with winds on base velocity at 71kts at 215ft above ground!!!!! looks really cool!!! a lot of lightning is also being detected wsw of miami....
also if it keeps present course it should exit on that sw most county of state...i'll find the name, i don't see and towns or cities on my radar program in that county....it's the county southeast of naples

http://www.nbc6.net/index.html

live streaming video and radar on screen VIPIR program

--------------------
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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:50 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49824 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:50 PM

monroe

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: danielw]
      #49825 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:51 PM

Quote:

Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.




Brian Norcross reported two gusts of 95 mph on VIrginia Key. Unfortunately I do not have a site to back me up on that, but that's what he said on the air about two and a half hours ago.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Discussion [Re: dolfinatic]
      #49826 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:52 PM

There is a new GFDL model out:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/katrina12l/fcst/archive/05082518/1.html

It does not look good for those people on the gulf or the keys. It is calling for a pressure drop to 970mb just after the eye moves offshore of FL, with little impact at all while overland. Then it strenthens it to a 950mb system and brings it north to the east of Pensicola (I don't know FL place names that well...so I go look at the bottom of the page if you want to see where exactly).

--RC


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: LI Phil]
      #49827 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:53 PM

There is very little human presence along that coast. A couple of very small towns/communities is all there is. Best access to them is by water.

--------------------
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WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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HanKFranK
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sw [Re: Steve H1]
      #49828 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:53 PM

katrina's center has gotten south of the tamiami trail in dade.. moving out into the glades. it's halfway across dade now. if the pace keeps up it will be moving out into florida bay about 15 mi SE of chokoloskee around 3-4am. if the recent track maintains, Katrina will be offshore before sunup. could be back to hurricane strength tomorrow afternoon. the storm has been moving faster than anticipated.. makes me wonder if the monday landfall timeframe is off, and that sunday would be the day. also am fairly convinced now that Katrina will strike again as a much stronger system. it will probably come off with a pressure 990-995mb.. that's something that will spin back to hurricane in a few hours. the waters in florida bay are shallower, but should get sufficiently deep by the afternoon to get things really rolling again.
miami got more than expected this evening. the storm slid sw down the coast, with its strongest convection on the southern side. it also continued to intensify as it made landfal.. the lowest reported pressure, 984 mb, was as the center moved past miami. just barely got my intensity forecast right... 982 was what i was thinking, but left a 2mb spread.
right now, during the sun/mon timeframe anywhere within 100 miles of either side of cape san blas looks like a bad place to be. the west coast of florida isn't out of the woods either, if Katrina were to stall over the weekend, say.
six more days in august... lee hasn't magically appeared so meeting the forecast gray made for the month is going to be tight. i honestly believe 97L should be/should have been a rated system, but i don't make the calls. it still has a chance, but i'm doubting.
HF 0153z26august


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Margie
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49829 - Thu Aug 25 2005 09:58 PM

Quote:

if it keeps present course it should exit on that sw most county of state...i'll find the name, i don't see and towns or cities on my radar program in that county....it's the county southeast of naples

http://www.nbc6.net/index.html

live streaming video and radar on screen VIPIR program




Monroe Cty. It has the western strip all the way to the southern tip.
keys too. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:01 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: sw [Re: HanKFranK]
      #49830 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:00 PM

I don't know about 97L. I haven't been impressed by it at all. Sure, it's maintained a respectable LLC, but the convection has been well to the NE for days. Today's sat pics seem to show that the LLC may be spinning down a bit, too. There's still a chance if the shear relaxes. I'm not holding my breath, though.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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Storm Hunter
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Re: sw [Re: MichaelA]
      #49831 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:02 PM

report now 1million without power

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Upper Winds [Re: LI Phil]
      #49832 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:02 PM

I've been looking over the data from the planes...NOAA and AFRES.
Recon has flown the 25.0 Lat line to a point south of Biloxi,MS.
The wind direction never got past 113degrees. Or just south of due east.
25.0N/ 85.0W wind 041deg,NE at 15kts
25.0N/ 86.0W wind 077deg,ENE at 19kts
25.0N/ 87.0W wind 079deg, ENE at 17kts
25.0N/ 87.3W wind 092deg,ESE at 021kts
25.0N/ 88.4W wind 113deg,ESE at 018kts

I'll have to convert the flight level to altitude in feet.
9175 meters, 30094feet-pressure altitude.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:09 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: danielw]
      #49833 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:05 PM

GFDL 18Z track:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

This is the latest one. Sure looks like a hit for the FL panhandle. It's tracking almost eactly how Katrina is going.


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Frank P
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: danielw]
      #49835 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:06 PM

the center is only 36 miles away from the GOM... if its traveling at 6 mph then the center (of the center) should enter the GOM at ~ 3 am CDT..... I think it will be closer to 2 am CDT.... continues on the SW track during the past hour from what I can tell... still looks quite impressive on radar as well... south and east eye wall kicking butt right now.... pretty impressive Cat 1 storm.... it a player for sure

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debwire
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Katrina Will Have Better Opportunity to Become Stronger? [Re: Clark]
      #49836 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:08 PM

Weather Channel forecasters just predicted that the second Katrina landfall (now expected to be the Florida panhandle) will be much stronger than tonight's landfall in the Miami area. Katrina has the opportunity to maintain much of her strength as she moves across Florida and enters Gulf waters further south than first anticipated. This means Katrina will have more time over Gulf waters, therefore more opportunity to become much stronger. Any other thoughts on this?

--------------------
--<--<@
Deb from DebWire
http://www.debwire.com

Florida transplant who has only endured Frances and Jeanne while narrowly escaping Charley.


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Frank P]
      #49838 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:09 PM

local met on fox 13 here in tampa says he expects a cat 2 or cat 3 for second land fall .. also said this storm has been very tricky .. also last night on abc action news thier mets had thier titan sytm predicting this sw movement .. strange stuff

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JMII
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Frank P]
      #49839 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:10 PM

Katrina came in around N Miami Beach and basically cut SW across all of Dade County - so whichever model predicted a southern curve was right, the storm did NOT take NHC projected "slow west" track thru Broward Co. Thus the forecast was accurate in the overall area of landfall and strenght at the time (good), but off considerably after that (bad). On a local level an error of entire county makes a big difference. Throughtout most of the day I'd would have bet the farm on WPB getting the worst and MIA getting the least, however in the end the opposite will be true.

At this rate of movement and direction she'll pop out down in Flamingo/Florida Bay instead of Naples - so I sure hope people in the Keys and SW FL are paying attention.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Margie
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Re: Discussion [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49840 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:13 PM

Quote:

Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:






Yeah but its current position is south of even the GFDL. Yes totally agree UKMET the only model showing straight SW movement, but more like the NHC's 265/5 prediction -- doesn't it look more like it's been 225 deg (true SW) since landfall?

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:22 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Katrina Will Have Better Opportunity to Become Stronger? [Re: debwire]
      #49841 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:15 PM

center now due west of radar about 12.5nm

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ron Basso
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49842 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:15 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Miami International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 68kts-78mph at 8:55PM EDT. Highest gust found so far.




Brian Norcross reported two gusts of 95 mph on VIrginia Key. Unfortunately I do not have a site to back me up on that, but that's what he said on the air about two and a half hours ago.




Maximum Observed Wind Gusts:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN WEST MIAMI RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 86 MPH AT 917 PM EDT.

FT LAUD INT 82 MPH at 753 PM EDT.

MIAMI-KENDALL-TAMIAMI EXE AIRPORT 81 MPH at 953 PM EDT

--------------------
RJB


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MichaelA
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49843 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:15 PM

I see the model moving the US trough (currently over the plains) toward the SE and picking up Katrina. It will all depend whether or not that trough behaves as forecast. Still, a cat 2 and probably 3 storm is going to hit on the north Gulf coast somewhere between north FL and LA. Timing is everything.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Discussion [Re: Margie]
      #49844 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:





Yeah but its current position is south of even the GFDL.




I'm thinking the latest (18Z) GFDL seems to be pretty accurate to the path based on what I've seen.

BTW, stupid people alert: http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp8-25-05gg.jpg
The caption was: "Russell Crossey and his dog are soaked by large waves generated by Katrina in West Palm Beach. (AP)"


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Kevin
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: JMII]
      #49845 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:18 PM

I'm really quite surprised by how much of a sw component that Katrina has tonight...it's really quite substantial. I agree with the posts above as far as timeframe goes. If the current motion continues, Katrina will be back over water during the middle of the night. This contrasts to NHC's afternoon arrival of Katrina (in the Gulf).

You all know what would be wild? How about this...wake up in the morning, and Katrina is near the keys!

Not saying that will happen...


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Kevin]
      #49846 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:20 PM

question its in the everglades right now .. so it could stay kinda strong b/c of all the water down there in the swamps?

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Random Chaos
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #49847 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:21 PM

Quote:

question its in the everglades right now .. so it could stay kinda strong b/c of all the water down there in the swamps?




I think the conclusion we had an hour or two ago was: "There isn't enough experimental data to really know how the Everglades will effect the system."


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Kevin
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #49848 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:22 PM

Quote:

question its in the everglades right now .. so it could stay kinda strong b/c of all the water down there in the swamps?




Yeah...I'd say that the moist and humid environment down there is probably helping to sustain Katrina.


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scottsvb
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: MichaelA]
      #49849 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:22 PM

Will post more later tonight and again tomorrow afternoon on projected path. Katrina came inland with winds near 80mph with gusts near 100mph...there are some reports that it might of been closer to 85-90mph at landfall. Currently she is 80mph, but wouldnt be surprised if its down to 75mph at 11pm. Movement was wsw to sw over the last couple of hours. This is due to the unexpect trough over the NW Carribean being stronger then forecasted. I wouldnt be surprised if she slows to a crawl late tonight into tomorrow. She will probably be near Florida bay and Flamingo during the morning. After that we will see,,,,for now,, will wait for the 0z runs come out. Remember the models have been changing more then any storm this season. I do have a feeling when it does move N,, a turn to the NE like the dynamical models might happen instead of a bend. I will say no more till later.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: Upper Winds [Re: scottsvb]
      #49852 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:27 PM

You want oz model runs here are a bunch.They all for the most part take it to the panhandle as it is getting to the coast faster then they thought it would.Heck by almost a day.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png


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Colleen A.
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Re: Discussion [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49854 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:28 PM

That looks to be like Apalachicola Bay/St. Marks ? Also Tallahassee is pretty close to that area.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Kevin
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: scottsvb]
      #49856 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:29 PM

Pretty much agree with your assesment Scott. I think that the wsw and sw motion tonight has thrown a bit of a curveball into the forecast. And if Katrina were to stall? Then all bets would really be off...

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ChessieStorm
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: scottsvb]
      #49857 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:29 PM

Could the High pressure over Arkansas be pushing the storm down? If you look on the Water Vapor Sat. of the eastern US, you can clearly see a high pressure spin and the clouds going around it and the storm reacting to being pushed.

This, coupled with the trough in the Caribbean is helping to push and pull the storm down. Of course, the big question is, will this trend continue or relax and allow Katrina to pull toward the west, then northwest.


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MichaelA
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Kevin]
      #49858 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:30 PM

I really don't want to see another Elena!

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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nl
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: MichaelA]
      #49859 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:32 PM

how big can this storm get i mean if this thing keeps hanging around could this thing gather more and more power and be like a 300 or 400 mile storm?

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ralphfl
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: nl]
      #49860 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:34 PM

oh please dont say that and get people who dont have a clue about storms to think they even can get close to that.In fact if it hanged around to long it would cycle down after awhile like a top does when you spin it.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #49861 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:35 PM

base velocity 32nm.... bright colors are winds 71kts.... 151ft to 1300ft above ground

http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/bv32nm.png

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:36 PM)


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LI Phil
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se wv loopy [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #49862 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:37 PM

chessie's post got me to thinkin...

check out the se usa wv loop...

all ya'll can CLEARLY see the south westerly jog...and just look at the overall interaction with the high pressure spinning over arkansas...i gotta think Katrina will track wsw or sw or even ssw for at least another 4-5 hours and exit into the GOM damn close to the keys...

i think we're about to see a whole shift in the modeling after these data are fed into the computers...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Colleen A.
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: scottsvb]
      #49863 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:40 PM

Joe B. said that he thinks it's moving more like 10mph right now, not 6mph. He basically said that it's moved 40 miles in 4 hours. The math's correct. He also said that he thinks it will exit the coast tomorrow morning around 6am, then try to figure out where it's going to go. His projected path is pretty close to that of the NHC's. Although, depending on how this storm behaves, that's like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
One more thing he mentioned: he said the storm is being fed by the feeder bands that are just north of the Keys, and that's where Katrina wants to go. I think Margie mentioned this already, but I'll just throw it in there for more confusion.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ralphfl
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49864 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:42 PM

Phil this is what the GDFL has said and NOGAPS also said the same but a little higher.Bottom line 2-4 models had it going south but the Hurricane center discarded them.

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MichaelA
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49865 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:42 PM

Most recent Miami radar loop seems to show a more westerly movement now.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 26/10/3


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Margie
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #49866 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:42 PM

I think she's starting to slow down.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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teesda
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49867 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:42 PM

That satellite loop is amazing. You can see the hurricane try to track NW and then the High over Arkansas starts to intesify and Katrina dips pretty hard to the SW. It would be hard to dispute that the High had a definite impact. Hopefully Katrina can spare the keys. I will pray for the panhandle.

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twizted sizter
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49868 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:45 PM

Well Phil we could certainly have an interesting discussion based on that scenario huh?!?!

Was afraid to mention it but since you brought it up...

Can't remember where..2 days ago maybe...a model showed similiar set up & had her make a sharp turn back east...dismissed it as crazy...right.


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Margie
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: MichaelA]
      #49869 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:46 PM

Quote:

Most recent Miami radar loop seems to show a more westerly movement now.




It seems so, but if you zoom in close, and stick with the SE rim of the convection, not go by where it is opening up to the NW, the movement is still SW. I saw that and thought...let's wait another 20 min and see.

11p discussion ought to be interesting!

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:50 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49870 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:47 PM

Thankfully, the GFDL solutions from yesterday were too far south with the position of the system, because the SW motion predicted by that model has materialized. If it had stayed offshore longer and been further south, we might have an unexpected major hurricane going through the Keys right now, which would have been a disaster.

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Guitarman
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49871 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:47 PM

Quote:


i think we're about to see a whole shift in the modeling after these data are fed into the computers...




In what direction would the shift be in your opinion? To the west, like maybe around Destin/Panama City Beach?


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LI Phil
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49872 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:49 PM

i learned a long time ago that while the models are great as guides...they ain't worth jack when storms decide to follow climatology...

wv loops are amazing aren't they?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49873 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:49 PM

Hmm..that is very interesting. Did you also notice the clouds in the mid-Atlantic are almost being pulled directly to the NE? Check out the area near VA/TN/SC/NC etc. then look due east.
Sheesh...what a mess.

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firestar_1
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49874 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:52 PM

LI Phil,
After looking at that link, I think there may be something to the idea of that high up north pushing this system south...it sure looks that that is happening. I have been looking at the satellites, radar, and other data and it appears that Katrina is testing the models and the mets...I am thinking we may see her turn suddenly north sooner than expected also...maybe 6 to 12 hour...20 at the outside...but that is just based on the some of the things I see at this time...but this is 2005 and anything is now possible.....

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Edited by firestar_1 (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:55 PM)


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Frank P
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Margie]
      #49875 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:53 PM

good eye Margie... I think it might be more of a wobble to the west but tracking the se section of the overall eye feature and it still looks wsw to sw.... and Joe B is right its moving more than 6 mph.. the center of the eye is only 26 miles away from the GOM and if it is moving say at ~ 8 - 10 mph it will start entering the GOM between 1 and 2 am CDT... I post this about two hours or so ago, this is well ahead of the predicted forecast by the NHC... only thing that could screw it up is if it slows down...

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LI Phil
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Guitarman]
      #49876 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:53 PM

Quote:

Quote:


i think we're about to see a whole shift in the modeling after these data are fed into the computers...




In what direction would the shift be in your opinion? To the west, like maybe around Destin/Panama City Beach?




i'm sorry...yes...to the west...i'm no where ready to make any calls on the second landfall...but a cat III somewhere from PCB west to the bama/missip border wouldn't surprise me...god i hope i'm wrong about that

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Colleen A.
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49877 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:53 PM

You know, they showed those models on the spaghetti plot --- I think there were 3 of them -- bringing it further south then crossing the state near West Central/North Central Florida with a sharp east turn. I saw that 3 times on different tv stations and they were pretty much dismissed.
We shall see....

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nl
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: firestar_1]
      #49878 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:54 PM

off the subject but now do we think the animals were right about this season? its starting too make sense now.

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ralphfl
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: firestar_1]
      #49879 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:54 PM

Quote:

LI Phil,
After looking at that link, I think there my be something to the idea of that high up north pushing this system south...it sure looks that that is happening. I have been looking at the satellites, radar, and other data and it appears that Katrina is testing the models and the mets...I am thinking we may see her turn suddenly north sooner than expected also...maybe 6 to 12 hour...20 at the outside...but that is just based on the some of the things I see at this time...but this is 2005 and anything is now possible.....





Well none of the models show that nor the NHC so what do you see (link) that shows a reason on it going north soon and no later then 24 hours?


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Steve H1
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49880 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:57 PM

Hate to say it again, but I'll repeat it. The models beyond 36 hours now are junk. We're in real time here, and she's gonna bomb tomorrow. That convection that's been feeding into her from the SW is ultimately going to expand her as she strengthens. And what you said Scott, might be correct. I know what you're thinking. Stay tuned.

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ralphfl
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49881 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:57 PM

11pm is out and the path is about the same maybe a little more west yet again so where is this north turn you guys see that they don't?


Heck the west coast is about out of the cone! hmmmm guess they dont see any chance of a ne turn now do they.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 10:58 PM)


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jbmusic
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49882 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:59 PM

Is it just me or does the eye look better defined over land now than it did over the water?

no...but just watch her bomb once she hits the GOM

--------------------
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Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:03 PM)


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twizted sizter
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: LI Phil]
      #49883 - Thu Aug 25 2005 10:59 PM

This has certainly been one of the more interesting storms I've tracked & I feel for the NHC in trying to make the right call...imagine the coffee pots have been running 24/7.

Looking forward to the next update & especially the one following it.


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Random Chaos
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49884 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:07 PM

What I'm reading from the NHC is that they're concerned what the system will do intensity-wise:

"KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING Katrina TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF Katrina IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL. "

Full source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/260257.shtml

In case you don't quite understand why this is significant:
Global models are very course in their analysis of the world weather. This is becuase they are analyzing so much. The result is they are unable to predict anything eyewall or inside (and often not anything even near that). For a global to drop so much in pressure either means (a) the eye is very big or (b) the eye is a LOT lower pressure then the global model. Either way, that doesn't sound like good news.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:11 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: jbmusic]
      #49885 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:09 PM

The eye certainly doesn't look any worse than it did when coming onshore. I have trouble imagining it weakening as much as the official forecast suggests, considering the way it looks right now. The intensity forecast as a whole seems pretty conservative.

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firestar_1
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49886 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:09 PM

Quote:

Well none of the models show that nor the NHC so what do you see (link) that shows a reason on it going north soon and no later then 24 hours?




You might what to look at the link LI Phil posted and check the speed and direction of movement of that high in question. I also check steering currents and pressures. I have been tracking typhoons and hurricanes since my first typhoon in 1970...most of the time I get lucky...or like with Charlie unlucky....sometimes I can find solid data before hand and see something.....but normally post analysis puts it all together....and as a side note.....find your own darn links.......

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lockjaw
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Tampa/St. Pete re-entry odds? [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49887 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:12 PM

I live on the beach...literally...on St. Pete Beach. If this thing builds up and gets close, I'll have to board up and get out, so I'm watching very closely for any potential moves in my direction. Anyone got any educated guesses on the odds that this could be steered back in my direction after stewing in the Gulf for a while? I just saw a model that pushes it precisely that way (the A98E)...

(Please, no "gut feelings" or wishcasting...just looking for someone who understands the science a little better than I do as to what might steer this when it hits the Gulf in a couple of hours...)


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OcalaKT
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49888 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:14 PM

Quote:

11pm is out and the path is about the same maybe a little more west yet again so where is this north turn you guys see that they don't?


Heck the west coast is about out of the cone! hmmmm guess they dont see any chance of a ne turn now do they.




If you look at the five day cone, must of northwest, and central florida are still in the cone


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ralphfl
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: firestar_1]
      #49889 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:14 PM

The west Coast of Florida is almost out of the cone (And yes charlie hit in the cone) half of the east coast of Florida is out of the cone and if this keeps going west when i wake up all the coast will be out of the cone.Where it is now was still in the cone so these posts of going up the coast and going across the state you guys need to go talk to the NHC since they took all of C florida out of the cone.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:16 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #49890 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM

Quote:

The eye certainly doesn't look any worse than it did when coming onshore. I have trouble imagining it weakening as much as the official forecast suggests, considering the way it looks right now. The intensity forecast as a whole seems pretty conservative.




Yeah, I'm thinking the same thing. The eye hasn't shown any signs of disruption while overland. It's been overland for almost 5 hours now, and it still looks strong. If it exits in 3-4 hours as predicted, I don't see any reason for the intensity drop that NHC is predicting. It will be moving over VERY warm water, approaching 30-31C in places. This is ripe for development, and if the eye stays intact, it doesn't even need to reoganize.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49891 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM

Steve and Scott, I just saw the latest ETA model run on another board. It agrees with your thinking. ETA Run Image

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scottsvb
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: twizted sizter]
      #49892 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:15 PM

The N turn will be from the trough over the N plains and eastern Rockies right now, should be over the Missouri valley tomorrow, ohio valley on sat and Se US and eastern seaboard on Sunday...what does that mean? A trend to the models MUST ensue to the E in time. 1-2 might not want to pick it up until the last moment. People may say,,look at that strong ridge over Arkansas that will slide and and reinforce a push south of the frontal trough..the same push it gave Katrina now to the sw (which most models predicted). this will drive it down to the panhandle across georgia and the Carolinas on sunday,,now with saying that,,Katrina will have to push NE along and ahead of the trough. Matters on her speed of movement from now until sunday. Faster she moves (10mph friday-Saturday) will give her enough time to get further NW in the gulf to near 85 w making landfall near panama city or she will go more east where I been projecting it.
Btw 1 model ( ETA ) is out now on the 0z run,,it has her getting to 85W but then move N and NNE to CrossCity by 84hours....this is a shift to the right as predicted...we will see if the major globels do the same. Will post more around 2am.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Tampa/St. Pete re-entry odds? [Re: lockjaw]
      #49893 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:18 PM

Quote:

I live on the beach...literally...on St. Pete Beach. If this thing builds up and gets close, I'll have to board up and get out, so I'm watching very closely for any potential moves in my direction. Anyone got any educated guesses on the odds that this could be steered back in my direction after stewing in the Gulf for a while? I just saw a model that pushes it precisely that way (the A98E)...

(Please, no "gut feelings" or wishcasting...just looking for someone who understands the science a little better than I do as to what might steer this when it hits the Gulf in a couple of hours...)




I think right now we are looking at "wait and see." We have no clue anymore what this thing is going to do. Almost all the models show no loopback, but the environmental conditions show it might happen. But then almost all the models also aren't showing the system doing what it has already done the last few hours.

So, back to the "wait and see." If I were you, I'd pay very close attention to satellite and be prepared to go if you see it start heading toward you tomorrow. It is pretty clear that nothing major is going to happen tonight. It has to have a chance to strengthen, but I'd expect that to happen fairly quickly after it leaves land.


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Margie
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Re: Upper Winds [Re: Frank P]
      #49894 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:19 PM

Quote:

good eye Margie... I think it might be more of a wobble to the west but tracking the se section of the overall eye feature and it still looks wsw to sw....



Yes I still don't know jack about forecasting, natch, since I have no training or college courses on meterology, but have worked really hard since July on trying to read and understand the sat images and radar images, which is something you can still try to do even with little specific met knowledge. It is enjoyable, even if I can only track after the fact. I'd get so much more out of the info presented here however with some basic training. Am maybe going to try to find some courses I can do either online or after hours.

It is great to be able to come here and find out so much information from all the knowledgeable folks.

I had thought for a minute she was slowing down but holey moley, guess not.

So...the 11pm discussion did mention the direction as 225 rather than 265 deg and adjusted the speed as well, and mentioned the high Phil showed on the wv loop.

Now, is there any chance that all that convection that built S of the keys that Skeet mentioned and that you can see so well on the sat, is going to merge with the TS as it exits into the GOM? Maybe get pulled into feeder bands from the S and help speed the increase in intensity?

Also...isn't it interesting that with the Gulf Stream and with the feeder bands on the E and S, that hurricanes going W into Miami area continue to strengthen over land for a short time (Andrew did too, right?).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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weatherwatcher2
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Steve H1]
      #49895 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 PM

what do you think hes thinking? scottsvb that is. I know what you're thinking. Stay tuned. tell us please..

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ralphfl
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: scottsvb]
      #49896 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 PM

what aboiut these 0z runs which are out? http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

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Random Chaos
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49897 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 PM

Quote:

Steve and Scott, I just saw the latest ETA model run on another board. It agrees with your thinking. ETA Run Image




To use: Copy the link ( http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-491-1125025748.gif ) and paste it in your URL bar after you click on it. They've got their site set up to block offsite links


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Steve H1
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: OcalaKT]
      #49898 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:22 PM

Correct Random, you don't see the EC do that every day. That means something - carries weight. Interesting, but not to be taken too seriously, the new NAM takes Katrina from the coast off SW Florida, then northward, then SW towards the Central GOM, then NE again towards the Florida coast near the Suwannee. Anyone remember Elena? Now biggie size it!! Yes this will get interesting. Still amazed at the convection between Cuba and Katrina. That sky must be lighting up!

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Ron Basso
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #49899 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:26 PM

Big Red, I didn't see the ETA model when I pulled up the link

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RJB


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Random Chaos
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Steve H1]
      #49900 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:27 PM

Quote:

Anyone remember Elena? Now biggie size it!! Yes this will get interesting.




Since people are talking about Elena, here's the track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/ELENA/track.gif
(purple = Cat 3)

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:28 PM)


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Ryan
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After South Florida [Re: Steve H1]
      #49901 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:29 PM

i think she has the time and the potential and the factors to maybe become strong 2 or minimal 3 and affect from Panama City to St.George Island and the Apalachicola area to the Apalachee Bay area. So basically from Bay to Gulf to Franklin to Wakulla counties could be in for a strong 2 min. 3, i got this info from the spaghetti model plots.

-Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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OcalaKT
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Steve H1]
      #49902 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:29 PM

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

Link to five day forecast path. Still very wide cone, covering most of northern florida.


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schmoo
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49903 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:30 PM

Since people are talking about Elena, here's the track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/ELENA/track.gif
(purple = Cat 3)





eeeew..;i don't like elena
but looks like the panhandle is in sights again

sorry...shouldn't post without more informative info
won't do it again

Edited by schmoo (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:31 PM)


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jbmusic
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49904 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:30 PM

Was Elana the one that just meandered in the gulf for several days?

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Big Red Machine
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49905 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:30 PM

Sorry Ron I may have made an error putting in the url. You may need to copy and paste this.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-491-1125025748.gif


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wxman007
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After a long Hiatus... [Re: Ryan]
      #49906 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:32 PM

I'm back...there has been a lot going on here professionally here at WJHG that has kept me from posting, but I am going to try to resume getting on here and seeing if I can add a little something to the already sterling discussions from the other mets on here.

Again, I apologize for my absence (not that I was missed much) and am glad to be home!

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Steve H1
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49907 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:32 PM

WW@, the idea is that if Katrina moves out quick into the GOM off the SW Coast, it may get picked up and move back NE to Tampa then cut back across the state towards JAX. At least the right turn will happen, not a wide re-curve as the 18Z globals and 0z tropicals were showing. But its really all up in the air. Tomorrow MAY bring some clarity.

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hurricane expert
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Re: Hurricane Katrina Landfalls near the Dade/Broward County Line [Re: Clark]
      #49909 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:35 PM

What are the chances for this system to hook back to the NE if it slows down or if it gains speed.

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Margie
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: ralphfl]
      #49910 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:36 PM

You know part of that convection has stayed put over the east coast, and there is now a large area, around Homestead, with 10 in of rain storm totals.

Also...does it look like that strong SE band is starting to drop SW and a little away from the center, as the storm loses strength and organization, and the COC is starting to go a little more W?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:43 PM)


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ralphfl
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Re: After a long Hiatus... [Re: wxman007]
      #49911 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:37 PM

Quote:

I'm back...there has been a lot going on here professionally here at WJHG that has kept me from posting, but I am going to try to resume getting on here and seeing if I can add a little something to the already sterling discussions from the other mets on here.

Again, I apologize for my absence (not that I was missed much) and am glad to be home!





Will you add your thoughts to the post above who like a few other casters not mets but casters are thinking of a NE turn back to tampa.When i see 1 model out of 50 that even think anything near that.What are your thoughts.


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Frank P
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Re: After a long Hiatus... [Re: wxman007]
      #49912 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:37 PM

nice to have you back Jason... radar shows Katrina still moving off to the sw or wsw.... and getting close to the GOM... once in the GOM the NHC has it tracking due west for a short period.. this will be interesting to see if it indeed behaves as they predict.... for what I can tell on radar she could be in the GOM in a couple of hours at the earliest....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml


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Random Chaos
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Margie]
      #49913 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:38 PM

Quote:

You know part of that convection has stayed put over the east coast, and there is now a large area, around Homestead, with 10 of rain storm totals.




I'm seeing 1 or 2 pink pixels (12" rain totals) on this just landward of the coast. They are directly under the green of the Flood Warning. You might want to zoom to see them.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NTP_lp.shtml


Also, the eye is looking more ragged now. It is starting to fill in on the east side. If it holds out just a couple hours more it will still have a well defined eye moving into the gulf, but I'm not sure that will happen now.

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:40 PM)


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Clark
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Re: After a long Hiatus... [Re: wxman007]
      #49914 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:38 PM

Welcome back, Jason!

I've posted the Thursday night update to my forecast in the Met blogs; also available on the front page below the main news item. It is largely an update of the Tuesday night forecast for intensity purposes and reflects a substantial shift upward in intensity at second landfall. I owe Jason some thanks for some collaboration earlier this evening -- unbeknownst to him, it helped my tennis game at the same time! -- and this is largely a reflection of his thinking as well (as far as I know).

This is going to be a long weekend, so stay tuned.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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twizted sizter
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: scottsvb]
      #49915 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:39 PM

Yeah I thought that's where you were going with things...was kind of surprised she didn't get further south & I wonder if maybe more of a push east will happen now.

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Frank P
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Re: After a long Hiatus... [Re: Frank P]
      #49916 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:39 PM

its now only 16 miles away from the GOM, and is moving at least 8 mph, perhaps as much as 10.... certainly no slowdown is yet apparent

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Colleen A.
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Re: se wv loopy *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: ralphfl]
      #49917 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:46 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


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Posts: 132
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Colleen A.]
      #49920 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:52 PM

Here in Atlanta for the first time that I can remember, all 4 TV mets are giving decidedly different forecasts, with either a track through central GA after 2nd landfall, but the met from Fox 5 talked about a landfall somewhere close to Pensacola as close to a Cat 3. If that's the case, that would be eeirly reminicent to the track that Cindy took, fooling everyone and tracking to the west and hammering Atlanta with tornadoes and a bunch of rain. Right now, I just dont know where or who to trust and the business I'm in (limousine industry) is dependant upon Hatsfield Airport staying open....So any guidance would be greatly helpful.

Also, How unusual is it for a hurricane to actually maintain or even gain strength while it is over land?

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:59 PM)


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twizted sizter
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #49925 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:56 PM

My best advice is wait & see...that's what we're all doing.

As far as maintaining strength inland...well Charley & Jeanne are prime examples from last year...not their original landfall strength but still hurricane status well inland.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Random Chaos]
      #49927 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:00 AM

Btw before i go to bed (and make many happy ) how is this storm in size compared to charlie and francis Dennis seems smaller to me.


Anyway ill read when i get back from the store.


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Margie
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Re: se wv loopy [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #49929 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:05 AM

You know all that convection that formed S of the keys has already started to be pulled into the feeder bands the last couple hours. I guess that is what is keeping the E coast so wet. It is taking longer for that convection on the east to slide across the state than the COC, but when it is all into the GOM, maybe in another six hours, then Katrina will be cooking.

Sheesh, looks like in another hour, the center'll start to be offshore.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Ron Basso
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Re: After a long Hiatus... [Re: Clark]
      #49930 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:06 AM

Clark, very nice informative blog on the future of Katrina. It looks like you're pretty consistent with the NHC. To me, the storm so far has been closely following the 18Z GFDL which this run overall is in line with your thoughts.

Being that the storm appears to be only a couple of hours from the GOM, and still at 70 mph, it seems likely that it will remain just below Hurricane strength & then have ample opportunity to start the development cycle again. It does look like some dry air has intruded into the north half of the storm, with very little rain from Alligator Alley northward, so perhaps its lost some steam. My main question is, I live on the Nature Coast about 50 miles north of St Pete - do u think there's much chance for Katrina to turn NE prior my latitude (28.5 N)?

--------------------
RJB


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Cooking...Breakfast Maybe [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49933 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:09 AM

HURRICANE Katrina TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Katrina WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES IN EASTERN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER KNABB

It doesn't look to be long now!!~danielw


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Cooking...Breakfast Maybe [Re: danielw]
      #49936 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:16 AM

Danny boy go to the NWS experimental radar site, select the still radar image, left click on the center of the eye, then drag you curser to the western edge of FL....looks like 12-13 tto the coast

another observation from tonight... NHC has been taking slow down for two days... well its not slowing down which could indicate that the ridge is stronger than anticipated, nor weakening as fast as they expected, system also went more south than projected from earlier forecasts....... now what this does to the final landfall point remains to be seen....

radar link
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx.shtml

Edited by Frank P (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:19 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
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The other storm [Re: Frank P]
      #49938 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:21 AM

Meanwhile, with all our occupied time tracking Katrina, we've forgotten about the storm that just hit Japan tonight:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

(and now I sleep...long day today...and now a long day tomorrow it looks like! Storm tracking is fun.)

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:23 AM)


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
once more into the abyss... [Re: Frank P]
      #49939 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:21 AM

one last time, at least for the wee hours of friday, i will ask ya'll to take a look at katrina's sw us wv loop...

i'd say she's in the GOM by 4 am and strengthening...and NOT particularly following ANY of the current paths the models have...

3 dead now, btw, with Katrina

sad

tamiami=7.3"...damn near john holmes territory there...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: LI Phil]
      #49942 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:31 AM

I think there's more to that Tamiami report.
This link is showing a storm total of over 21 inches.
Scroll down and select "Storm Total".
Gives a good look at the path of the storm too!

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?AMX

What happened to the storm center? It looks to have jumped toward the coast!!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: LI Phil]
      #49943 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:31 AM

Mr. Phil, I've looked at your very pretty water vapor loop, what specifically are you indicating and trying to point out per the loop... Help this dysfunctional Italiano understand and feel your pain... I can see the sw motion of the system but can't discern the eye feature... I don't see any driving troughs coming from the north that going to sweep Ms Katrina off her feet and immediately pull her to the north or ne as some claim... work with me Phil and provide me some much need edification on this pretty sat presentation that you are so fond of please sir...

and I think your right about her and the models... good call


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Cooking...Breakfast Maybe [Re: Frank P]
      #49944 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:32 AM

The last update I saw on TWC Dr Lyons said this storm would enter the gulf in the next couple of hours. I think it was around midnight when I heard him say that.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: danielw]
      #49946 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:34 AM

yeah looks likes its less than 10 miles from coast... that's weird huh? ~ 7 as best I can tell...

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LI Phil
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Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: Frank P]
      #49947 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:39 AM

Quote:

Mr. Phil, I've looked at your very pretty water vapor loop, what specifically are you indicating and trying to point out per the loop... Help this dysfunctional Italiano understand and feel your pain... I can see the sw motion of the system but can't discern the eye feature... I don't see any driving troughs coming from the north that going to sweep Ms Katrina off her feet and immediately pull her to the north or ne as some claim... work with me Phil and provide me some much need edification on this pretty sat presentation that you are so fond of please sir...

and I think your right about her and the models... good call




MY pretty wv loop?

hardly...i need to get some "beauty sleep" as sunday we could be looking at a cat III just south of biloxi...but that's like 72+ hours out right now...so...

as you know...if you need only the facts, just watch steve lyons on TWC...

if you want the truth ...read scotsvb's forecasts...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: LI Phil]
      #49949 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:43 AM

Bad part is, the water up here at the Northern Gulf Coast is like 90 degrees. It could get ugly.......

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: Frank P]
      #49950 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:44 AM

Check out the radar...in the last 1/2 hour look how quickly the west side of the circ built up as soon as it got over water. There was nothin' much there the entire time over land, and then presto the whole SW side looking rather together.

I think I'm going to stay up another hour 'cause I want to see this on radar. I bet soon as the COC gets offland it'll be re-forming very quickly.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: Margie]
      #49952 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:49 AM

you beat me to the punch... I was going to comment on the explosion on the western side of the eye wall.... notice its also in the GOM thus the explosion... next couple of days is going to be interesting.... expect the pucket pressure on the Gulf Coast to get really high...

Phil I sure as hell don't want no Cat 3 south of me.... besides all the storms want to go to FL, especially to poor Pensacola.... their water is so much cleaner and nicer than outs... anything east of me is acceptable... later dude


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LI Phil
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Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: Frank P]
      #49954 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:51 AM

check your pm's first...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
OOPS [Re: LI Phil]
      #49955 - Fri Aug 26 2005 12:52 AM

HURRICANE Katrina TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

..AT 1240 AM EDT... 0440Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY.

FORECASTER KNABB

To quote Porky Pig....It ain't over yet!~danielw

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 26 2005 12:54 AM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: once more into the abyss... [Re: LI Phil]
      #49956 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:06 AM

got it Phil, thanks
for some reason my little message icon was not lighting up as usual...

looks like the edge of the center is now approaching the coast line.... center should be totally in the GOM in the next couple of hours... then things are going to get REALLY interesting.... would like to commend the excellent job the mods are doing as usual, and the truly great and outstanding posts that have been provided by the CFHC family members during the past several days... I can't remember in all the years of posting any better posts than whats occurred here on the board thus far with Katrina...


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: OOPS [Re: danielw]
      #49958 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:07 AM

From the 10a NHC PA:

"Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb."

Didn't lose much...going SW, and at that fast clip, really minimized time over land, and also kept the feeder bands over water. Who would've thought at 6pm EDT, that seven hours later Katrina would be headed offshore?

Poor Naranja and Princeton...still getting socked with feeder bands, the area of 12"+ of rain is spreading.

OK I'm fallin' asleep at the wheel here...so to speak...good night all, I'll try not to get post-happy in the am! Still tickled about my 7:30pm guess as to where Katrina would exit FL. Guess odds were that I'd have to get one right eventually.

Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:25 AM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: OOPS [Re: Margie]
      #49961 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:11 AM

absolute NO ONE forecast her to do that... none, zero, nada.... big surprise to me too... can only wonder what, if any, impact it will have to the second landfall of this system... that's about the only thing I think I could forecast accurately , that it will have a second landfall somewhere..... not going out on a limb now am I... hehe

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: OOPS [Re: Frank P]
      #49962 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:18 AM

well it could loop under florida and go out to sea right? J/K but with a storm i guess you could not rule it out totally.

Still never got a answer to my question...Is this storm larger in size Like francis or is it like charlie as to me it does not seem to be a large storm


Also is it me or does it look like in the radar loop dry air coming in to it from the north or just it going southwest

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:24 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: OOPS [Re: ralphfl]
      #49964 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:21 AM

It was more like Charley in size.
Right now she is barely hanging on to the center of circulation. It appeared to be near collapse just before the western eyewall reached the beach.

Update. Last radar update shows a clearly defined 'eye'.

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:24 AM)


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tpratch
Moderator


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Posts: 339
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Re: OOPS [Re: danielw]
      #49965 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:26 AM

Frances started falling apart before landfall, actually ballooning in size while doing so. Chunks of her windfield were drifting off while maintaining some semblence of circulation. Some of her highest gusts here recorded well away from her center (unless of course, I'm thinking of Jeanne).

As mentioned above, Katrina is closer in size to Charley, although with the warmth in the gulf, I'd be unsurprised to see her deepen and grow much larger as the next few days go by...


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
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Re: OOPS [Re: Frank P]
      #49966 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:28 AM

Quote:

that's about the only thing I think I could forecast accurately , that it will have a second landfall somewhere..... not going out on a limb now am I... hehe




Well not unless you meant the second landfall would be Key West...and that's not even such an absurd limb to go out on, as she's still dropping south.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 456
Loc: Georgia Tech
new Topic [Re: Margie]
      #49968 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:34 AM

*nudge*
New topic ...

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
14/13/04/01
18/17/7/04


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HanKFranK
User


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feet wet [Re: Margie]
      #49970 - Fri Aug 26 2005 01:44 AM

well it's 1:30 AM and Katrina's eye is moving back offshore. the position is further SE than i'd expected.. it's right around cape sable. i don't think it will drop a great deal further sw... don't think it'll be too bad in the keys.
the structure indicates northeasterly shear and some subsidence entrainment on the north side. i'm thinking it'll be 12hr or so for the storm to work that completely out.... should slowly reintensify tomorrow, but get significantly stronger on saturday. there is a dry slot that has essentially broken down the northern eyewall.. until that rebuilds some it'll keep the storm nearly stable. one of the outer bands to the S and SE is also quite strong, which keeps the storm's energy from concentrating near the center. these things should work themselves out on friday. it should be a major hurricane by late saturday, and will likely landfall on the panhandle coast as one. don't think pensacola gets this one.. probably the PCB area or east of there, like clark and the consensus are saying. if Katrina does something odd like stall, the ultimate landfall point could end up being further east. the central panhandle east of PCB is sparsely populated save tallahassee inland. this would keep the amount of coastal destruction relatively low, though that's little comfort for central panhandle and big bend communities like apalachicola and port st. joe.
side note that 97L's structure and convective organization have transitioned and improved dramatically. if this doesn't get it classified, nothing will. wave to the east has perked up slightly.
HF 0544z26august


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Ricreig
User


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Re: After a long Hiatus... [Re: wxman007]
      #49982 - Fri Aug 26 2005 05:39 AM

Quote:

I'm back...there has been a lot going on here professionally here at WJHG that has kept me from posting, but I am going to try to resume getting on here and seeing if I can add a little something to the already sterling discussions from the other mets on here.

Again, I apologize for my absence (not that I was missed much) and am glad to be home!


Jason, I think I speak for many here. You are always missed when you are not here and your expertise is missed as well. Clark and others have done a tremendous job during your absence and your resumed contribution will help expand our understanding of current and future weather events.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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