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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
      Thu Sep 09 2004 11:31 AM

11AM Update
NHC Official Track shifts left a bit at 11, now toward West Coast of Florida again Late Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. The hurricane center also states, however, that they are very uncertain with the track at present.

10AM Update
All non-residents and visitors to the Florida Keys are now under a mandatory evacuation order. As of 9AM Today. At 7AM tomorrow the Keys will undergo a phased evacuation for residents as well.


Monroe County Emergency Management

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan is now a strong and rare Category 5 Hurricane, the highest on the scale.

Ivan is moving west Northwest in the Caribbean Sea. The Latest recon has recorded a windspeed at 151 Knots at flight level, which indicates the sustained ground windspeed may be even higher than the 160MPH at the 5AM National Hurricane Center Advisory.



Right now it still has room to get a little bit stronger. I am not sure if it will reach Gilbert levels or not, but it is possible. It is important to note that if it got to Florida, it would not be at its current intensity, it would likely be lower. Hopefully much lower.

This is not good news at all for Jamaica if it heads ion its current path. Luckily storms like this usually don't hold extreme strength too long. But if the conditions allow it for further strengthening it may still be a or category 5 or strong 4 at landfall for Jamaica. However the official forecast calls for it to weaken a bit before then.

Tropical Depression Ten formed in the east Atlantic, near the Azores. It's moving Northeast and looks to be a fiish spinner (not affecting land) for the most part.

More to come later today.

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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 09 2004 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic jimm034   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Ivan Intensifying Again? recmod   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic bill095   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Sadie   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic AgentB   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Wingman51   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Trough SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Trough SirCane   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Trough scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Map updates SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Map updates tenavilla   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Map updates scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Map updates tenavilla   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Map updates NorminCanada   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Map updates RedFred   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Map updates jth   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Map updates SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Map updates Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Map updates HCW   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Thank you from stormy Orlando in orlando   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Thank you from stormy Orlando Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:29 PM
. * * south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS rickonboat   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS Kovacs   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS MaryLou   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS AgentB   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:13 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS trinibaje   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS AgentB   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:47 PM
. * * IRONIC??? SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Re: IRONIC??? trinibaje   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: IRONIC??? Kdubs   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS alan   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Thank you from stormy Orlando DEBORAH2002   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic SirCane   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic USAFWXGuy   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:54 PM
. * * comparison from skeetobite Jamiewx   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:02 PM
. * * Re: comparison from skeetobite HCW   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 PM
. * * 11 am Forecast moves a little west...even worse for FL Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Terra   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic ticka1   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Kimster   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Kimster   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic Bev   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Water Vapor Pics danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Water Vapor Pics doug   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Pics danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Water Vapor Pics scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:04 PM
. * * GOM Discussion -Effect on Ivan? Bev   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Florida Keys WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys dbair   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys mlamay   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys kelcot   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:28 PM
. * * Trough SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Trough jth   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys Scared in Canada   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:24 PM
. * * heart out to all in Florida char   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:49 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida tenavilla   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:25 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Ed in Va   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:43 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Ed in Va   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:42 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:05 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Storm Cooper   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:32 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:07 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Steve   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:38 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Frank P   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:22 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida jaybythebay   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters Tropics Guy   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:46 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters SirCane   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:14 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters Kdubs   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:11 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:42 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters CoachH   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:18 PM
. * * NWS MIAMI WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:22 PM
. * * GULF activity bobbi   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Re: GULF activity SirCane   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:44 PM
. * * Re: GULF activity rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:50 PM
. * * SSTs for GOM Frank P   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: GULF activity Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:02 PM
. * * I cant see that kind of weakening Alex. K   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:12 PM
. * * NEW THREAD LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM
. * * RAMSDIS LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re:TWC Sam33   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:36 PM
. * * Re: NWS MIAMI Ed in Va   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:35 PM
. * * Re: NWS MIAMI LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:38 PM
. * * Re: NWS MIAMI WeatherNLU   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: NWS MIAMI wxman007   Thu Sep 09 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: NWS MIAMI Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:48 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters recmod   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters Ed in Va   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:10 PM
. * * Re: South Fla jitters trinibaje   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:09 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:52 PM
. * * Steve LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:48 PM
. * * cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) rickonboat   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:46 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) Richiesurfs   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) mojorox   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) richiesurfs   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:36 PM
. * * naturally, some get offended rickonboat   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:23 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) GaryC   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:20 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) Colleen A.   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:37 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) SOFLHAPPYGAL   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:55 PM
. * * What the heck? palmetto   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:59 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) Tarpon   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) doug   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US) andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Steve SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:14 PM
. * * Dvoraks LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Dvoraks alley   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Dvoraks LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Dvoraks alley   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Ed in Va   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:15 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:19 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:20 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:23 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Lis   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida martha   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:27 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Terra   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:32 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Sadie   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida nick_in_st.pete   Thu Sep 09 2004 08:22 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Kimster   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:25 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Benny   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:47 PM
. * * Cat 2 and Cat 5 NOT same beast. Bev   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:12 PM
. * * Jamaica, Caymans & 9/11 LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Caymans Recovery recmod   Thu Sep 09 2004 07:46 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida StormHound   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida Kimster   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: heart out to all in Florida AgentB   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Maps and long range forecasts rickonboat   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Maps and long range forecasts StormHound   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Maps and long range forecasts tenavilla   Thu Sep 09 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Maps and long range forecasts Kdubs   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Maps and long range forecasts char   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM
. * * will miss Jamaica rickonboat   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica Ed in Va   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica GaryC   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:20 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica TinaLee   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:26 PM
. * * Tina's Attachment LI Phil   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Tina's Attachment scottsvb1   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Tina's Attachment andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tina's Attachment HCW   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Tina's Attachment Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Tina's Attachment Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 06:30 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica Kimberley Clark   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:30 PM
. * * GaryC SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:24 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica MrSpock   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: will miss Jamaica GaryC   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Maps and long range forecasts tenavilla   Thu Sep 09 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:09 PM
. * * From Monroe County Emergency Management Jamiewx   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys andy1tom   Thu Sep 09 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys jlauderdal   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys jth   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys jth   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Florida Keys danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Ivan tending a tad more west this morning rickonboat   Thu Sep 09 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Ivan tending a tad more west this morning doug   Thu Sep 09 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic ticka1   Thu Sep 09 2004 11:42 AM

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