F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
20.3N 93.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
Nnw at 7 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 


Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

Pages: 1
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2314
Loc: Austin, Tx
Arlene Lounge
      #114540 - Wed May 31 2023 08:44 PM

An impressive pre-season area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has formed and has now been Invest tagged, 91L. Even though the chance for significant development is modest, given the location close to land and certain impacts regardless of development, we are starting a Lounge on this hybrid system.

Conditions for development into a bona fide tropical cyclone are fair this week, but are expected to become less conducive by the weekend. Whether or not 91L gets a name, moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the peninsula through the weekend.


NHC determined that Invest 91L has sufficiently organized to be classified as a Tropical Cyclone and advisoires on TD TWO began at 4PM CDT June 1, 2023, and the title has been updated accordingly. (Arlene as of 1PM CT June 2)
Ciel


Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jun 02 2023 05:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114542 - Thu Jun 01 2023 11:55 AM

Looks like 91 L is expected to head south now and conditions will not be as wet for Central Florida.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 91L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #114543 - Thu Jun 01 2023 12:12 PM

50/50 as of this morning. Satellite presentation looks fairly impressive, but there is some SW to NE vertical sheer evident. The models are in agreement on a slow southerly drift toward western Cuba.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: 91L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #114545 - Thu Jun 01 2023 05:43 PM

I'm a bit surprised that this fella is gaining traction. Haven't had a chance to check models, but wanted to say hi to everyone and welcome back!

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 492
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: 91L Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #114546 - Thu Jun 01 2023 06:11 PM

And so it begins - 2023 is off to a fast start.

All this week in SFL we have been under a flood watch... its the normal afternoon thunderstorms but they have been really strong and occurring over the same spots. Two weeks ago we even had hail which is very rare.

Quick check of the models show south motion so this could drop a lot of rain on already saturated ground.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: 91L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #114547 - Thu Jun 01 2023 06:14 PM

Why is it that this system is expected to move south rather than the usual northward direction that most GOMEX storms take ?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2314
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD Two Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114549 - Fri Jun 02 2023 02:30 PM

The cyclone keeps finding itself occasional sweet spots within an otherwise less-than-ideal shear environment. In addition, it remains less deep than we often see in the tropics, unsurprising given its hybrid origins, and the worst of the shearing impacts higher up in the atmosphere are not always impacting it.

This morning recon is finding several areas, primarily in the northeast quadrant, with winds worthy of a named storm.

Track-wise, there are hints in some models of the system hanging on despite increasingly hostile shear over the weekend, and looping back to the northeast after a forecast track towards Cuba. Resilient systems can sometimes be cat-like, with multiple lives.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 492
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: TD Two Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114550 - Sat Jun 03 2023 04:37 PM

Shear really blew this thing apart. The low level spin is still intact but nothing can wrap around it. Looks more like a late season storm that reached the end of its run.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: TD Two Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114551 - Sat Jun 03 2023 08:18 PM

Torrential rain here in Wekiva of Orlando. Torrential. There is likely some flooding damage that is out of the ordinary.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 300
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: TD Two Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #114552 - Sun Jun 04 2023 09:21 PM

Please share... we are parched over here along the coast in central Volusia- going on 2 weeks w/o measurable precip.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 1854

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center