MikeC
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7AM EDT 7 June 2011 Update
The system near Jamaica (94L) is being heavily impacted by windshear today, and chances for development are dropping quickly, although parts of the system main remain, it appears that very little if any rain from this system will occur in Florida. The trough coming out it may be enough to break the overall dry pattern for later.
The rest of the Atlantic is fairly quiet too.
7AM EDT 6 June 2011 Update
The disturbance near Jamaica (94L) is a little less organized this morning, it's very difficult to find a low level circulation (or even if one still exists), and it may have moved west of the deep convection, and there is no sign of anything trying to reform closer to where the activity is.
Likely this means it will hold it's status today at around 30-50% chance for development, models are extremely spread out in where this system may eventually go, but it seems that if the low level circulation moves westward it will be less likely to do much.
Pressures in the area have been falling though, which is an indicator that it won't go away anytime soon.
Recon is scheduled to go out this afternoon, and if it does there may be a much better idea of what is going on around it. It's too early to tell if there will be any rain from this in the US (Jamaica and Hispaniola will continue to see the rains from it until it moves off)
5PM EDT 5 June 2011 Update
The area in the Caribbean, 94L, has a higher chance to develop than before, around 40%, but still is not certain, the area is very broad today and there is still no real signs of the low level circulation getting much convection wise. If it manages to get both good outflow and convection over the low level circulation, then chances start to go up for development.
No recon went out today after all, but one is scheduled for tomorrow. Models are all over the place, one trend is that if the storm strengthens (especially quickly) it tends to favor more westward direction, if it does not develop it will stay more easterly. Odds still slightly favor it not developing, and remaining weak.
For direction, and travel, until a system develops, the models tend to to be very inaccurate.
Original Update
The area of low pressure, southwest of Jamaica (known as 94L) has managed to persist through some of the worst conditions for development recently, and now is actually in a position that does allow some development. Convection in the area is on the increase this morning, and if it persists will slowly raise chances for development. Right now the National Hurricane Center gives it a 30% shot to develop within the next 2 days. What is going against it is a lack of convection on the western side of the area, which is keeping it from organizing all that much.
Movement is going to be very difficult to call as there is no organized center of circulation, models are split, but the possibility of it moving back westward have gone up, but this depends on how long the system hangs out in the Caribbean, which could be days, or even most of the week. If it does move more westward, the chances of it running into higher shear are greater, and thus would keep it weak.
Although recon was scheduled the last two days, all flights were cancelled. However for today, conditions seem well enough that the recon aircraft may actually go out. With data from that we may have a better idea what is going on there.
Just to the north of the system is a strong stream of dry air, but the system is remaining south of that, which may allow it to drift a bit further west. Although the highest likelihood is that it remains east and out, the chance of it moving back toward the Yucatan are slowly going up, but it will be a long wait to determine it.
Most of the time systems in June do not do all that much, the general conditions are not quite set up for it, but the possibility remains since it likely to remain pretty much where it is this week. Which means it must be watched through .
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doug
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Looks to be a developing system. There are signs of a developing ridge to the west and the system is on the eastern periphery of that. The pattern to the north is breaking down. Would not be surprised by some westward movement and intensification.
-------------------- doug
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chase 22
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I agree with Doug. It looks much more impressive now than it did a couple of days ago. If it does move West however, wouldn't it run into some pretty decent shear?
-------------------- Matt
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Hugh
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It does look more impressive than at one point, but it still is discombobulated.
There's an obvious LLC, but the convection is displaced from it. They've pulled the trigger at times
in these situations, and at other times, not pulled it. In any case, I don't see much rapid development unless
the environment drastically improves. Still, it's the most likely to develop invest we've had this season so far.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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okihabu
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I aint no expert like you folks, but that Low sitting up by Ms, Ls have a effect on where this Invest will go?
-------------------- Chuck Good
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Hugh
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Quote:
I aint no expert like you folks, but that Low sitting up by Ms, Ls have a effect on where this Invest will go?
Only marginally, I think. It's too far away and too weak.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
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It's satellite presentation is better today and it seems to be getting more vertically stacked. If this structure persists, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD declared either late today or early tomorrow. The models are still inconclusive, though.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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Edski
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NHC has it up to a 40% chance now. IR loop seems to show an outflow feature over SE Cuba. Looks better to my untrained eyes than it did 3 hours ago.
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Hugh
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It looks like a TD. Yet cancelled today's recon flight, so it won't be a TD today.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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weathernet
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Though the tops have significantly cooled this afternoon, i'd have to say it appears that 94L has made significant strides during the day. Looks to possibly be forming a LLC around 17N & 78W ( though one might make an argument for rotation a couple degrees east of that point). indicated a general westward motion, which I think is the first time this system seems to have had enough consolidation to determine motion. Sure enough, looking at the loop this afternoon, it would appear a slow westward motion may be underway.
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WesnWylie
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Looking at the recent satellite loop here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php, it looks like 94L could be winding up this afternoon. I definitely see the circulation developing. With shear forecast to remain about the same or even weaken some more, I think we could see a Tropical Depression develop fairly soon. There does not appear to be much dry air across the region to hinder organization over the next couple days. It will be interesting to see what the puts 94L's chances at later today.
-------------------- 2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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MikeC
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I still don't think we'll see much from this system, other than rain. There are plenty of places in Florida and along the Gulf that need the rain, so a weak tropical system would be beneficial.
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MichaelA
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Rain without damaging winds would be great for Florida right now. 94L still is looking fairly well organized this afternoon. If this organization persists, I still believe that a TD will be declared, at least sometime tomorrow. Some of the models are beginning to indicate a system moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but the HWRF has been really consistent in moving it to the NE into the Atlantic. Of course, the models will remain inconsistent from run to run until there is a definite center to initialize on.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
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94L certainly looks much more disorganized today than it did yesterday. Not much of a LL center south of Grand Cayman, and there seems to be a mid-level vortex near 15N; 79W. The 0600 still develops a strong TD/weak TS and moves it into the eastern GOM on Friday/Saturday while the moves a weak to moderate low across Florida. The dissipates the system pretty much in place and the HWRF still moves a system NE into the Atlantic. The splits between the and the HWRF models. As it appears this morning, I'm beginning to believe the is closer to being correct.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
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I don't know.. I think the system looks better now than 24hrs ago.
Finally the midlevels have moisture to work with. We see T-Storms
firing SW of the center of the circulation which now looks alittle
tighter than before,but still broad. Pressure has come down
slightly to 1007mb.. also recently T-Storms are just north of
the center near 18.1N and 82W... movement is slowly NW.
This needs to continue to increase its T-Storms around the COC
this evening and tonight.. if it does.. it wont take much to make this
a TD.. Ciruclation is well definded.. we just need T-Storms near
the center. Windshear will increase later on Tues-Thurs as it
approaches western Cuba.. so if this does develop.. it better
tonight.
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weathernet
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Yep, guess I'd have to "second" Michael's prior post, on both accounts. 94L has pretty much appeared to have wound down from yesterday, and at least to me appears to be a lazy broad eddy within a generally larger monsoonal low. Looking at "back to back" runs, it would appear that 94L may simply continue to drift westward with the low level flow, and simply cease to exist as an invest. Looking at this morning's 200mb -350mb winds, I see upper air conditions appearing to deteriorate in less than 48 hours. In what oddly would appear to be strengthening "El Nino" like sub tropical westerlies, very little "real estate" throughout the tropics would appear to look all too conducive for any significant development over the near term. Worse part is that we here in S. Florida ( not unlike many other areas as well ), may not even benefit from much of the moisture of 94L.
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danielw
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I saw a comment from a Tropical MET over the last few days referring to 94L as a " Sit and Spin LOW". Seems to be right on the mark.
Current surface CoC at 1731Z or 1:30 PM EDT is near... 18N/ 82W. Mid level center seems to be co-located to the east of the surface CoC.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
(X=298 Y=389)
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MichaelA
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2 PM ups it to 50%. I wonder what is seeing that I'm not.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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Bloodstar
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If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say it's because of the increasing convection around the center of the low along with a moistening of the atmosphere at the mid level heights.
It's a big sloppy mess, but the ingredients are there for something to form.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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scottsvb
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Quote:
Yep, guess I'd have to "second" Michael's prior post, on both accounts. 94L has pretty much appeared to have wound down from yesterday, and at least to me appears to be a lazy broad eddy within a generally larger monsoonal low. Looking at "back to back" runs, it would appear that 94L may simply continue to drift westward with the low level flow, and simply cease to exist as an invest. Looking at this morning's 200mb -350mb winds, I see upper air conditions appearing to deteriorate in less than 48 hours. In what oddly would appear to be strengthening "El Nino" like sub tropical westerlies, very little "real estate" throughout the tropics would appear to look all too conducive for any significant development over the near term. Worse part is that we here in S. Florida ( not unlike many other areas as well ), may not even benefit from much of the moisture of 94L.
Actually as you can see the said what I said 1 hour later.. .probably cause I know some of the staff there?
Anyways.. yesterday it wasnt as good as today. It was far away from the convection and yesterday you were seeing the midlevel swirl.
Tropical systems are all about the convection near a LLC.
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