Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Idalia) , Major: 229 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 229 (Idalia) Major: 229 (Idalia)

Archives 2010s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Storm Flossie (East Pacific) Lounge
      #94566 - Tue Jul 23 2013 04:20 PM

Quite unusual for a Lounge thread on an East Pacific Invest, however, Invest 98E, located at 12.0N 115.6W at 23/18Z, does have a chance for additional development and it could bring some weather to the Hawaiian Islands in about a week. At 18Z the winds were sustained at 25 knots, pressure was 1007MB, convection was slowly developing, and movement was to the west southwest at 10 knots. SSTs are 29C but they become a few degrees cooler near and west of 135W longitude. Some of the models suggest additional development. The next name on the Eastern Pacific list is Flossie. Infrequently whenever a system might pose a potential threat to the Hawaiian Islands we will start an appropriate thread to cover it - remember this thread is only for long range discussion of Invest 98 E .

(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 25 2013 11:27 AM)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 98E (East Pacific) Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94567 - Tue Jul 23 2013 07:52 PM

A tidbit from the Honolulu WFO Area Forecast Discussion:
"The forecast for early next week is highly uncertain since a tropical system may be approaching the islands."

The 23/18Z GFS continues to bring a tropical cyclone into the Hawaiian Islands next Tuesday. It would be a rare event for Hawaii to experience a tropical cyclone moving in from the East - normally they come into the Islands from the South or even the Southwest. Still a considerable amount of time to see how this system evolves. Latest satellite loops suggest that the developing center may be forming a little more to the south closer to 11N rather than 12N. At 24/00Z a weak circulation center is noted at 11.2N 117.8W.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Weather Guru

Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Re: Invest 98E (East Pacific) Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94584 - Wed Jul 24 2013 11:44 PM

As of 11:00 EDT (8:00 PDT) this has been upgraded to TD 6-E, about 2200 miles ESE of Hilo.

This looks like one of those typical systems that form in this area and run into the wall of low SST's and end up reaching the islands as a low cloud swirl. Generally speaking these systems have to stay below about 15N to be able to reach the longitude of the Hawaiian islands as more than a dying TD (such as 1994's John, which actually reached the Western Pacific - a 3-basin storm!). This one is not even predicted by NHC to reach hurricane status before hitting 24-25 deg. SST's in about 3 days. Hopefully there may be enough left of the system to bring some rain to the islands, especially the Big Island, parts of which are in extreme drought.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Topic views: 2804

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center