Barry has made landfall and dissipated, so now the attention moves to the 20% area that stretches from the northeast gulf over Florida into the Southeastern Atlantic.

The primary impact of this area, which is a front that likely will stall out over the same area, along with next to steering currents and high water temperatures gives a ripe area for something to possibly develop. However, this something may try to form over land, and if it does, it won't become anything tropical. This is the most likely scenario. It does mean potential for a lot of rain all week, especially toward the end of the week, mostly along the north west coast of Florida and the panhandle, but also reaching across the peninsula, into southern Georgia, and extreme southeastern North and South Carolina. Meaning if you are in those areas, the likelihood of a washout for independence day is on the high side.

As for development, a lot depends on where something decides to form, if at all. Because of how broad the area is models aren't very good at picking up exactly where something may form. Some favor it leaning toward the Gulf side, some off the southeastern coast, and others split the difference over land, which translates into no tropical development.

To reflect this, tthe image below represents locations various models have picked up on.


Image source Google Deepmind

Anything that shows up in the main line models means it's picking one of these and speculating on what happens. The spread means we'll have to watch it. Even if something forms, the likelihood of it becoming strong are slim, but if anything does it is imperative to keep watch to see how it drifts around in a low steering environment. In short, it needs to be watched all week in case it does consolidate, but most likely won't do much other than
rain.

Any Gulf area developing would be the most impactful, best case would be something offshore the southeast as it would likely wind up moving out to sea from there, unlikely to still be together if it got anywhere close to Bermuda.

As it stands now, the most likely outcome is no tropical development, with a lot of off/on rain.

Event Links

Long term radar recording of Florida for the entire length of the area

11AM EDT Update 29 June 2025
TD2 has just barely become Tropical Storm Barry, possibly the worst looking excuse for a name since way back to Andrea. Nonetheless, the cyclone qualifies and will likely produce very heavy rains and some flooding across inland eastern Mexico over the coming days.
Ciel

9AM EDT Update 29 June 2025
Tropical Depression 2 is in the Bay of Campeche now, still forecast to become a minimal tropical storm before landfall in Mexico. Next name is Barry.

There is a new yellow area along the northeast gulf extending over Florida into the Southeast with a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days. Even if nothing develops from it quite a bit of heavy rain, particularly the end of the week, will be found in much of central and northern Florida and Georgia/South Carolina, including the July 4th holiday.



4PM CDT Update 28 June 2025
Invest 91L has become our second Tropical Cyclone of the year in the Atlantic basin, set to best climatology by over two weeks as the depression is forecast to become Tropical Storm Barry before making landfall along the eastern Mexican coastline late Sunday night or Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla.

Original Update

Base image credit: Weathernerds.org


Our second Invest-tagged feature of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is also likely to become our second named storm, unusual in getting back-to-back names out of the very first two Invests should this occur, and also unusual - although not as much so since 1995 - in that this would be well ahead of climatological average for our second name in this basin.

The next name on the list in 2025 is Barry. Interesting side note, the second named storm of 1995 was also Barry.

As of this new update, recon is presently sampling the area within and around Invest 91L and is also confirming that a well-defined circulation appears to be forming within the most recent blowup of convection. With this trend continuing, Tropical Storm Watches and/or Warnings may be issued for portions of the Mexican Gulf coast at any time.

We do already have a Forecast Lounge up on this one to delve deeper into the models and personal best guesses: Barry Lounge

7PM CDT Update 27 June 2025
Conditions for development of 91L appear to be going up and the system is now starting to move into the Bay of Campeche. Given its close proximity to land and what appear to be increasing odds of development, we have opened a Forecast Lounge (91L) for this one.
Ciel

5PM Update 27 June 2025

91L now being tracked over the Yucatan Peninsula with a 30% chance for development. Likely to be short lived if it develops at all, likely to landfall in Mexico near Tampico if it does.



Original Update
The area known as 90L has regained strength overnight, still sheared, but enough to be classified as the season's first Tropical Storm.

It is likely to remain short lived as the convection is getting sheared apart and moving into colder waters.



Outside of this, nothing on the immediate horizon. Although area to watch int he next few weeks include the Bay of Campeche and off the Southeast coast, nothing is terribly likely to develop.

2PM Update 22 June 2025
First invest area of the year is now in the Atlantic, east of Bermuda and unlikely to affect land.

It has a 20% chance to develop and is being tracked as invest 90L.




10AM Update 4 June 2025
The area off the southeast is down to a near 0% chance to develop as most of the energy has moved inland, and will prevent tropical development. However the rain will continue.

Beyond this nothing really on the horizon, a lot of noise on the Bay of Campeche and West Caribbean, but nothing solid. Anything that may get going is most likely to wind up in the eastern Pacific.


2PM Update 2 June 2025
The area off the east coast now has a 10% chance for development of a short-lived system.



Original Update
Today marks the start of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season, and also marks the 30th anniversary of this website, which started in 1995.

The season runs through November 30, 2025.

This year also marks the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which changes a lot for this site and many others. As it started as TD#10 in the Open Atlantic, fell apart, then regenerated into Katrina, made landfall in South Florida as a category 1 hurricane, then grew extremely large and became a strong hurricane, only starting to weaken right at landfall, but it was too late, the surge momentum was already there and in impacted coastal Mississippi the hardest, and caused New Orleans to take years to recover.

This hurricane season is forecast to be average, but it only takes one system to change that opinion.

This year's names are:


Andrea AN-dree uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh
Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh
Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor
Dexter DEHK-ster Olga OAL-guh
Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo
Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien se-BAS-tee-en
Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh
Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van
Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee
Karen KAIR-ren


The only new name on the list is Dexter, which replaced Dorian. Dorian impacted the northern Bahamas greatly as a slow moving Category 5, gave Florida a scare, and eventually had a second landfall in the outer banks of North Carolina..

Starting out there's a very small chance than an area that could show sometime next week in the Caribbean, but it's not likely to amount all that much, and there is time to watch it. Only the GFS model operational model shows it, but several ensembles from other models do. And it's more likely any energy winds up in the Eastern Pacific instead At this far out it's just something to watch, but the GFS is known for creating storms out of nothing this time of year. Another small, weak and short lived area could form off the Carolinas and move out to sea in a week or so.

This year mark's flhurricane.com's 30th year of tracking storms in the Atlantic.

Flhurricane.com was born out of a passion for meteorology and a desire to provide accessible, hype-free hurricane information as much as possible. Founded in 1995 from the outdoor sportsman bbs during a relatively active year. It started out very simple. Mainly there wasn't much hurricane info in the early days of the internet and we started out being focused on central Florida (And still are) but early on we decided to stick to just the Atlantic basic.

In 1995 the internet as we know it was still very young. There were a few usenet newsgroups and gopher services with advisories. Snonut, and the ATWC (from now NHC employee Eric Blake), was about it, along with places like hurricane city that popped up shortly after. In 1996-1996 the actual flhurricane.com name began from Central Florida Hurricane Center. In 1999, it added more community features to fill a gap in the mid-1990s when detailed, community-driven hurricane resources were scarce. Unlike mainstream weather outlets, Flhurricane.com focused on delivering raw data, model outputs, and unfiltered discussions, with a particular emphasis on Florida, which faces more hurricane impacts than any other U.S. state.

WE wanted to break down advisories and discuss systems not driving for hype, click bait, or political reasons and focus on probabilities, without concern as to "clicks" driving sensationalism.

In its infancy, the site offered basic storm tracking tools, satellite imagery links, and a forum for weather enthusiasts to share insights. The internet was still young, and Flhurricane.com leveraged early web technologies to provide mostly articles allowing for commentary. We also built a database (that is still growing) of storms and advisories, as well as articles with the intent to archive them and keep them around.

2004-2005 was the "peak" of site activity mainly driven by active Florida hurricane years leading toward Katrina in 2005. SInce then the activity has leveled off, but the overall goal stayed the course. My current work keeps me from actively working on the site as much as I would like, but with assistance from others, it keeps going on the base goal of keeping information short and to the point. Although not always perfect, we try to keep the hype down and focus on what's going on. Not over or under emphasizing systems, and calling out areas that need to watch out.

If you are new or a long time viewer, thank you. We'll continue on as long as we can. And as always, this just is a supplement, please use the word of the National Hurricane Center for final decisions.

May 15th Tropical Weather outlooks began again, and nothing is on the radar for the preseason so far. The East Pacific may see something before the end of the month, but the Atlantic is looking pretty quiet in May so far.

Names for this year:
Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy

Dexter is the only new name on this list as it replaced 2019's Hurricane Dorian (Which devastated parts of the Bahamas, particularly Abaco island and Grand Bahama) as a category 5, turning north just east of Florida and landfalling on the outer banks of North Carolina much weaker.