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Humberto and Imelda
Posted: 11:43 AM 26 September 2025 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 08:49 AM 30-Sep EDT
9AM EDT 30 September 2025 Update
Overnight, Imelda continued to organize deep convection despite nearby dry air and occasional dry air intrusions, and has become a stout Cat 1 hurricane. Further strengthening is probable and forecast, although not assured. There is a fair chance of significant strengthening now that Imelda is better organized and could fight off shear and dry air for a while as it tracks towards Bermuda, which all guidance has in its sights between 36-48 or so hours from now. The Hurricane Watch for Bermuda could soon become a Hurricane Warning.
Ciel
5AM EDT 28 September 2025 Update
More northerly motion has begun on TD#9 and the models have finally reached a decent consensus, which matches the current forecast track. T#9 is forecast to stay east of Florida (some areas along the east coast may see some squally weather) and make a hard right turn out to sea probably around Daytona and follow Humberto out to sea. Bermuda should watch, but the risk to the southeast ts rapidly decreasing.
11AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Tropical Depression Nine has formed.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
from discussion:
Given the risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the east coast of
Florida, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line. Although it is still too early to specify the details of
potential impacts along the remainder of the southeast U.S. coast,
there remains a risk of heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind
impacts.
10AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Humberto is now a powerful category 4 hurricane and is forecast to become a 5, the cone takes it north of Bermuda, but those there should monitor it closely.
For PTC9 it may develop later today, and the official forecast stall sit offshore of South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for most of the Bahamas this weekend as it will pass through there. Dryer air in the Gulf will likely keep most of the convection and rain away from Florida as it passes by, as the storm doesn't have much on the west side, most areas in Florida won't see any rain from it. Beyond the Bahamas it's currently expected to stall offshore, but possibly close enough to South Carolina for some impacts there, and then head generally out to sea. There's is still a high degree of uncertainty, but that is currently the most likely. Everyone along the southeast and Bermuda should monitor this system, as things could change, especially if the system forms north of forecast or moves faster than forecast since it has not developed yet.
6:40PM EDT 26 September 2025 Update
Advisory packages are now out on NINE (Potential Tropical Cyclone formerly tracked as Invest 94L)
Ciel
Original Update
With echos of 2024, after a confounding long duration pause during the "peak" of the season that lulled many into complacency, the Atlantic basin is off to the races as we close out the month of September.
Hurricane Humberto is on the fast track to become a Major, our third of the year, and could accomplish this as soon as this afternoon. The updated NHC track has Bermuda in the Cone as well as potentially the Right Front Quadrant, where more often than not, the strongest weather occurs (wind, rain, flooding, surge, waterspouts, etc). There is a reasonable chance that Humberto reaches mid/high-end Saffir-Simpson Cat 4, and in fact, Cat 5 is not at all out of the question. In addition, Humberto has been growing larger, so impacts will likely be felt on the island regardless of whether or not there is a direct strike.
Invest 94L continues organizing and NHC Advisories could be coming out at any time whether or not a TC has yet formed, as tropical storm/hurricane conditions and storm surge could be coming to the Bahamas and Southeast US within 72 hours. While the ramp for Rapid Intensification does not look as easy for 94L as it appears to be for Humberto, 94L could also become a powerful hurricane. In addition, a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) is setting up in states along the southeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic. Between the PRE and likely-Imelda-to-be, flooding may become widespread and potentially locally catastrophic. Interests in states such as Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia may want to begin paying very close attention to official forecasts and warnings for 94L/Imelda, and take all prudent precautions.
Model deep dives and speculations in the Forecast Lounge:
Humberto Forecast Lounge
Imelda Forecast Lounge
Overnight, Imelda continued to organize deep convection despite nearby dry air and occasional dry air intrusions, and has become a stout Cat 1 hurricane. Further strengthening is probable and forecast, although not assured. There is a fair chance of significant strengthening now that Imelda is better organized and could fight off shear and dry air for a while as it tracks towards Bermuda, which all guidance has in its sights between 36-48 or so hours from now. The Hurricane Watch for Bermuda could soon become a Hurricane Warning.
Ciel
5AM EDT 28 September 2025 Update
More northerly motion has begun on TD#9 and the models have finally reached a decent consensus, which matches the current forecast track. T#9 is forecast to stay east of Florida (some areas along the east coast may see some squally weather) and make a hard right turn out to sea probably around Daytona and follow Humberto out to sea. Bermuda should watch, but the risk to the southeast ts rapidly decreasing.
11AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Tropical Depression Nine has formed.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
from discussion:
Given the risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the east coast of
Florida, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line. Although it is still too early to specify the details of
potential impacts along the remainder of the southeast U.S. coast,
there remains a risk of heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind
impacts.
10AM EDT 27 September 2025 Update
Humberto is now a powerful category 4 hurricane and is forecast to become a 5, the cone takes it north of Bermuda, but those there should monitor it closely.
For PTC9 it may develop later today, and the official forecast stall sit offshore of South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for most of the Bahamas this weekend as it will pass through there. Dryer air in the Gulf will likely keep most of the convection and rain away from Florida as it passes by, as the storm doesn't have much on the west side, most areas in Florida won't see any rain from it. Beyond the Bahamas it's currently expected to stall offshore, but possibly close enough to South Carolina for some impacts there, and then head generally out to sea. There's is still a high degree of uncertainty, but that is currently the most likely. Everyone along the southeast and Bermuda should monitor this system, as things could change, especially if the system forms north of forecast or moves faster than forecast since it has not developed yet.
6:40PM EDT 26 September 2025 Update
Advisory packages are now out on NINE (Potential Tropical Cyclone formerly tracked as Invest 94L)
Quote:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of thenorthwestern Bahamas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island.
Ciel
Original Update
With echos of 2024, after a confounding long duration pause during the "peak" of the season that lulled many into complacency, the Atlantic basin is off to the races as we close out the month of September.
Hurricane Humberto is on the fast track to become a Major, our third of the year, and could accomplish this as soon as this afternoon. The updated NHC track has Bermuda in the Cone as well as potentially the Right Front Quadrant, where more often than not, the strongest weather occurs (wind, rain, flooding, surge, waterspouts, etc). There is a reasonable chance that Humberto reaches mid/high-end Saffir-Simpson Cat 4, and in fact, Cat 5 is not at all out of the question. In addition, Humberto has been growing larger, so impacts will likely be felt on the island regardless of whether or not there is a direct strike.
Invest 94L continues organizing and NHC Advisories could be coming out at any time whether or not a TC has yet formed, as tropical storm/hurricane conditions and storm surge could be coming to the Bahamas and Southeast US within 72 hours. While the ramp for Rapid Intensification does not look as easy for 94L as it appears to be for Humberto, 94L could also become a powerful hurricane. In addition, a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) is setting up in states along the southeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic. Between the PRE and likely-Imelda-to-be, flooding may become widespread and potentially locally catastrophic. Interests in states such as Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia may want to begin paying very close attention to official forecasts and warnings for 94L/Imelda, and take all prudent precautions.
Model deep dives and speculations in the Forecast Lounge:
Humberto Forecast Lounge
Imelda Forecast Lounge
Humberto Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Humberto
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Humberto
CyclonicWx Page for Humberto
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Humberto
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Humberto
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Humberto
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Humberto -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Imelda Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Imelda
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Imelda
CyclonicWx Page for Imelda
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Imelda
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Imelda (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Imelda
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Imelda
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Imelda -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Bermuda Newspapers/Media/Info:
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