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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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lonelymike
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Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Central Atlantic
      #88615 - Mon Aug 02 2010 07:23 PM

Sorry to go off topic, but just saw the 18ZGFS run has the wave in Eastern Carribean hit La in 170 hours as a hurricane. I saw that the CMC and NOGAPS sorta develop but run it into CA. Is there any reason to be concerned about this wave? I thought the GFS kinda overdid the trough as it usally does.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 02 2010 07:34 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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System Approaching Nicaragua [Re: lonelymike]
      #88616 - Mon Aug 02 2010 07:50 PM

I checked it out and that is the tropical wave currently approaching Nicaragua, so I'll assume that you meant to say western Caribbean. NHC expects that wave to move inland - if it hasn't done so already - so I can't figure out what the GFS did what it did. Here is a link to the steering currents (from SSEC, University of Wisconsin) that certainly supports the NHC expectation. I wouldn't worry about it - just an anomaly with the 18Z GFS that hopefully will not repeat on the 00Z run.
ED

SSEC Steering Currents


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lonelymike
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Re: System Approaching Nicaragua [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88617 - Mon Aug 02 2010 07:53 PM

Is the same wave that the NHC highlights in the latest TWO?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: System Approaching Nicaragua [Re: lonelymike]
      #88618 - Mon Aug 02 2010 08:40 PM

I did a little more research and I guess that its possible, but the wave in the far southeastern Caribbean Sea that is close to the coast of South America would really have to move along at a rapid pace. At 500MB the GFS does develop a feature along the coast of Columbia near the Venezuelan border at the 36-hour point - and it is this developing upper low that the model tracks toward Louisiana. This is roughly the same location where the model picks up a surface feature as well. If the high pressure system firmly in place in the south central U.S. pulls to the east then I guess that could allow a system to move north through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf on the western edge of the high pressure system.

Possible, yes - but thats a lot of 'if's' for something that would be a week away. Worth keeping an eye on though - especially in a couple of days. Note that the earlier 12Z run of the CMC took the same system into Belize (based on the high pressure ridge remaining in place to the north).
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 02 2010 08:50 PM)


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EaglezFan42
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Models? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88627 - Mon Aug 02 2010 10:59 PM

This might be a bit off topic, but given TD #4's low latitude and models trying to figure out if a northward movement is in the works sooner or later or not, I've tried searching quite a few places to find early models of Hurricane Charley and other storms originating in this area of the Atlantic but I haven't been able to find any...
Do any websites keep spaghetti plots from previous years' storms?
Thanks!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: System Approaching Nicaragua [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88629 - Tue Aug 03 2010 12:44 AM

Note that the 03/00Z GFS model run no longer identifies the system at all - of course it didn't identify TD4 either. Never put too much stock in just one model run - if a trend develops over a few runs then it might be worth looking at.
Cheers,
ED


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lonelymike
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Re: Models? [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #88661 - Tue Aug 03 2010 07:25 PM

Storm2k archives there old discussion threads which usually contain the model plots.

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lonelymike
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Re: Models? [Re: lonelymike]
      #88664 - Tue Aug 03 2010 09:14 PM

This disturbance is now up as 92-L

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models? [Re: lonelymike]
      #88665 - Tue Aug 03 2010 09:27 PM

Maps and Coordinates on the left has model plots back to 2004 or so.

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