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Weather Analyst

Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Beatriz Remnants in Gulf of Mexico
      #97624 - Wed May 31 2017 04:36 PM

Euro and GFS have been "arguing" about a low developing in the GOM in the next 7-10 days and up pops TD-2 in EPAC...the future of this is not clear: movement to NE toward Yucatan or meander off shore of southern Mexico for a few days before movement
Perhaps this system is what these two models have been hinting at for a few days...
The season is here!

Title changed to reflect that the remnants of EPAC TWO (Which became a weak TS, 'Beatriz,' before coming onshore in the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca) are now in the southern Gulf of Mexico as of Saturday June, 3 and are interacting with an upper-level trough to its west and north, as well as prohibitively (for tropical cyclone development) high wind shear. Should this feature develop at some point (a non-zero chance, but very low in the near term), it might not keep the same name. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Jun 04 2017 06:15 PM)

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Weather Guru

Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: E-PAC TD 2 [Re: doug]
      #97625 - Wed May 31 2017 09:57 PM

Just noticed that several models are bringing it through Mexico, and slightly developing it in the GOM. Its early but bares watching. The Bay of Campeche is very warm. Northern gulf is significantly cooler at this point and should hinder development.

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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Beatriz Remnants in Bay of Campeche [Re: doug]
      #97638 - Sat Jun 03 2017 02:19 PM

Something of interest for Florida, mostly because of the potential for this remnant/hybrid low to help pump up copious moisture for the next few days.

A few model runs also still hint at the possibility for some kind of regeneration next week, but given that 'Beatriz' has mostly lost its identity already, any new development might be considered a separate, but related system.

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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Beatriz Remnants in Bay of Campeche [Re: cieldumort]
      #97640 - Sun Jun 04 2017 02:31 AM

Saw some of the long-range models a few days ago hinting at something in North Florida. Looks like you are of the opinion the rain heads across the middle of the state instead of higher in the state as some still suggest. God knows we need rain in CFL but 3 more inches.. yikes.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Jun 04 2017 02:32 AM)

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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Beatriz Remnants in Bay of Campeche [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #97642 - Sun Jun 04 2017 02:19 PM

Today's QPF Day 3 Outlook from WPC (National Weather Service - Weather Prediction Center) continues expecting some heavy and potentially flooding rains over central Florida on Tuesday. The map from the post above is a three day running total ending Tuesday morning. The map below looks at their forecast for Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning (picking up where the map above leaves off, and thus these totals would be in addition to and on top of totals that added up through Tuesday morning).

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